L’École des cotes

Lyon v Celta Vigo

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-19 17:45 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Lyon (Local)

Prévision 44.26%2.26cote équitable
EV -0.406%
Avantage -0.180%
Kelly -0.325%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.25

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
42.08%44.24%44.29%46.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.002.122.122.2550.00%47.19%47.17%44.44%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Celta Vigo (Visiteur)

Prévision 26.87%3.72cote équitable
EV +2.12%
Avantage +0.558%
Kelly +0.757%
Croissance +0.016%

avec la cote maximale 3.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.25%26.92%26.82%28.32%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.303.533.503.8030.30%28.30%28.57%26.32%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 28.86%3.46cote équitable
EV -0.714%
Avantage -0.208%
Kelly -0.293%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.44

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.33%28.84%28.89%29.86%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.253.253.4432.26%30.76%30.77%29.07%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Unibet (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 45.65%EV -6.16%E -2.91%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.47%EV +2.12%E +0.558%K +0.757%G +0.016%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89%EV -3.31%E -0.988%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-19 17:30
ATG (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 45.65%EV -6.16%E -2.91%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.47%EV +2.12%E +0.558%K +0.757%G +0.016%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89%EV -3.31%E -0.988%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-19 17:30
Svenska Spel2.12I 47.17%NM 45.65%EV -6.16%E -2.91%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.47%EV +2.12%E +0.558%K +0.757%G +0.016%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89%EV -3.31%E -0.988%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-19 17:30
Unibet (NL)2.12I 47.17%NM 45.45%EV -6.16%E -2.91%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.36%EV +2.12%E +0.558%K +0.757%G +0.016%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.20%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-19 17:29
LowVig.ag2.15I 46.51%NM 44.95%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV +0.776%E +0.207%K +0.282%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.28%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-19 17:30
BetOnline.ag2.15I 46.51%NM 44.95%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV +0.776%E +0.207%K +0.282%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.28%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-19 17:39
Coolbet2.12I 47.17%NM 45.29%EV -6.16%E -2.91%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.61%EV +0.776%E +0.207%K +0.282%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.10%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-19 17:30
Parions Sport (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.17%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.58%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.25%EV -3.31%E -0.988%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-19 17:39
LeoVegas (SE)2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 17:30
Casumo2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 17:30
Unibet2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 17:29
betPARX2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 17:29
Bally Bet2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 17:30
Grosvenor2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 17:30
TABtouch2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 17:29
BetRivers2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 17:30
Pinnacle2.17I 46.08%NM 44.60%EV -3.95%E -1.82%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.51%EV -1.91%E -0.524%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89%EV -3.31%E -0.988%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-19 17:40
ReBet2.17I 46.08%NM 44.32%EV -3.95%E -1.82%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.71%EV -3.25%E -0.904%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.97%EV -4.18%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-19 17:19
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.47%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.56%EV -3.25%E -0.904%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.97%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-19 17:19
BetUS2.15I 46.51%NM 44.27%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -3.25%E -0.904%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-19 17:40
Everygame2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.25%E -0.904%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-19 17:39
Betr (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -3.25%E -0.904%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-19 17:30
Suprabets2.17I 46.08%NM 43.75%EV -3.95%E -1.82%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.59%EV -4.06%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-19 17:38
Codere (IT)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.83%EV -4.60%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-19 17:19
DraftKings2.15I 46.51%NM 44.11%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -4.60%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.18%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-19 17:39
Marathon Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 44.50%EV -3.95%E -1.82%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.43%EV -5.40%E -1.54%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.07%EV -0.714%E -0.208%K -0.293%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-19 17:39
NordicBet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.82%EV -0.406%E -0.180%K -0.325%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.53%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-19 17:39
Betsson2.25I 44.44%NM 42.82%EV -0.406%E -0.180%K -0.325%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.53%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-19 17:39
BetMGM2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-19 17:40
Coral2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-19 17:39
Betclic (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-19 17:38
Fanatics2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-19 17:00
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 17:00
PMU (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 17:00
FanDuel2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-19 17:00
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-19 17:00
NetBet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-19 17:29
Caesars2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-19 17:28
Virgin Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -11.47%E -5.74%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-19 17:29
LiveScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -11.47%E -5.74%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-19 17:30
Bovada2.18I 45.87%NM 43.03%EV -3.50%E -1.61%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -7.29%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -9.08%E -2.88%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 17:39
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -7.29%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-19 17:39
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-19 17:40
Sky Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -1.87%E -0.550%K -0.778%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 17:19
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-19 17:40
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.01%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-19 17:39
Fliff2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -9.08%E -2.88%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-19 17:39
Neds2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -9.97%E -2.98%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 17:39
Ladbrokes (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -9.97%E -2.98%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 17:39
Bet Right2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -9.97%E -2.98%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 17:40
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -2.62%E -1.19%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 17:39
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 17:40
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -2.62%E -1.19%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-19 17:39
TAB2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -2.62%E -1.19%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-19 17:39
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-19 17:39
888sport2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-19 17:39
888sport (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-19 17:40
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-19 17:39
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.32%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-03-19 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.69%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.57%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-03-19 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.65%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.16%0.5%2026-03-19 17:39
Smarkets2.30I 43.48%NM 43.13%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-03-19 17:40
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 43.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.70%1.1%2026-03-19 17:40
Matchbook2.28I 43.86%NM 43.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.71%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%1.2%2026-03-19 17:40