The School of Odds

NK Celje v KF Egnatia

2026-07-28 18:15 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

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Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

NK Celje (Local)

Prediction 69.44%1.44fair odd
EV -4.86%
Edge -3.55%
Kelly -13.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.94%69.23%69.44%70.12%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.281.331.341.3778%75%75%73%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

KF Egnatia (Visit)

Prediction 11.00%9.09fair odd
EV +0.685%
Edge +0.075%
Kelly +0.084%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 9.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.25%11.16%11.00%12.28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
7.508.368.509.1513%12%12%11%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 19.55%5.11fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -0.449%
Kelly -0.561%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.68%19.61%19.55%21.01%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.304.634.605.0023%22%22%20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.34I 74.63%NM 70.12%EV -6.94%E -5.18%K -20.42%G +0.000%9.15I 10.93%NM 10.27%EV +0.685%E +0.075%K +0.084%G +0.001%4.79I 20.88%NM 19.62%EV -6.35%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-24 01:40
Marathon Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 70.12%EV -7.64%E -5.74%K -23.15%G +0.000%9.10I 10.99%NM 10.25%EV +0.135%E +0.015%K +0.017%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -7.13%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-24 01:09
Betr (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.87%EV -6.25%E -4.63%K -17.86%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV -0.966%E -0.107%K -0.121%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.65%EV -6.15%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-24 01:20
Coolbet1.34I 74.63%NM 69.67%EV -6.94%E -5.18%K -20.42%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.67%EV -3.72%E -0.425%K -0.480%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -7.13%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-24 01:20
Unibet1.34I 74.63%NM 69.02%EV -6.94%E -5.18%K -20.42%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -6.47%E -0.761%K -0.862%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-24 00:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.34I 74.63%NM 69.02%EV -6.94%E -5.18%K -20.42%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -6.47%E -0.761%K -0.862%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-24 00:50
Unibet (SE)1.34I 74.63%NM 69.02%EV -6.94%E -5.18%K -20.42%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -6.47%E -0.761%K -0.862%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-24 00:54
Grosvenor1.34I 74.63%NM 69.02%EV -6.94%E -5.18%K -20.42%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -6.47%E -0.761%K -0.862%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-24 00:55
Casumo1.34I 74.63%NM 69.02%EV -6.94%E -5.18%K -20.42%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -6.47%E -0.761%K -0.862%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-24 00:55
Unibet (NL)1.34I 74.63%NM 69.02%EV -6.94%E -5.18%K -20.42%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -6.47%E -0.761%K -0.862%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-24 00:54
TABtouch1.34I 74.63%NM 69.02%EV -6.94%E -5.18%K -20.42%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -6.47%E -0.761%K -0.862%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-24 00:55
betPARX1.34I 74.63%NM 69.02%EV -6.94%E -5.18%K -20.42%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -6.47%E -0.761%K -0.862%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-24 00:55
ATG (SE)1.34I 74.63%NM 69.02%EV -6.94%E -5.18%K -20.42%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -6.47%E -0.761%K -0.862%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-24 00:55
Svenska Spel1.34I 74.63%NM 69.02%EV -6.94%E -5.18%K -20.42%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -6.47%E -0.761%K -0.862%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-24 00:55
Bet Right1.33I 75.19%NM 69.18%EV -7.64%E -5.74%K -23.15%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -6.47%E -0.761%K -0.862%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -10.06%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-24 01:20
Virgin Bet1.32I 75.76%NM 69.03%EV -8.33%E -6.31%K -26.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -6.47%E -0.761%K -0.862%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -12.02%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-24 00:55
LiveScore Bet1.32I 75.76%NM 69.03%EV -8.33%E -6.31%K -26.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -6.47%E -0.761%K -0.862%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -12.02%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-24 00:55
SportsBet1.31I 76.34%NM 70.12%EV -9.03%E -6.89%K -29.12%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.13%EV -9.22%E -1.12%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.75%EV -4.20%E -0.857%K -1.08%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-24 01:30
Neds1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -5.55%E -4.08%K -15.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -11.97%E -1.50%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -2.24%E -0.449%K -0.561%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-24 01:20
FanDuel1.31I 76.34%NM 69.88%EV -9.03%E -6.89%K -29.12%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -11.97%E -1.50%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.68%EV -4.20%E -0.857%K -1.08%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-24 01:28
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.30I 76.92%NM 69.63%EV -9.72%E -7.48%K -32.41%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -11.97%E -1.50%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.06%EV -7.13%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-24 01:35
Paddy Power1.30I 76.92%NM 69.63%EV -9.72%E -7.48%K -32.41%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -11.97%E -1.50%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.06%EV -7.13%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-24 01:34
PMU (FR)1.28I 78.13%NM 68.76%EV -11.11%E -8.68%K -39.68%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.00%EV -11.97%E -1.50%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.23%EV -14.95%E -3.44%K -4.46%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-24 01:00
Tipico (DE)1.37I 72.99%NM 67.24%EV -4.86%E -3.55%K -13.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -17.47%E -2.33%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -12.02%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 05:59
PlayUp1.35I 74.07%NM 66.94%EV -6.25%E -4.63%K -17.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%EV -17.47%E -2.33%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.01%EV -15.93%E -3.70%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-24 07:00
Unibet (FR)1.31I 76.34%NM 67.60%EV -9.03%E -6.89%K -29.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.81%EV -17.47%E -2.33%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.59%EV -15.93%E -3.70%K -4.83%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-24 01:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-24 01:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-24 01:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-24 01:55