La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Lyon v Arsenal
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Lyon (Local)
Predicción 58.56%1.71momio equitativo
EV -5.14%
Ventaja -3.17%
Kelly -8.29%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.62
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.33%58.45%58.49%60.24%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.471.561.571.6268.03%63.99%63.69%61.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Arsenal (Visitante)
Predicción 19.50%5.13momio equitativo
EV +2.37%
Ventaja +0.452%
Kelly +0.558%
Crecimiento +0.013%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.13%19.51%19.59%21.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.254.734.755.2523.53%21.16%21.05%19.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 21.95%4.56momio equitativo
EV -2.34%
Ventaja -0.527%
Kelly -0.679%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.45
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.76%22.04%21.92%23.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.804.054.004.4526.32%24.69%25.00%22.47%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (30 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.24%EV -7.48%E -4.74%K -12.90%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV +2.37%E +0.452%K +0.558%G +0.013% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%EV -3.44%E -0.782%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-02 12:45 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.05%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.44%EV -0.552%E -0.108%K -0.135%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-02 12:20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.75%EV -8.07%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 5.02I 19.92%NM 18.69%EV -2.11%E -0.421%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.56%EV -4.54%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-02 12:16 |
| Grosvenor | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -2.50%E -0.500%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| Casumo | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -2.50%E -0.500%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -2.50%E -0.500%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| Unibet | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -2.50%E -0.500%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -2.50%E -0.500%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| betPARX | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -2.50%E -0.500%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| DraftKings | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -6.40%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -7.83%E -1.86%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.79%EV -7.48%E -4.74%K -12.90%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -6.40%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -6.73%E -1.58%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| LeoVegas | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.13%EV -9.24%E -5.96%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.77%EV -6.40%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -14.41%E -3.70%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.27%EV -10.41%E -6.80%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.57%EV -6.40%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.16%EV -15.51%E -4.03%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.27%EV -10.41%E -6.80%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.57%EV -6.40%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.16%EV -15.51%E -4.03%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| NordicBet | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.37%EV -7.48%E -4.74%K -12.90%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -7.38%E -1.55%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.22%EV -8.93%E -2.15%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Betsson | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.37%EV -7.48%E -4.74%K -12.90%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -7.38%E -1.55%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.22%EV -8.93%E -2.15%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.51I 66.23%NM 58.30%EV -11.58%E -7.67%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.53%EV -7.38%E -1.55%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.17%EV -16.61%E -4.37%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.14%EV -13.92%E -9.47%K -29.63%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.81%EV -8.35%E -1.78%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.05%EV -7.83%E -1.86%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Bovada | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.15%EV -8.65%E -5.55%K -15.45%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -10.30%E -2.24%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -10.02%E -2.45%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-02 12:54 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.40%EV -11.00%E -7.23%K -21.15%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 19.84%EV -11.28%E -2.48%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.76%EV -4.54%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Betway | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.05%EV -8.07%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -12.25%E -2.72%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -7.83%E -1.86%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| William Hill | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.41%EV -9.24%E -5.96%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -12.25%E -2.72%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.82%EV -14.41%E -3.70%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Paddy Power | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.06%EV -10.41%E -6.80%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.74%EV -12.25%E -2.72%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.21%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-02 12:20 |
| 888sport | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.73%EV -10.41%E -6.80%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.63%EV -12.25%E -2.72%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -14.41%E -3.70%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.73%EV -10.41%E -6.80%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.63%EV -12.25%E -2.72%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -14.41%E -3.70%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.73%EV -10.41%E -6.80%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.63%EV -12.25%E -2.72%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -14.41%E -3.70%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| 1xBet | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.73%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -14.20%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.02%EV -2.34%E -0.527%K -0.679%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| BoyleSports | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.09%EV -12.17%E -8.11%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.12%EV -15.57%E -3.60%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.78%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| SportsBet | 1.50I 66.67%NM 57.77%EV -12.17%E -8.11%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.01%EV -15.57%E -3.60%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.22%EV -14.41%E -3.70%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-05-02 12:20 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.33%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.09%EV -17.13%E -4.03%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.59%EV -16.61%E -4.37%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.36% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.73% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.92% | 1.4% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.93% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.68% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.39% | 1.6% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.50% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.66% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.84% | 1.7% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Smarkets | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.57% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.60% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.83% | 4.1% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |