The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Lech Poznań v AGF Aarhus

Kickoff: 2026-07-29 17:00 UTC

Final: Lech Poznań 1–4 AGF Aarhus

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lech Poznań (Local)

Prediction 53.92%1.85fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -3.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.31%53.91%53.87%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.721.701.8060.24%58.27%58.82%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AGF Aarhus (Visit)

Prediction 22.42%4.46fair odd
EV +0.890%
Edge +0.198%
Kelly +0.254%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.50%22.35%22.43%24.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.264.254.5026.67%23.49%23.53%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.66%4.23fair odd
EV -0.636%
Edge -0.151%
Kelly -0.199%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.52%23.74%23.70%25.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.853.804.2027.78%25.96%26.32%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lech Poznań (Local): 53.92%; AGF Aarhus (Visit): 22.42%; Draw: 23.66%. For AGF Aarhus (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.46. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.890%.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV +0.890%E +0.198%K +0.254%G +0.002%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.69%EV -6.79%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-29 16:40
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +0.890%E +0.198%K +0.254%G +0.002%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-29 16:10
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +0.890%E +0.198%K +0.254%G +0.002%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-29 16:10
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +0.890%E +0.198%K +0.254%G +0.002%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-29 16:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +0.890%E +0.198%K +0.254%G +0.002%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-29 16:10
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +0.890%E +0.198%K +0.254%G +0.002%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-29 16:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +0.890%E +0.198%K +0.254%G +0.002%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-29 16:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +0.890%E +0.198%K +0.254%G +0.002%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-29 16:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +0.890%E +0.198%K +0.254%G +0.002%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-29 16:10
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +0.890%E +0.198%K +0.254%G +0.002%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-29 16:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +0.890%E +0.198%K +0.254%G +0.002%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-29 16:10
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.06%EV -7.79%E -4.56%K -10.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -1.35%E -0.307%K -0.398%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-29 16:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.77%EV -10.49%E -6.32%K -15.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -1.35%E -0.307%K -0.398%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.57%EV -12.47%E -3.37%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-29 16:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.77%EV -10.49%E -6.32%K -15.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -1.35%E -0.307%K -0.398%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.57%EV -12.47%E -3.37%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-29 16:15
1xBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.92%EV -4.02%E -2.26%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 21.91%EV -1.80%E -0.411%K -0.533%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.17%EV -6.08%E -1.53%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-29 16:40
SportsBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.75%EV -8.87%E -5.25%K -12.86%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.52%EV -3.59%E -0.836%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.73%EV -7.73%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-29 16:40
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.23%EV -2.94%E -1.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81%EV -5.84%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-29 16:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.79%EV -5.10%E -2.90%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -5.84%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-29 16:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.79%EV -5.10%E -2.90%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -5.84%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-29 16:20
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.07%EV -6.18%E -3.55%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -5.84%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-29 16:30
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -5.64%E -3.22%K -7.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -5.84%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -14.83%E -4.12%K -5.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-29 16:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -5.64%E -3.22%K -7.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -5.84%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -14.83%E -4.12%K -5.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-29 16:40
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -9.95%E -5.96%K -14.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -5.84%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -10.10%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-29 16:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -9.95%E -5.96%K -14.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -5.84%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -10.10%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-29 16:40
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -2.94%E -1.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -10.32%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -7.73%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-29 16:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -6.72%E -3.88%K -9.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -10.32%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-29 16:40
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.60%EV -4.02%E -2.26%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.70%EV -11.44%E -2.90%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.70%EV -6.55%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-29 16:35
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -5.64%E -3.22%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.49%EV -11.44%E -2.90%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.49%EV -6.55%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-29 16:40
Coolbet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.70%EV -6.18%E -3.55%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 23.78%EV -11.89%E -3.03%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.52%EV -1.82%E -0.438%K -0.577%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-29 16:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.19%EV -4.02%E -2.26%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -12.56%E -3.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -0.636%E -0.151%K -0.199%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-29 16:25
Bet Right🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.66%EV -6.18%E -3.55%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -15.92%E -4.25%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-29 16:25
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.48%EV -7.25%E -4.22%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -15.92%E -4.25%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -8.92%E -2.32%K -3.13%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-29 16:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.73%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.69%0.5%2026-07-29 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.20%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66%0.6%2026-07-29 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.45%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.58%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%1.2%2026-07-29 16:40

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.