The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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NK Celje v FC Drita

Kickoff: 2026-02-26 17:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

NK Celje (Local)

Prediction 66.84%1.50fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -5.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.10%66.71%66.97%69.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.401.401.4674.63%71.41%71.43%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Drita (Visit)

Prediction 13.44%7.44fair odd
EV +7.55%
Edge +0.944%
Kelly +1.08%
Growth +0.081%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.98%13.53%13.47%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.917.008.0016.67%14.47%14.29%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.71%5.07fair odd
EV +1.52%
Edge +0.296%
Kelly +0.367%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 5.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.17%19.76%19.56%21.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.694.755.1523.09%21.32%21.05%19.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: NK Celje (Local): 66.84%; FC Drita (Visit): 13.44%; Draw: 19.71%. For FC Drita (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.44. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.55%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.42%EV -7.76%E -5.62%K -20.41%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.98%EV +7.55%E +0.944%K +1.08%G +0.081%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.60%EV +1.52%E +0.296%K +0.367%G +0.006%4.4%2026-02-26 17:25
Pinnacle🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.79%EV -5.75%E -4.08%K -14.03%G +0.000%7.91I 12.64%NM 12.08%EV +6.34%E +0.801%K +0.917%G +0.058%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.12%EV -6.36%E -1.34%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-26 17:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.01%EV -6.42%E -4.59%K -16.05%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.36%EV +3.52%E +0.457%K +0.525%G +0.018%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.63%EV -4.39%E -0.905%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-26 17:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.01%EV -6.42%E -4.59%K -16.05%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.36%EV +3.52%E +0.457%K +0.525%G +0.018%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.63%EV -4.39%E -0.905%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-26 17:30
DraftKings🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.76%EV -5.75%E -4.08%K -14.03%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.74%EV +0.828%E +0.110%K +0.127%G +0.001%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.50%EV -3.41%E -0.695%K -0.873%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-26 17:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.42%E -4.59%K -16.05%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.73%EV +0.828%E +0.110%K +0.127%G +0.001%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -1.43%E -0.287%K -0.359%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-26 17:40
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.23%EV -7.76%E -5.62%K -20.41%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.55%EV +0.828%E +0.110%K +0.127%G +0.001%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -3.41%E -0.695%K -0.873%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-26 17:40
FanDuel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -7.76%E -5.62%K -20.41%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV +0.828%E +0.110%K +0.127%G +0.001%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -5.38%E -1.12%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-26 17:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.30%EV -9.76%E -7.23%K -27.89%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV +0.828%E +0.110%K +0.127%G +0.001%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -6.36%E -1.34%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-26 17:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.30%EV -9.76%E -7.23%K -27.89%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV +0.828%E +0.110%K +0.127%G +0.001%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -6.36%E -1.34%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-26 17:40
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.14%EV -10.43%E -7.78%K -30.68%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.69%EV -1.86%E -0.255%K -0.295%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.17%EV +0.537%E +0.105%K +0.131%G +0.001%7.9%2026-02-26 17:40
Bovada🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.65%EV -7.76%E -5.62%K -20.41%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.69%EV -2.53%E -0.349%K -0.405%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.67%EV -12.28%E -2.76%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-26 17:38
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.42%E -4.59%K -16.05%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -5.89%E -0.842%K -0.982%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -1.43%E -0.287%K -0.359%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-26 17:15
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -6.42%E -4.59%K -16.05%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -5.89%E -0.842%K -0.982%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -13.26%E -3.01%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-26 17:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -6.42%E -4.59%K -16.05%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -5.89%E -0.842%K -0.982%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -13.26%E -3.01%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-26 17:26
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -6.42%E -4.59%K -16.05%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -5.89%E -0.842%K -0.982%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -13.26%E -3.01%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-26 17:25
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -6.42%E -4.59%K -16.05%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -5.89%E -0.842%K -0.982%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -13.26%E -3.01%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-26 17:25
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -9.09%E -6.69%K -25.26%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -5.89%E -0.842%K -0.982%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -5.38%E -1.12%K -1.42%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-26 17:38
SportsBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -9.09%E -6.69%K -25.26%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -5.89%E -0.842%K -0.982%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -9.32%E -2.03%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-26 17:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.45%EV -7.09%E -5.10%K -18.17%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -9.26%E -1.37%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.86%EV -8.33%E -1.79%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-26 17:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.08%EV -9.09%E -6.69%K -25.26%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -9.26%E -1.37%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.41%EV -7.35%E -1.56%K -1.99%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-26 17:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.53%EV -10.43%E -7.78%K -30.68%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.21%EV -9.26%E -1.37%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -13.26%E -3.01%K -3.90%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-26 17:35
Fliff🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.71%EV -8.42%E -6.15%K -22.77%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.64%EV -9.93%E -1.48%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.65%EV -8.33%E -1.79%K -2.28%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-26 17:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -3.75%E -2.60%K -8.51%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -12.62%E -1.94%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -5.38%E -1.12%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-26 17:40
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -3.75%E -2.60%K -8.51%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -12.62%E -1.94%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -5.38%E -1.12%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-26 17:40
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.71%EV -3.08%E -2.12%K -6.84%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -12.62%E -1.94%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -11.29%E -2.51%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-26 17:40
Bet Right🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.48%EV -5.08%E -3.58%K -12.10%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -12.62%E -1.94%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -9.32%E -2.03%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-26 17:40
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.19%EV -7.76%E -5.62%K -20.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -12.62%E -1.94%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -1.43%E -0.287%K -0.359%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-26 17:35
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.65%EV -9.09%E -6.69%K -25.26%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -12.62%E -1.94%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -14.64%E -3.38%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.0%2026-02-26 17:35
Betsson🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.26%EV -2.41%E -1.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.66%EV -13.96%E -2.18%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.08%EV -12.28%E -2.76%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-26 17:40
NordicBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.26%EV -2.41%E -1.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.66%EV -13.96%E -2.18%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.08%EV -12.28%E -2.76%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-26 17:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.24%EV -4.41%E -3.09%K -10.27%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 14.69%EV -14.63%E -2.30%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.06%EV -8.33%E -1.79%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-26 17:40
1xBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.13%EV -2.41%E -1.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%6.28I 15.92%NM 15.14%EV -15.57%E -2.48%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 19.73%EV -4.98%E -1.03%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-26 17:40
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.21%EV -3.75%E -2.60%K -8.51%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -15.98%E -2.56%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV -6.36%E -1.34%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-26 17:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.21%EV -3.75%E -2.60%K -8.51%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -15.98%E -2.56%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV -6.36%E -1.34%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-26 17:40
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -3.75%E -2.60%K -8.51%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -19.34%E -3.22%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -11.29%E -2.51%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-26 17:40
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.26%EV -4.41%E -3.09%K -10.27%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -19.34%E -3.22%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -11.29%E -2.51%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-26 17:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.67%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.43%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.90%0.5%2026-02-26 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.46%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.71%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%0.8%2026-02-26 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.87%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.70%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43%0.9%2026-02-26 17:40