Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luxembourg v Bulgaria

2026-10-06 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luxembourg (Local)

Prediction 47.14%2.12fair odd
EV -4.77%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -4.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.53%47.29%47.16%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.861.981.982.0253.76%50.61%50.51%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bulgaria (Visit)

Prediction 25.20%3.97fair odd
EV +1.54%
Edge +0.382%
Kelly +0.508%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 4.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.91%25.26%25.27%26.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.663.604.0330.30%27.33%27.78%24.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.66%3.62fair odd
EV -0.424%
Edge -0.118%
Kelly -0.163%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.07%27.45%27.57%29.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.123.353.353.6032.05%29.81%29.85%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Luxembourg (Local): 47.14%; Bulgaria (Visit): 25.20%; Draw: 27.66%. For Bulgaria (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.97. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.03, producing a positive expected value of +1.54%.

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.44%EV -5.71%E -2.86%K -5.71%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 24.04%EV +1.54%E +0.382%K +0.508%G +0.008%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.52%EV -2.64%E -0.749%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-04 18:13
Marathon Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.39%EV -6.65%E -3.36%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.07%EV +0.278%E +0.070%K +0.093%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.53%EV -3.74%E -1.08%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-04 18:06
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.60%EV -5.71%E -2.86%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -1.74%E -0.445%K -0.599%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -5.96%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-04 12:50
Neds🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.90%EV -7.60%E -3.88%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -1.74%E -0.445%K -0.599%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -7.34%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-04 12:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.90%EV -7.60%E -3.88%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -1.74%E -0.445%K -0.599%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -7.34%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-04 12:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.83%EV -8.07%E -4.14%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -1.74%E -0.445%K -0.599%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.72%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-04 12:50
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -8.07%E -4.14%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -4.26%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -8.72%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 18:05
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.77%EV -8.07%E -4.14%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -4.26%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.23%EV -13.70%E -4.39%K -6.46%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-04 18:11
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.77%EV -8.07%E -4.14%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -4.26%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.23%EV -13.70%E -4.39%K -6.46%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-04 18:09
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.39%EV -6.65%E -3.36%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -5.52%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -5.96%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 12:50
BetUS🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -8.07%E -4.14%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -5.52%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.96%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-04 19:01
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -8.07%E -4.14%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -5.52%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -11.49%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-04 18:05
BetMGM🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.43%EV -9.01%E -4.67%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.41%EV -5.52%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.16%EV -10.10%E -3.11%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-04 12:50
LeoVegas🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.06%EV -6.65%E -3.36%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -8.04%E -2.20%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -5.96%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 19:00
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.21%EV -4.77%E -2.36%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.30%E -2.58%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -7.34%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 12:46
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.21%EV -4.77%E -2.36%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.30%E -2.58%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -7.34%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 12:50
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.21%EV -4.77%E -2.36%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.30%E -2.58%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -7.34%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 12:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.21%EV -4.77%E -2.36%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.30%E -2.58%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -7.34%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 12:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.21%EV -4.77%E -2.36%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.30%E -2.58%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -7.34%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 12:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.21%EV -4.77%E -2.36%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.30%E -2.58%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -7.34%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 12:50
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.21%EV -4.77%E -2.36%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.30%E -2.58%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -7.34%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 12:50
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.21%EV -4.77%E -2.36%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.30%E -2.58%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -7.34%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 12:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.21%EV -4.77%E -2.36%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.30%E -2.58%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -7.34%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 12:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.21%EV -4.77%E -2.36%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.30%E -2.58%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -7.34%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 12:50
Bally Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.21%EV -4.77%E -2.36%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.30%E -2.58%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -7.34%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 12:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -5.71%E -2.86%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -9.30%E -2.58%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.96%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-04 17:05
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.71%E -2.86%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -9.30%E -2.58%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -10.10%E -3.11%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-04 12:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.71%E -2.86%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -9.30%E -2.58%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -10.10%E -3.11%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-04 12:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.71%E -2.86%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -9.30%E -2.58%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -10.10%E -3.11%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-04 12:50
Bovada🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.19%EV -6.18%E -3.11%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.30%E -2.58%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -10.10%E -3.11%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-04 18:54
Suprabets🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.31%EV -6.65%E -3.36%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -9.30%E -2.58%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -10.10%E -3.11%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-04 18:52
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -8.07%E -4.14%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.30%E -2.58%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.72%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-04 12:50
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -8.07%E -4.14%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.30%E -2.58%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.72%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-04 18:15
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -8.07%E -4.14%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -10.56%E -2.97%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -1.81%E -0.509%K -0.708%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 12:50
ReBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.78%EV -8.54%E -4.40%K -9.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.11%EV -10.56%E -2.97%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.11%EV -1.81%E -0.509%K -0.708%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 18:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.54%EV -10.90%E -5.77%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.84%EV -10.56%E -2.97%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.62%EV -0.977%E -0.273%K -0.379%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-04 18:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -9.01%E -4.67%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -11.82%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -3.19%E -0.911%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-04 12:49
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -5.71%E -2.86%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -11.82%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -11.49%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-04 13:26
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.00%EV -11.37%E -6.05%K -12.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -15.59%E -4.66%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.07%EV -0.424%E -0.118%K -0.163%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-04 12:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.73%EV -12.31%E -6.62%K -14.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -16.85%E -5.11%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -3.19%E -0.911%K -1.28%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-04 12:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.18%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.89%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.93%1.7%2026-10-04 19:01
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.18%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.89%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.93%1.7%2026-10-04 19:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.18%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.89%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.93%1.7%2026-10-04 19:01