La escuela de los momios

NK Celje v KF Egnatia

2026-07-28 18:15 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Resultado del partido

36 corredores (9 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

NK Celje (Local)

Predicción 66.48%1.50momio equitativo
EV -4.27%
Ventaja -2.97%
Kelly -9.71%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.44

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
64.57%66.56%66.34%69.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.291.371.361.4477.52%72.95%73.53%69.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

KF Egnatia (Visitante)

Predicción 13.39%7.47momio equitativo
EV +0.427%
Ventaja +0.057%
Kelly +0.066%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
12.17%13.37%13.32%14.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.407.047.007.5015.63%14.20%14.29%13.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 20.13%4.97momio equitativo
EV -1.35%
Ventaja -0.275%
Kelly -0.345%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.74%20.07%20.34%21.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.204.654.704.9023.81%21.53%21.28%20.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (36 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet1.35I 74.07%NM 68.43%EV -10.26%E -7.60%K -29.31%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV +0.427%E +0.057%K +0.066%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -3.36%E -0.700%K -0.884%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-25 11:39
LeoVegas (SE)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.43%EV -10.26%E -7.60%K -29.31%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV +0.427%E +0.057%K +0.066%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -3.36%E -0.700%K -0.884%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-25 11:40
Unibet (SE)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.43%EV -10.26%E -7.60%K -29.31%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV +0.427%E +0.057%K +0.066%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -3.36%E -0.700%K -0.884%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-25 11:35
Grosvenor1.35I 74.07%NM 68.43%EV -10.26%E -7.60%K -29.31%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV +0.427%E +0.057%K +0.066%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -3.36%E -0.700%K -0.884%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-25 11:35
Casumo1.35I 74.07%NM 68.43%EV -10.26%E -7.60%K -29.31%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV +0.427%E +0.057%K +0.066%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -3.36%E -0.700%K -0.884%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-25 11:39
Unibet (NL)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.43%EV -10.26%E -7.60%K -29.31%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV +0.427%E +0.057%K +0.066%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -3.36%E -0.700%K -0.884%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-25 11:40
TABtouch1.35I 74.07%NM 68.43%EV -10.26%E -7.60%K -29.31%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV +0.427%E +0.057%K +0.066%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -3.36%E -0.700%K -0.884%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-25 11:39
betPARX1.35I 74.07%NM 68.43%EV -10.26%E -7.60%K -29.31%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV +0.427%E +0.057%K +0.066%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -3.36%E -0.700%K -0.884%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-25 11:39
ATG (SE)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.43%EV -10.26%E -7.60%K -29.31%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV +0.427%E +0.057%K +0.066%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -3.36%E -0.700%K -0.884%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-25 11:39
Svenska Spel1.35I 74.07%NM 68.43%EV -10.26%E -7.60%K -29.31%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV +0.427%E +0.057%K +0.066%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -3.36%E -0.700%K -0.884%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-25 11:35
Tipico (DE)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.02%EV -11.59%E -8.71%K -35.11%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV +0.427%E +0.057%K +0.066%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -1.35%E -0.275%K -0.345%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-25 11:10
Virgin Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 68.62%EV -11.59%E -8.71%K -35.11%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV +0.427%E +0.057%K +0.066%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.21%EV -4.37%E -0.919%K -1.16%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-26 02:55
LiveScore Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 68.62%EV -11.59%E -8.71%K -35.11%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV +0.427%E +0.057%K +0.066%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.21%EV -4.37%E -0.919%K -1.16%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-26 02:55
Betsson1.41I 70.92%NM 66.34%EV -6.27%E -4.45%K -15.29%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.64%EV -0.912%E -0.123%K -0.142%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.02%EV -10.41%E -2.34%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 03:09
NordicBet1.41I 70.92%NM 66.34%EV -6.27%E -4.45%K -15.29%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.64%EV -0.912%E -0.123%K -0.142%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.02%EV -10.41%E -2.34%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 03:10
Betr (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.33%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.95%EV -2.92%E -0.403%K -0.467%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.98%EV -5.37%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-25 11:10
Coolbet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.48%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.33%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.84%EV -2.92%E -0.403%K -0.467%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -9.40%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-24 10:30
DraftKings1.39I 71.94%NM 67.20%EV -7.60%E -5.47%K -19.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -6.27%E -0.895%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -3.36%E -0.700%K -0.884%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-25 18:20
BetUS1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.33%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -6.27%E -0.895%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -9.40%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-24 13:00
Bet Right1.38I 72.46%NM 66.50%EV -8.26%E -5.99%K -21.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -6.27%E -0.895%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%EV -9.40%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-25 11:04
SportsBet1.36I 73.53%NM 67.40%EV -9.59%E -7.05%K -26.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -6.27%E -0.895%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -5.37%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-25 11:10
FanDuel1.36I 73.53%NM 67.40%EV -9.59%E -7.05%K -26.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -6.27%E -0.895%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -5.37%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-24 10:29
PMU (FR)1.29I 77.52%NM 68.27%EV -14.25%E -11.04%K -49.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.58%EV -6.27%E -0.895%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.15%EV -7.39%E -1.61%K -2.05%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-26 03:00
1xBet1.41I 70.92%NM 66.63%EV -6.27%E -4.45%K -15.29%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.92%EV -9.62%E -1.42%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.83I 20.70%NM 19.45%EV -2.75%E -0.570%K -0.719%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-25 12:05
Marathon Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.64%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.33%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.92%EV -10.28%E -1.54%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -3.36%E -0.700%K -0.884%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-25 11:59
888sport1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -12.96%E -1.99%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -9.40%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-25 11:05
888sport (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -12.96%E -1.99%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -9.40%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-25 10:59
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -12.96%E -1.99%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -9.40%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-25 11:05
PlayUp1.40I 71.43%NM 64.57%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -12.96%E -1.99%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -15.44%E -3.68%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-26 04:05
BoyleSports1.36I 73.53%NM 65.65%EV -9.59%E -7.05%K -26.65%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -12.96%E -1.99%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -12.82%E -2.96%K -3.85%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-25 11:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 66.95%EV -11.59%E -8.71%K -35.11%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -12.96%E -1.99%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -7.39%E -1.61%K -2.05%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-25 11:10
Unibet (FR)1.33I 75.19%NM 66.66%EV -11.59%E -8.71%K -35.11%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.64%EV -12.96%E -1.99%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -9.40%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%12.8%2026-07-25 15:35
Paddy Power1.33I 75.19%NM 66.66%EV -11.59%E -8.71%K -35.11%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.64%EV -12.96%E -1.99%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -9.40%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%12.8%2026-07-25 11:15
BetOnline.ag1.43I 69.93%NM 64.84%EV -4.94%E -3.45%K -11.49%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.37%EV -13.63%E -2.11%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 20.79%EV -10.20%E -2.29%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-24 15:10
LowVig.ag1.43I 69.93%NM 64.84%EV -4.94%E -3.45%K -11.49%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.37%EV -13.63%E -2.11%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 20.79%EV -10.20%E -2.29%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-24 15:10
Neds1.44I 69.44%NM 65.44%EV -4.27%E -2.97%K -9.71%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.72%EV -14.30%E -2.23%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.84%EV -4.37%E -0.919%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-24 17:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.97%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.61%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.42%5.1%2026-07-25 18:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.97%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.61%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.42%5.1%2026-07-25 18:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.97%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.61%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.42%5.1%2026-07-25 18:20