The School of Odds

Lech Poznań v AGF Aarhus

2026-07-29 17:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

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Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Lech Poznań (Local)

Prediction 52.66%1.90fair odd
EV -4.17%
Edge -2.29%
Kelly -5.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.46%52.69%52.66%53.93%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.721.751.751.8258%57%57%55%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

AGF Aarhus (Visit)

Prediction 23.03%4.34fair odd
EV +2.02%
Edge +0.456%
Kelly +0.589%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 4.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.18%22.84%23.03%24.43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.754.023.904.4327%25%26%23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 24.31%4.11fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -0.685%
Kelly -0.914%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.43%24.47%24.31%26.09%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.503.743.804.0029%27%26%25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.74I 57.47%NM 53.93%EV -8.38%E -4.82%K -11.32%G +0.000%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.18%EV +2.02%E +0.456%K +0.589%G +0.012%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.89%EV -8.33%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-24 11:40
Marathon Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -8.90%E -5.15%K -12.20%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV +1.33%E +0.302%K +0.391%G +0.005%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -8.82%E -2.35%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-24 10:50
888sport1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -7.85%E -4.49%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -3.28%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -14.90%E -4.26%K -5.96%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-24 10:40
888sport (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -7.85%E -4.49%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -3.28%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -14.90%E -4.26%K -5.96%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-24 10:40
Mr Green (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -7.85%E -4.49%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -3.28%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -14.90%E -4.26%K -5.96%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-24 10:40
PlayUp1.72I 58.14%NM 52.61%EV -9.43%E -5.48%K -13.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -3.28%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -14.90%E -4.26%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-24 12:20
Betr (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -4.17%E -2.29%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -10.19%E -2.61%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.17%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-24 10:40
Coolbet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.15%EV -5.22%E -2.90%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -11.34%E -2.94%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -2.74%E -0.685%K -0.914%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-24 10:40
SportsBet1.76I 56.82%NM 52.23%EV -7.33%E -4.16%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -12.49%E -3.29%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -5.17%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-24 10:40
FanDuel1.74I 57.47%NM 52.52%EV -8.38%E -4.82%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -12.49%E -3.29%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.43%EV -5.17%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-24 10:38
Bet Right1.78I 56.18%NM 51.46%EV -6.27%E -3.52%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -13.64%E -3.64%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -7.60%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-24 10:40
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 52.18%EV -8.90%E -5.15%K -12.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -13.64%E -3.64%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -7.60%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-24 10:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 52.18%EV -8.90%E -5.15%K -12.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -13.64%E -3.64%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -7.60%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-24 11:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.46%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%5.5%2026-07-24 13:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.46%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%5.5%2026-07-24 13:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.46%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%5.5%2026-07-24 13:25