L’École des cotesFrançais
Lyon v Arsenal
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Lyon (Local)
Prévision 58.56%1.71cote équitable
EV -5.14%
Avantage -3.17%
Kelly -8.29%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.62
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
55.33%58.45%58.49%60.24%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.471.561.571.6268.03%63.99%63.69%61.73%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Arsenal (Visiteur)
Prévision 19.50%5.13cote équitable
EV +2.37%
Avantage +0.452%
Kelly +0.558%
Croissance +0.013%
avec la cote maximale 5.25
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
18.13%19.51%19.59%21.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.254.734.755.2523.53%21.16%21.05%19.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Match nul
Prévision 21.95%4.56cote équitable
EV -2.34%
Avantage -0.527%
Kelly -0.679%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 4.45
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
20.76%22.04%21.92%23.59%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.804.054.004.4526.32%24.69%25.00%22.47%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Cotes des opérateurs (30 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur ▼ | Match nul | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.24%EV -7.48%E -4.74%K -12.90%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV +2.37%E +0.452%K +0.558%G +0.013% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%EV -3.44%E -0.782%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-02 12:45 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.05%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.44%EV -0.552%E -0.108%K -0.135%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-02 12:20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.75%EV -8.07%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 5.02I 19.92%NM 18.69%EV -2.11%E -0.421%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.56%EV -4.54%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-02 12:16 |
| Grosvenor | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -2.50%E -0.500%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| Casumo | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -2.50%E -0.500%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -2.50%E -0.500%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| Unibet | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -2.50%E -0.500%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -2.50%E -0.500%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| betPARX | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -2.50%E -0.500%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| DraftKings | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -6.40%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -7.83%E -1.86%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.79%EV -7.48%E -4.74%K -12.90%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -6.40%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -6.73%E -1.58%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| LeoVegas | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.13%EV -9.24%E -5.96%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.77%EV -6.40%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -14.41%E -3.70%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.27%EV -10.41%E -6.80%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.57%EV -6.40%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.16%EV -15.51%E -4.03%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.27%EV -10.41%E -6.80%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.57%EV -6.40%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.16%EV -15.51%E -4.03%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| NordicBet | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.37%EV -7.48%E -4.74%K -12.90%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -7.38%E -1.55%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.22%EV -8.93%E -2.15%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Betsson | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.37%EV -7.48%E -4.74%K -12.90%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -7.38%E -1.55%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.22%EV -8.93%E -2.15%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.51I 66.23%NM 58.30%EV -11.58%E -7.67%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.53%EV -7.38%E -1.55%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.17%EV -16.61%E -4.37%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.14%EV -13.92%E -9.47%K -29.63%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.81%EV -8.35%E -1.78%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.05%EV -7.83%E -1.86%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Bovada | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.15%EV -8.65%E -5.55%K -15.45%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -10.30%E -2.24%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -10.02%E -2.45%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-02 12:54 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.40%EV -11.00%E -7.23%K -21.15%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 19.84%EV -11.28%E -2.48%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.76%EV -4.54%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Betway | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.05%EV -8.07%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -12.25%E -2.72%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -7.83%E -1.86%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| William Hill | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.41%EV -9.24%E -5.96%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -12.25%E -2.72%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.82%EV -14.41%E -3.70%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Paddy Power | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.06%EV -10.41%E -6.80%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.74%EV -12.25%E -2.72%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.21%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-02 12:20 |
| 888sport | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.73%EV -10.41%E -6.80%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.63%EV -12.25%E -2.72%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -14.41%E -3.70%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.73%EV -10.41%E -6.80%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.63%EV -12.25%E -2.72%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -14.41%E -3.70%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.73%EV -10.41%E -6.80%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.63%EV -12.25%E -2.72%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -14.41%E -3.70%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| 1xBet | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.73%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -14.20%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.02%EV -2.34%E -0.527%K -0.679%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| BoyleSports | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.09%EV -12.17%E -8.11%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.12%EV -15.57%E -3.60%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.78%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| SportsBet | 1.50I 66.67%NM 57.77%EV -12.17%E -8.11%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.01%EV -15.57%E -3.60%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.22%EV -14.41%E -3.70%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-05-02 12:20 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.33%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.09%EV -17.13%E -4.03%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.59%EV -16.61%E -4.37%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (4)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.36% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.73% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.92% | 1.4% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.93% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.68% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.39% | 1.6% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.50% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.66% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.84% | 1.7% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Smarkets | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.57% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.60% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.83% | 4.1% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |