The School of Odds
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Lyon v Arsenal

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 13:00 UTC

Final: Lyon 3–1 Arsenal

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lyon (Local)

Prediction 58.56%1.71fair odd
EV -5.14%
Edge -3.17%
Kelly -8.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.33%58.45%58.49%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.561.571.6268.03%63.99%63.69%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arsenal (Visit)

Prediction 19.50%5.13fair odd
EV +2.37%
Edge +0.452%
Kelly +0.558%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.13%19.51%19.59%21.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.734.755.2523.53%21.16%21.05%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.95%4.56fair odd
EV -2.34%
Edge -0.527%
Kelly -0.679%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.76%22.04%21.92%23.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.054.004.4526.32%24.69%25.00%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lyon (Local): 58.56%; Arsenal (Visit): 19.50%; Draw: 21.95%. For Arsenal (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.13. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.37%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.24%EV -7.48%E -4.74%K -12.90%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV +2.37%E +0.452%K +0.558%G +0.013%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%EV -3.44%E -0.782%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 12:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.05%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.44%EV -0.552%E -0.108%K -0.135%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 12:20
Pinnacle🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.75%EV -8.07%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000%5.02I 19.92%NM 18.69%EV -2.11%E -0.421%K -0.525%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.56%EV -4.54%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 12:16
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -2.50%E -0.500%K -0.625%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 12:40
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -2.50%E -0.500%K -0.625%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 12:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -2.50%E -0.500%K -0.625%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 12:40
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -2.50%E -0.500%K -0.625%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 12:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -2.50%E -0.500%K -0.625%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 12:40
betPARX🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -2.50%E -0.500%K -0.625%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 12:40
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -6.40%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -7.83%E -1.86%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 12:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.79%EV -7.48%E -4.74%K -12.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -6.40%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -6.73%E -1.58%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-02 12:55
LeoVegas🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.13%EV -9.24%E -5.96%K -16.80%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.77%EV -6.40%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -14.41%E -3.70%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-02 12:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.27%EV -10.41%E -6.80%K -19.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.57%EV -6.40%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.16%EV -15.51%E -4.03%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-02 12:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.27%EV -10.41%E -6.80%K -19.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.57%EV -6.40%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.16%EV -15.51%E -4.03%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-02 12:40
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.37%EV -7.48%E -4.74%K -12.90%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -7.38%E -1.55%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.22%EV -8.93%E -2.15%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 12:55
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.37%EV -7.48%E -4.74%K -12.90%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -7.38%E -1.55%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.22%EV -8.93%E -2.15%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 12:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.30%EV -11.58%E -7.67%K -22.71%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.53%EV -7.38%E -1.55%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.17%EV -16.61%E -4.37%K -5.93%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-02 12:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.14%EV -13.92%E -9.47%K -29.63%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.81%EV -8.35%E -1.78%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.05%EV -7.83%E -1.86%K -2.45%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-02 12:55
Bovada🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.15%EV -8.65%E -5.55%K -15.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -10.30%E -2.24%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -10.02%E -2.45%K -3.23%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 12:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.40%EV -11.00%E -7.23%K -21.15%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.84%EV -11.28%E -2.48%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.76%EV -4.54%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-02 12:55
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.05%EV -8.07%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -12.25%E -2.72%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -7.83%E -1.86%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-02 12:55
William Hill🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.41%EV -9.24%E -5.96%K -16.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -12.25%E -2.72%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.82%EV -14.41%E -3.70%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-02 12:55
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.06%EV -10.41%E -6.80%K -19.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.74%EV -12.25%E -2.72%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.21%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-02 12:20
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.73%EV -10.41%E -6.80%K -19.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.63%EV -12.25%E -2.72%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -14.41%E -3.70%K -4.97%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-02 12:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.73%EV -10.41%E -6.80%K -19.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.63%EV -12.25%E -2.72%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -14.41%E -3.70%K -4.97%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-02 12:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.73%EV -10.41%E -6.80%K -19.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.63%EV -12.25%E -2.72%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -14.41%E -3.70%K -4.97%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-02 12:55
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.73%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -14.20%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.02%EV -2.34%E -0.527%K -0.679%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 12:55
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.09%EV -12.17%E -8.11%K -24.33%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.12%EV -15.57%E -3.60%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.78%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-30 23:59
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.77%EV -12.17%E -8.11%K -24.33%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.01%EV -15.57%E -3.60%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.22%EV -14.41%E -3.70%K -4.97%G +0.000%15.4%2026-05-02 12:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.33%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.09%EV -17.13%E -4.03%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.59%EV -16.61%E -4.37%K -5.93%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 12:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.36%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.92%1.4%2026-05-02 12:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.93%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.68%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.39%1.6%2026-05-02 12:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.68I 59.52%NM 58.50%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.66%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.84%1.7%2026-05-02 12:55
Smarkets◎1.64I 60.98%NM 58.57%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.60%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.83%4.1%2026-05-02 12:55