Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lyon v Celta Vigo

Kickoff: 2026-03-19 17:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lyon (Local)

Prediction 44.26%2.26fair odd
EV -0.406%
Edge -0.180%
Kelly -0.325%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.08%44.24%44.29%46.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.122.122.2550.00%47.19%47.17%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Celta Vigo (Visit)

Prediction 26.87%3.72fair odd
EV +2.12%
Edge +0.558%
Kelly +0.757%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.25%26.92%26.82%28.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.533.503.8030.30%28.30%28.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.86%3.46fair odd
EV -0.714%
Edge -0.208%
Kelly -0.293%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.33%28.84%28.89%29.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.253.253.4432.26%30.76%30.77%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lyon (Local): 44.26%; Celta Vigo (Visit): 26.87%; Draw: 28.86%. For Celta Vigo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.72. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.65%EV -6.16%E -2.91%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.47%EV +2.12%E +0.558%K +0.757%G +0.016%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89%EV -3.31%E -0.988%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-19 17:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.65%EV -6.16%E -2.91%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.47%EV +2.12%E +0.558%K +0.757%G +0.016%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89%EV -3.31%E -0.988%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-19 17:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.65%EV -6.16%E -2.91%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.47%EV +2.12%E +0.558%K +0.757%G +0.016%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89%EV -3.31%E -0.988%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-19 17:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.45%EV -6.16%E -2.91%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.36%EV +2.12%E +0.558%K +0.757%G +0.016%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.20%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-19 17:29
LowVig.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.95%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV +0.776%E +0.207%K +0.282%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.28%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-19 17:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.95%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV +0.776%E +0.207%K +0.282%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.28%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-19 17:39
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.29%EV -6.16%E -2.91%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.61%EV +0.776%E +0.207%K +0.282%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.10%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-19 17:30
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.17%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.58%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.25%EV -3.31%E -0.988%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-19 17:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 17:30
Casumo🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 17:30
Unibet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 17:29
betPARX🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 17:29
Bally Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 17:30
Grosvenor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 17:30
TABtouch🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 17:29
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 17:30
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.60%EV -3.95%E -1.82%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.51%EV -1.91%E -0.524%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89%EV -3.31%E -0.988%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-19 17:40
ReBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.32%EV -3.95%E -1.82%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.71%EV -3.25%E -0.904%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.97%EV -4.18%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-19 17:19
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.47%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.56%EV -3.25%E -0.904%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.97%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-19 17:19
BetUS🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.27%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -3.25%E -0.904%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-19 17:40
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.25%E -0.904%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-19 17:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -3.25%E -0.904%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-19 17:30
Suprabets🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.75%EV -3.95%E -1.82%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.59%EV -4.06%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-19 17:38
Codere (IT)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.83%EV -4.60%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-19 17:19
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.11%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -4.60%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.18%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-19 17:39
Marathon Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.50%EV -3.95%E -1.82%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.43%EV -5.40%E -1.54%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.07%EV -0.714%E -0.208%K -0.293%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-19 17:39
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.82%EV -0.406%E -0.180%K -0.325%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.53%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-19 17:39
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.82%EV -0.406%E -0.180%K -0.325%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.53%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-19 17:39
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-19 17:40
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-19 17:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-19 17:38
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-19 17:00
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 17:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 17:00
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-19 17:00
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-19 17:00
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-19 17:29
Caesars🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-19 17:28
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -11.47%E -5.74%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-19 17:29
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -11.47%E -5.74%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-19 17:30
Bovada🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.03%EV -3.50%E -1.61%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -7.29%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -9.08%E -2.88%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 17:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -7.29%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-19 17:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-19 17:40
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -1.87%E -0.550%K -0.778%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 17:19
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-19 17:40
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.01%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-19 17:39
Fliff🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -9.08%E -2.88%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-19 17:39
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -9.97%E -2.98%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 17:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -9.97%E -2.98%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 17:39
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -9.97%E -2.98%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 17:40
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -2.62%E -1.19%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 17:39
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 17:40
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -2.62%E -1.19%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-19 17:39
TAB🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -2.62%E -1.19%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-19 17:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-19 17:39
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-19 17:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-19 17:40
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-19 17:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.32%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-03-19 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.69%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.57%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-03-19 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.65%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.16%0.5%2026-03-19 17:39
Smarkets2.30I 43.48%NM 43.13%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-03-19 17:40
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 43.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.70%1.1%2026-03-19 17:40
Matchbook2.28I 43.86%NM 43.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.71%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%1.2%2026-03-19 17:40