Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Lyon v Sparta Prague

2026-08-11 19:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Resultado del partido

35 corredores (8 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Lyon (Local)

Predicción 60.16%1.66momio equitativo
EV -3.13%
Ventaja -1.95%
Kelly -5.14%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.61

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.95%60.26%60.20%62.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.441.541.551.6169.44%64.86%64.52%62.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sparta Prague (Visitante)

Predicción 17.68%5.66momio equitativo
EV +1.66%
Ventaja +0.288%
Kelly +0.349%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.11%17.59%17.68%18.34%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.755.255.255.7521.05%19.06%19.05%17.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 22.16%4.51momio equitativo
EV -1.41%
Ventaja -0.316%
Kelly -0.408%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.37%22.15%22.12%23.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.604.064.104.4527.78%24.66%24.39%22.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Lyon (Local): 60.16%; Sparta Prague (Visitante): 17.68%; Empate: 22.16%. Para Sparta Prague (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 5.66. 3 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 5.75, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.66%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (35 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.81%EV -8.55%E -5.62%K -16.44%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.34%EV +1.66%E +0.288%K +0.349%G +0.006%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.85%EV -4.73%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 15:35
SportsBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.19%EV -10.96%E -7.40%K -22.83%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.15%EV +0.773%E +0.136%K +0.164%G +0.001%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.66%EV -5.84%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-05 15:35
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.03%EV -10.96%E -7.40%K -22.83%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.11%EV +0.773%E +0.136%K +0.164%G +0.001%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.86%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-05 15:35
1xBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.86%EV -3.74%E -2.34%K -6.23%G +0.000%5.64I 17.73%NM 17.26%EV -0.288%E -0.051%K -0.062%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.88%EV -1.41%E -0.316%K -0.408%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-06 13:25
Bovada🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.08%EV -5.54%E -3.53%K -9.72%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.12%EV -0.995%E -0.178%K -0.216%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.79%EV -2.51%E -0.571%K -0.739%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-06 12:18
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.57%EV -6.74%E -4.35%K -12.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -2.76%E -0.502%K -0.614%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 16:25
Bet Right🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.87%EV -9.15%E -6.06%K -17.94%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -2.76%E -0.502%K -0.614%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.42%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-05 15:35
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -13.36%E -9.28%K -30.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -2.76%E -0.502%K -0.614%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-05 15:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -3.13%E -1.95%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.63%EV -4.53%E -0.839%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-06 13:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -3.13%E -1.95%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.63%EV -4.53%E -0.839%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-06 13:50
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.76%EV -4.94%E -3.13%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.49%EV -4.53%E -0.839%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.75%EV -8.05%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 08:24
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.76%EV -4.94%E -3.13%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.49%EV -4.53%E -0.839%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.75%EV -8.05%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 08:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.85%EV -7.95%E -5.19%K -15.00%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -4.53%E -0.839%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -5.84%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-06 13:19
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.28%EV -9.75%E -6.50%K -19.51%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV -6.30%E -1.19%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -4.73%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-06 10:55
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -6.74%E -4.35%K -12.26%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.74%EV -7.18%E -1.37%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-05 15:34
BetUS🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -6.74%E -4.35%K -12.26%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.74%EV -7.18%E -1.37%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-06 08:30
Casumo🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.94%EV -5.54%E -3.53%K -9.72%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.63%EV -7.18%E -1.37%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.43%EV -12.48%E -3.16%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-06 13:49
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.94%EV -5.54%E -3.53%K -9.72%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.63%EV -7.18%E -1.37%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.43%EV -12.48%E -3.16%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-06 13:50
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.37%EV -8.55%E -5.62%K -16.44%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.19%EV -7.18%E -1.37%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.44%EV -14.70%E -3.82%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-06 08:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.25%EV -12.16%E -8.33%K -26.43%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.20%EV -8.07%E -1.55%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.55%EV -8.05%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-06 12:10
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.47%EV -5.54%E -3.53%K -9.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.00%EV -9.84%E -1.93%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.54%EV -13.59%E -3.49%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-06 13:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.47%EV -5.54%E -3.53%K -9.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.00%EV -9.84%E -1.93%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.54%EV -13.59%E -3.49%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-06 13:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.47%EV -5.54%E -3.53%K -9.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.00%EV -9.84%E -1.93%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.54%EV -13.59%E -3.49%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-06 13:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.01%EV -5.54%E -3.53%K -9.72%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.34%EV -10.72%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 22.65%EV -9.38%E -2.29%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-05 16:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.01%EV -5.54%E -3.53%K -9.72%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.34%EV -10.72%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 22.65%EV -9.38%E -2.29%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-05 16:15
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -7.95%E -5.19%K -15.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -11.60%E -2.32%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-05 16:03
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -7.95%E -5.19%K -15.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -11.60%E -2.32%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-06 11:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -7.95%E -5.19%K -15.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -11.60%E -2.32%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-06 11:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -7.95%E -5.19%K -15.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -11.60%E -2.32%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-06 11:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.05%EV -6.14%E -3.94%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.11%EV -11.60%E -2.32%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -15.81%E -4.16%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-06 13:50
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.05%EV -6.14%E -3.94%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.11%EV -11.60%E -2.32%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -15.81%E -4.16%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-06 13:50
Grosvenor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.21%EV -6.74%E -4.35%K -12.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -11.60%E -2.32%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -15.81%E -4.16%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-06 13:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.95%EV -7.95%E -5.19%K -15.00%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.09%EV -13.37%E -2.73%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.96%EV -18.02%E -4.87%K -6.68%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-06 13:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.95%EV -7.95%E -5.19%K -15.00%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.09%EV -13.37%E -2.73%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.96%EV -18.02%E -4.87%K -6.68%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-06 13:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 58.05%EV -10.96%E -7.40%K -22.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.09%EV -16.02%E -3.37%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.86%EV -20.24%E -5.62%K -7.78%G +0.000%16.4%2026-08-06 13:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.