Language:English
Luxembourg v Bulgaria
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Luxembourg (Local)
Prediction 44.12%2.27fair odd
EV -5.15%
Edge -2.40%
Kelly -4.48%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.20%44.25%43.98%46.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.082.102.1550.00%48.08%47.62%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Bulgaria (Visit)
Prediction 26.74%3.74fair odd
EV -0.006%
Edge -0.002%
Kelly -0.002%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.89%26.70%26.86%27.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.523.503.7430.30%28.43%28.57%26.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.15%3.43fair odd
EV -0.899%
Edge -0.264%
Kelly -0.374%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.75%29.05%29.16%30.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.243.233.4033.33%30.91%31.01%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luxembourg (Local): 44.12%; Bulgaria (Visit): 26.74%; Draw: 29.15%. For Bulgaria (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.7402. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.7400, with an expected value of -0.006%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -5.15%E -2.40%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -9.10%E -2.68%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -3.81%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-05 14:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -5.15%E -2.40%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.42%E -1.84%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.73%E -2.10%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-05 14:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -5.15%E -2.40%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -9.10%E -2.68%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.27%E -1.62%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-05 11:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -5.15%E -2.40%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -9.10%E -2.68%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -8.19%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-05 14:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -5.15%E -2.40%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -9.10%E -2.68%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -8.19%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-05 14:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.46%EV -6.03%E -2.83%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.89%EV -0.006%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.65%EV -1.48%E -0.438%K -0.623%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-05 11:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 43.47%EV -6.03%E -2.83%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.23%EV -9.10%E -2.68%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 29.30%EV -7.89%E -2.50%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-05 14:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.54%EV -6.47%E -3.05%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -9.10%E -2.68%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -8.19%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-05 11:55 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.28%EV -6.47%E -3.05%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 27.31%EV -10.17%E -3.03%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.41%EV -9.06%E -2.90%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-05 14:14 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.21%EV -6.47%E -3.05%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -9.10%E -2.68%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 29.84%EV -10.52%E -3.43%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-05 14:11 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.45%EV -6.91%E -3.28%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.92%EV -1.08%E -0.291%K -0.398%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.63%EV -2.36%E -0.703%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-05 11:50 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 43.48%EV -6.91%E -3.28%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 27.30%EV -10.17%E -3.03%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 29.22%EV -8.48%E -2.70%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-05 11:48 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -7.36%E -3.50%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.24%EV -2.41%E -0.661%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.16%EV -0.899%E -0.264%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-05 15:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -7.36%E -3.50%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -3.75%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -3.81%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-05 11:51 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -7.36%E -3.50%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -9.10%E -2.68%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.73%E -2.10%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-05 12:16 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -7.36%E -3.50%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.42%E -1.84%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.64%E -3.11%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-05 12:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -7.36%E -3.50%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.42%E -1.84%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.64%E -3.11%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-05 12:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -7.36%E -3.50%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.42%E -1.84%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.64%E -3.11%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-05 12:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -7.36%E -3.50%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.10%E -2.68%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -8.19%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-05 12:13 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -7.36%E -3.50%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -11.77%E -3.57%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.73%E -2.10%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-05 14:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.36%E -3.50%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -9.10%E -2.68%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -9.64%E -3.11%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-05 11:52 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.36%E -3.50%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.42%E -1.84%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.56%E -4.19%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-05 12:15 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.36%E -3.50%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.42%E -1.84%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.56%E -4.19%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-05 12:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.36%E -3.50%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.42%E -1.84%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.56%E -4.19%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-05 12:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -9.56%E -4.66%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.75%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -0.899%E -0.264%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-05 09:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -9.56%E -4.66%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -3.75%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -3.81%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-05 09:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -9.56%E -4.66%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -3.75%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -3.81%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-05 09:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -9.56%E -4.66%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -3.75%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -3.81%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-05 09:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -9.56%E -4.66%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -6.42%E -1.84%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.73%E -2.10%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 11:51 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.75%EV -9.56%E -4.66%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -7.76%E -2.25%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.73%E -2.10%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-05 12:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.75%EV -9.56%E -4.66%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -7.76%E -2.25%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.73%E -2.10%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-05 12:16 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -9.56%E -4.66%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -9.10%E -2.68%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -12.56%E -4.19%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-05 12:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -10.00%E -4.90%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -2.41%E -0.661%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -0.899%E -0.264%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-05 09:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -10.00%E -4.90%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -2.41%E -0.661%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -0.899%E -0.264%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-05 09:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -10.00%E -4.90%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -2.41%E -0.661%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -0.899%E -0.264%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-05 09:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -10.00%E -4.90%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -2.41%E -0.661%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -0.899%E -0.264%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-05 09:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -10.00%E -4.90%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -2.41%E -0.661%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -0.899%E -0.264%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-05 09:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -10.00%E -4.90%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -2.41%E -0.661%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -0.899%E -0.264%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-05 09:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -10.00%E -4.90%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -2.41%E -0.661%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -0.899%E -0.264%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-05 09:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -10.00%E -4.90%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -2.41%E -0.661%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -0.899%E -0.264%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-05 09:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -11.77%E -5.88%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%EV -5.09%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -3.81%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-05 09:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -11.77%E -5.88%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%EV -5.09%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -3.81%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-05 09:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -11.77%E -5.88%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%EV -5.09%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -3.81%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-05 09:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -11.77%E -5.88%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -6.42%E -1.84%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -3.81%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-05 11:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.73% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78% | 0.7% | 2026-10-05 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.73% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78% | 0.7% | 2026-10-05 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.73% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78% | 0.7% | 2026-10-05 13:56 |