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Lyon v Sparta Prague
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Lyon (Local)
Predicción 69.39%1.44momio equitativo
EV -4.24%
Ventaja -3.07%
Kelly -11.15%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.38
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
66.09%69.02%69.43%71.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.291.341.341.3877.52%74.48%74.63%72.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Sparta Prague (Visitante)
Predicción 12.61%7.93momio equitativo
EV +0.908%
Ventaja +0.113%
Kelly +0.130%
Crecimiento +0.001%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.65%12.83%12.59%14.98%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
6.007.337.358.0016.67%13.63%13.61%12.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 17.99%5.56momio equitativo
EV +5.26%
Ventaja +0.899%
Kelly +1.08%
Crecimiento +0.057%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.85
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.30%18.15%17.98%19.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.755.125.205.8521.05%19.54%19.23%17.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Lyon (Local): 69.39%; Sparta Prague (Visitante): 12.61%; Empate: 17.99%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.56. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.85, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +5.26%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.16%EV -7.01%E -5.23%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.55%EV -4.14%E -0.544%K -0.627%G +0.000% | 5.85I 17.09%NM 16.30%EV +5.26%E +0.899%K +1.08%G +0.057% | 4.9% | 2026-08-11 18:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.25%EV -4.24%E -3.07%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.12%EV +0.908%E +0.113%K +0.130%G +0.001% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.63%EV -1.04%E -0.189%K -0.231%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-11 18:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.17%EV -8.40%E -6.36%K -26.25%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV +0.908%E +0.113%K +0.130%G +0.001% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.08%EV -1.04%E -0.189%K -0.231%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-11 18:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.16%EV -4.24%E -3.07%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.16%EV -8.55%E -1.18%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.67%EV -2.84%E -0.526%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-11 18:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.37%EV -4.93%E -3.60%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 7.35I 13.61%NM 12.93%EV -7.29%E -0.992%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.37I 18.62%NM 17.70%EV -3.38%E -0.629%K -0.773%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-11 18:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.37%EV -4.93%E -3.60%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 7.35I 13.61%NM 12.93%EV -7.29%E -0.992%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.37I 18.62%NM 17.70%EV -3.38%E -0.629%K -0.773%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-11 18:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.17%EV -4.24%E -3.07%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 7.35I 13.61%NM 12.99%EV -7.29%E -0.992%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.84%EV -3.74%E -0.699%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-11 18:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.84%EV -4.93%E -3.60%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 12.11%EV -0.353%E -0.045%K -0.051%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.05%EV -4.64%E -0.875%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-11 18:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.84%EV -4.93%E -3.60%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 12.11%EV -0.353%E -0.045%K -0.051%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.05%EV -4.64%E -0.875%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-11 18:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.01%EV -7.71%E -5.79%K -23.35%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -5.40%E -0.720%K -0.831%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -4.64%E -0.875%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-11 18:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.98%EV -5.62%E -4.14%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV +0.908%E +0.113%K +0.130%G +0.001% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV -5.54%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.98%EV -5.62%E -4.14%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV +0.908%E +0.113%K +0.130%G +0.001% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV -5.54%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.43%EV -5.62%E -4.14%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -5.40%E -0.720%K -0.831%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -5.54%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-11 18:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.58%EV -6.32%E -4.68%K -18.05%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -5.40%E -0.720%K -0.831%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -5.54%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-11 18:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.62%E -4.14%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -5.54%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-11 18:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.60%EV -8.40%E -6.36%K -26.25%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +0.908%E +0.113%K +0.130%G +0.001% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -5.54%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-11 18:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.76%EV -8.40%E -6.36%K -26.25%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.70%EV -8.55%E -1.18%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.54%EV -5.54%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-11 18:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.45%EV -4.93%E -3.60%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 7.74I 12.92%NM 12.29%EV -2.37%E -0.306%K -0.352%G +0.000% | 5.21I 19.19%NM 18.26%EV -6.26%E -1.20%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 18:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.58%EV -8.40%E -6.36%K -26.25%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.76%EV -9.18%E -1.28%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.66%EV -6.44%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-11 18:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.38%EV -7.01%E -5.23%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -5.40%E -0.720%K -0.831%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.23%EV -8.24%E -1.62%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.32%E -4.68%K -18.05%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -5.40%E -0.720%K -0.831%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -10.04%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-11 18:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -7.01%E -5.23%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -5.40%E -0.720%K -0.831%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -10.04%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-11 18:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -7.01%E -5.23%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -5.40%E -0.720%K -0.831%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -10.04%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -7.01%E -5.23%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -5.40%E -0.720%K -0.831%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -10.04%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -9.79%E -7.53%K -32.63%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -10.04%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-11 18:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 68.66%EV -10.48%E -8.13%K -36.14%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.63%EV -18.01%E -2.77%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.71%EV -10.04%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-11 18:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -7.01%E -5.23%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -11.84%E -2.42%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-11 18:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.59%EV -8.40%E -6.36%K -26.25%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.48%EV -11.84%E -2.42%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.59%EV -8.40%E -6.36%K -26.25%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.48%EV -11.84%E -2.42%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.62%E -4.14%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -13.63%E -2.84%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-11 18:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.62%E -4.14%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -13.63%E -2.84%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-11 18:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.62%E -4.14%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -13.63%E -2.84%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-11 18:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.33%EV -8.40%E -6.36%K -26.25%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.79%EV -13.63%E -2.84%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.03%EV -7.71%E -5.79%K -23.35%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.05%EV -14.53%E -3.06%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-11 18:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.09%EV -5.62%E -4.14%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -24.32%E -4.05%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.92%EV -14.53%E -3.06%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-11 18:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 68.69%EV -10.48%E -8.13%K -36.14%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.65%EV -14.53%E -3.06%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 68.69%EV -10.48%E -8.13%K -36.14%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.65%EV -14.53%E -3.06%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (3)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.86% | 0.5% | 2026-08-11 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.86% | 0.5% | 2026-08-11 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.86% | 0.5% | 2026-08-11 18:55 |