La escuela de los momios

Lyon v Celta Vigo

Inicio: 2026-03-19 17:45 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Lyon (Local)

Predicción 44.26%2.26momio equitativo
EV -0.406%
Ventaja -0.180%
Kelly -0.325%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.08%44.24%44.29%46.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.122.122.2550.00%47.19%47.17%44.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Celta Vigo (Visitante)

Predicción 26.87%3.72momio equitativo
EV +2.12%
Ventaja +0.558%
Kelly +0.757%
Crecimiento +0.016%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.25%26.92%26.82%28.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.533.503.8030.30%28.30%28.57%26.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.86%3.46momio equitativo
EV -0.714%
Ventaja -0.208%
Kelly -0.293%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.44

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.33%28.84%28.89%29.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.253.253.4432.26%30.76%30.77%29.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 45.65%EV -6.16%E -2.91%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.47%EV +2.12%E +0.558%K +0.757%G +0.016%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89%EV -3.31%E -0.988%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-19 17:30
ATG (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 45.65%EV -6.16%E -2.91%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.47%EV +2.12%E +0.558%K +0.757%G +0.016%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89%EV -3.31%E -0.988%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-19 17:30
Svenska Spel2.12I 47.17%NM 45.65%EV -6.16%E -2.91%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.47%EV +2.12%E +0.558%K +0.757%G +0.016%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89%EV -3.31%E -0.988%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-19 17:30
Unibet (NL)2.12I 47.17%NM 45.45%EV -6.16%E -2.91%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.36%EV +2.12%E +0.558%K +0.757%G +0.016%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.20%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-19 17:29
LowVig.ag2.15I 46.51%NM 44.95%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV +0.776%E +0.207%K +0.282%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.28%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-19 17:30
BetOnline.ag2.15I 46.51%NM 44.95%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV +0.776%E +0.207%K +0.282%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.28%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-19 17:39
Coolbet2.12I 47.17%NM 45.29%EV -6.16%E -2.91%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.61%EV +0.776%E +0.207%K +0.282%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.10%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-19 17:30
Parions Sport (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.17%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.58%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.25%EV -3.31%E -0.988%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-19 17:39
LeoVegas (SE)2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 17:30
Casumo2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 17:30
Unibet2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 17:29
betPARX2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 17:29
Bally Bet2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 17:30
Grosvenor2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 17:30
TABtouch2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 17:29
BetRivers2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 17:30
Pinnacle2.17I 46.08%NM 44.60%EV -3.95%E -1.82%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.51%EV -1.91%E -0.524%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89%EV -3.31%E -0.988%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-19 17:40
ReBet2.17I 46.08%NM 44.32%EV -3.95%E -1.82%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.71%EV -3.25%E -0.904%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.97%EV -4.18%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-19 17:19
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.47%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.56%EV -3.25%E -0.904%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.97%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-19 17:19
BetUS2.15I 46.51%NM 44.27%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -3.25%E -0.904%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-19 17:40
Everygame2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.25%E -0.904%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-19 17:39
Betr (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -3.25%E -0.904%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-19 17:30
Suprabets2.17I 46.08%NM 43.75%EV -3.95%E -1.82%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.59%EV -4.06%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-19 17:38
Codere (IT)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.83%EV -4.60%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-19 17:19
DraftKings2.15I 46.51%NM 44.11%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -4.60%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.18%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-19 17:39
Marathon Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 44.50%EV -3.95%E -1.82%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.43%EV -5.40%E -1.54%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.07%EV -0.714%E -0.208%K -0.293%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-19 17:39
NordicBet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.82%EV -0.406%E -0.180%K -0.325%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.53%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-19 17:39
Betsson2.25I 44.44%NM 42.82%EV -0.406%E -0.180%K -0.325%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.53%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-19 17:39
BetMGM2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-19 17:40
Coral2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-19 17:39
Betclic (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-19 17:38
Fanatics2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-19 17:00
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 17:00
PMU (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 17:00
FanDuel2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-19 17:00
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-19 17:00
NetBet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-19 17:29
Caesars2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-19 17:28
Virgin Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -11.47%E -5.74%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-19 17:29
LiveScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -11.47%E -5.74%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-19 17:30
Bovada2.18I 45.87%NM 43.03%EV -3.50%E -1.61%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -7.29%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -9.08%E -2.88%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 17:39
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -7.29%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-19 17:39
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-19 17:40
Sky Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -1.87%E -0.550%K -0.778%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 17:19
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-19 17:40
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.01%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-19 17:39
Fliff2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -9.08%E -2.88%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-19 17:39
Neds2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -9.97%E -2.98%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 17:39
Ladbrokes (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -9.97%E -2.98%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 17:39
Bet Right2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -9.97%E -2.98%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 17:40
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -2.62%E -1.19%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 17:39
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 17:40
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -2.62%E -1.19%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-19 17:39
TAB2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -2.62%E -1.19%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-19 17:39
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-19 17:39
888sport2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-19 17:39
888sport (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -4.83%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-19 17:40
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-19 17:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.32%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-03-19 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.69%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.57%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-03-19 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.65%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.16%0.5%2026-03-19 17:39
Smarkets2.30I 43.48%NM 43.13%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-03-19 17:40
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 43.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.70%1.1%2026-03-19 17:40
Matchbook2.28I 43.86%NM 43.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.71%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%1.2%2026-03-19 17:40