La escuela de los momios

Lille v Aston Villa

Inicio: 2026-03-12 17:45 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Lille (Local)

Predicción 28.87%3.46momio equitativo
EV +3.07%
Ventaja +0.860%
Kelly +1.20%
Crecimiento +0.037%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.13%28.94%28.84%32.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.903.243.253.5734.48%30.86%30.77%28.01%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Aston Villa (Visitante)

Predicción 41.81%2.39momio equitativo
EV +1.60%
Ventaja +0.658%
Kelly +1.12%
Crecimiento +0.018%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.43

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.68%41.75%41.85%43.43%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.152.272.252.4346.51%44.13%44.44%41.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.32%3.41momio equitativo
EV -1.78%
Ventaja -0.532%
Kelly -0.759%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.36%29.31%29.31%30.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.223.253.3532.26%31.05%30.77%29.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet3.57I 28.01%NM 27.13%EV +3.07%E +0.860%K +1.20%G +0.037%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.43%EV -6.76%E -3.03%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.44%EV -3.54%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-12 17:40
Marathon Bet3.38I 29.59%NM 28.73%EV -2.41%E -0.714%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 42.03%EV -3.42%E -1.48%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.24%EV -2.66%E -0.802%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-12 17:40
Pinnacle3.38I 29.59%NM 28.65%EV -2.41%E -0.714%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.92%EV -3.42%E -1.48%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.43%EV -3.54%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-12 17:40
Unibet (SE)3.35I 29.85%NM 29.19%EV -3.28%E -0.979%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.61%EV -1.75%E -0.743%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.19%EV -1.78%E -0.532%K -0.759%G +0.000%2.3%2026-03-12 17:05
ATG (SE)3.35I 29.85%NM 29.19%EV -3.28%E -0.979%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.61%EV -1.75%E -0.743%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.19%EV -1.78%E -0.532%K -0.759%G +0.000%2.3%2026-03-12 17:05
Svenska Spel3.35I 29.85%NM 29.19%EV -3.28%E -0.979%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.61%EV -1.75%E -0.743%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.19%EV -1.78%E -0.532%K -0.759%G +0.000%2.3%2026-03-12 17:05
Unibet (NL)3.35I 29.85%NM 28.96%EV -3.28%E -0.979%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.64%EV -2.58%E -1.11%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.40%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-12 17:05
Parions Sport (FR)3.35I 29.85%NM 28.54%EV -3.28%E -0.979%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.49%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.97%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-12 17:35
Betclic (FR)3.35I 29.85%NM 28.49%EV -3.28%E -0.979%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.50%EV -3.84%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.01%EV -6.77%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-12 17:25
LowVig.ag3.32I 30.12%NM 29.12%EV -4.15%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.03%EV -3.84%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.86%EV -1.78%E -0.532%K -0.759%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-12 17:25
BetOnline.ag3.32I 30.12%NM 29.12%EV -4.15%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.03%EV -3.84%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.86%EV -1.78%E -0.532%K -0.759%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-12 17:25
ReBet3.32I 30.12%NM 28.94%EV -4.15%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.59%EV -3.42%E -1.48%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.47%EV -4.42%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-12 16:50
Suprabets3.31I 30.21%NM 28.66%EV -4.44%E -1.34%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.97%EV -5.51%E -2.44%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.37%EV -5.30%E -1.64%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 17:31
NordicBet3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.84%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-12 17:25
Betsson3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.84%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-12 17:30
Coolbet3.30I 30.30%NM 29.09%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.38%EV -3.00%E -1.29%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.54%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-12 13:35
DraftKings3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-12 12:19
Codere (IT)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.50%EV -4.26%E -1.86%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.70%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-12 08:00
theScore Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 07:59
BetUS3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 10:45
Caesars3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-12 08:19
888sport3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 17:40
William Hill3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 17:40
888sport (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 17:40
Mr Green (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 17:40
Unibet3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.61%EV -4.67%E -2.05%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 17:05
LeoVegas (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.61%EV -4.67%E -2.05%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 17:05
Casumo3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.61%EV -4.67%E -2.05%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 17:05
Bally Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.61%EV -4.67%E -2.05%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 17:05
betPARX3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.61%EV -4.67%E -2.05%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 17:05
Grosvenor3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 17:05
TABtouch3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 17:05
BetRivers3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 17:05
Bet Victor3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-12 17:40
SportsBet3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-12 17:35
PMU (FR)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-12 17:35
NetBet (FR)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.61%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -7.18%E -3.24%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.51%EV -7.65%E -2.43%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-12 17:40
Winamax (DE)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 06:45
Fanatics3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-12 08:00
FanDuel3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 17:35
Paddy Power3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 17:35
TAB3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.91%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -7.65%E -2.43%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-12 17:40
BoyleSports3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -10.11%E -4.70%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-12 09:35
PlayUp3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -9.05%E -2.87%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-12 17:40
Winamax (FR)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -9.05%E -2.87%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.91%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-12 08:00
LiveScore Bet3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV -9.05%E -2.87%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.75%EV -8.85%E -4.06%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-12 17:05
Virgin Bet3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV -9.05%E -2.87%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.75%EV -8.85%E -4.06%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-12 17:05
Coral3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -3.84%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 12:35
BetMGM3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -3.84%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 12:35
Ladbrokes (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -3.84%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 12:35
Neds3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -3.84%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 12:35
Ladbrokes (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -3.84%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 12:35
Betway3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -3.84%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-12 17:20
Bet Right3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -5.93%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-12 17:35
Sky Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-12 17:35
Fliff3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.02%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-12 17:40
Betr (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -11.94%E -3.92%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -1.75%E -0.743%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-12 04:59
Bovada2.90I 34.48%NM 32.41%EV -16.27%E -5.61%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.68%EV +1.60%E +0.658%K +1.12%G +0.018%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-12 17:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.55I 28.17%NM 28.13%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.61%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.26%0.1%2026-03-12 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.50I 28.57%NM 28.42%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.44%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.14%0.5%2026-03-12 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.50I 28.57%NM 28.42%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.44%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.14%0.5%2026-03-12 17:40
Smarkets3.50I 28.57%NM 28.42%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.44%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.14%0.5%2026-03-12 17:40
Matchbook3.50I 28.57%NM 28.42%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.44%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.14%0.5%2026-03-12 17:35
Kalshi3.33I 30.03%NM 29.16%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.68%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.16%3.0%2026-03-12 16:55