Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lille v Aston Villa

Kickoff: 2026-03-12 17:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lille (Local)

Prediction 28.87%3.46fair odd
EV +3.07%
Edge +0.860%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.037%

assuming max odds 3.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.13%28.94%28.84%32.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.243.253.5734.48%30.86%30.77%28.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Aston Villa (Visit)

Prediction 41.81%2.39fair odd
EV +1.60%
Edge +0.658%
Kelly +1.12%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.68%41.75%41.85%43.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.272.252.4346.51%44.13%44.44%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.32%3.41fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.532%
Kelly -0.759%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.36%29.31%29.31%30.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.223.253.3532.26%31.05%30.77%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lille (Local): 28.87%; Aston Villa (Visit): 41.81%; Draw: 29.32%. For Lille (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.46. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.07%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.57I 28.01%NM 27.13%EV +3.07%E +0.860%K +1.20%G +0.037%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.43%EV -6.76%E -3.03%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.44%EV -3.54%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-12 17:40
Marathon Bet🎯3.38I 29.59%NM 28.73%EV -2.41%E -0.714%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 42.03%EV -3.42%E -1.48%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.24%EV -2.66%E -0.802%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-12 17:40
Pinnacle🎯3.38I 29.59%NM 28.65%EV -2.41%E -0.714%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.92%EV -3.42%E -1.48%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.43%EV -3.54%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-12 17:40
Unibet (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 29.19%EV -3.28%E -0.979%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.61%EV -1.75%E -0.743%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.19%EV -1.78%E -0.532%K -0.759%G +0.000%2.3%2026-03-12 17:05
ATG (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 29.19%EV -3.28%E -0.979%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.61%EV -1.75%E -0.743%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.19%EV -1.78%E -0.532%K -0.759%G +0.000%2.3%2026-03-12 17:05
Svenska Spel🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 29.19%EV -3.28%E -0.979%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.61%EV -1.75%E -0.743%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.19%EV -1.78%E -0.532%K -0.759%G +0.000%2.3%2026-03-12 17:05
Unibet (NL)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.96%EV -3.28%E -0.979%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.64%EV -2.58%E -1.11%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.40%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-12 17:05
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.54%EV -3.28%E -0.979%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.49%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.97%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-12 17:35
Betclic (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.49%EV -3.28%E -0.979%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.50%EV -3.84%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.01%EV -6.77%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-12 17:25
LowVig.ag🎯3.32I 30.12%NM 29.12%EV -4.15%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.03%EV -3.84%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.86%EV -1.78%E -0.532%K -0.759%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-12 17:25
BetOnline.ag🎯3.32I 30.12%NM 29.12%EV -4.15%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.03%EV -3.84%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.86%EV -1.78%E -0.532%K -0.759%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-12 17:25
ReBet🎯3.32I 30.12%NM 28.94%EV -4.15%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.59%EV -3.42%E -1.48%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.47%EV -4.42%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-12 16:50
Suprabets🎯3.31I 30.21%NM 28.66%EV -4.44%E -1.34%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.97%EV -5.51%E -2.44%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.37%EV -5.30%E -1.64%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 17:31
NordicBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.84%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-12 17:25
Betsson🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.84%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-12 17:30
Coolbet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.09%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.38%EV -3.00%E -1.29%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.54%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-12 13:35
DraftKings🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-12 12:19
Codere (IT)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.50%EV -4.26%E -1.86%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.70%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-12 08:00
theScore Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 07:59
BetUS🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 10:45
Caesars🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-12 08:19
888sport🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 17:40
William Hill🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 17:40
888sport (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 17:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 17:40
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.61%EV -4.67%E -2.05%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 17:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.61%EV -4.67%E -2.05%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 17:05
Casumo🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.61%EV -4.67%E -2.05%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 17:05
Bally Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.61%EV -4.67%E -2.05%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 17:05
betPARX🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.61%EV -4.67%E -2.05%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 17:05
Grosvenor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 17:05
TABtouch🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 17:05
BetRivers🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 17:05
Bet Victor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-12 17:40
SportsBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-12 17:35
PMU (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-12 17:35
NetBet (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.61%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -7.18%E -3.24%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.51%EV -7.65%E -2.43%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-12 17:40
Winamax (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 06:45
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-12 08:00
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 17:35
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 17:35
TAB🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.91%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -7.65%E -2.43%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-12 17:40
BoyleSports🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -10.11%E -4.70%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-12 09:35
PlayUp🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -9.05%E -2.87%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-12 17:40
Winamax (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -9.05%E -2.87%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.91%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-12 08:00
LiveScore Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV -9.05%E -2.87%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.75%EV -8.85%E -4.06%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-12 17:05
Virgin Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV -9.05%E -2.87%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.75%EV -8.85%E -4.06%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-12 17:05
Coral🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -3.84%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 12:35
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -3.84%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 12:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -3.84%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 12:35
Neds🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -3.84%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 12:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -3.84%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 12:35
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -3.84%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-12 17:20
Bet Right🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-12 17:35
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-12 17:35
Fliff🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-12 17:40
Betr (AU)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -11.94%E -3.92%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -1.75%E -0.743%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-12 04:59
Bovada🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.41%EV -16.27%E -5.61%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.68%EV +1.60%E +0.658%K +1.12%G +0.018%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-12 17:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.55I 28.17%NM 28.13%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.61%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.26%0.1%2026-03-12 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.50I 28.57%NM 28.42%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.44%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.14%0.5%2026-03-12 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.50I 28.57%NM 28.42%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.44%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.14%0.5%2026-03-12 17:40
Smarkets3.50I 28.57%NM 28.42%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.44%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.14%0.5%2026-03-12 17:40
Matchbook3.50I 28.57%NM 28.42%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.44%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.14%0.5%2026-03-12 17:35
Kalshi3.33I 30.03%NM 29.16%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.68%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.16%3.0%2026-03-12 16:55