Langue:Français
Lech Poznań v AGF Aarhus
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Lech Poznań (Local)
Prévision 53.92%1.85cote équitable
EV -2.94%
Avantage -1.63%
Kelly -3.68%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.80
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
52.31%53.91%53.87%55.56%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.661.721.701.8060.24%58.27%58.82%55.56%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
AGF Aarhus (Visiteur)
Prévision 22.42%4.46cote équitable
EV +0.890%
Avantage +0.198%
Kelly +0.254%
Croissance +0.002%
avec la cote maximale 4.50
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
20.50%22.35%22.43%24.43%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.754.264.254.5026.67%23.49%23.53%22.22%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Match nul
Prévision 23.66%4.23cote équitable
EV -0.636%
Avantage -0.151%
Kelly -0.199%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 4.20
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
22.52%23.74%23.70%25.55%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.603.853.804.2027.78%25.96%26.32%23.81%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Lech Poznań (Local) : 53.92% ; AGF Aarhus (Visiteur) : 22.42% ; Match nul : 23.66%. Pour AGF Aarhus (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 4.46. 11 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 4.50, soit une espérance positive de +0.890%.
Cotes des opérateurs (32 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur ▼ | Match nul | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV +0.890%E +0.198%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 23.69%EV -6.79%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-29 16:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +0.890%E +0.198%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-29 16:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +0.890%E +0.198%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-29 16:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +0.890%E +0.198%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-29 16:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +0.890%E +0.198%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-29 16:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +0.890%E +0.198%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-29 16:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +0.890%E +0.198%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-29 16:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +0.890%E +0.198%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-29 16:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +0.890%E +0.198%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-29 16:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +0.890%E +0.198%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-29 16:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +0.890%E +0.198%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-29 16:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.06%EV -7.79%E -4.56%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -1.35%E -0.307%K -0.398%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-29 16:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.77%EV -10.49%E -6.32%K -15.89%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -1.35%E -0.307%K -0.398%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.57%EV -12.47%E -3.37%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-29 16:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.77%EV -10.49%E -6.32%K -15.89%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -1.35%E -0.307%K -0.398%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.57%EV -12.47%E -3.37%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-29 16:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.92%EV -4.02%E -2.26%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 4.38I 22.83%NM 21.91%EV -1.80%E -0.411%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 24.17%EV -6.08%E -1.53%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-29 16:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.75%EV -8.87%E -5.25%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.52%EV -3.59%E -0.836%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.73%EV -7.73%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-29 16:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.23%EV -2.94%E -1.63%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81%EV -5.84%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-29 16:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.79%EV -5.10%E -2.90%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -5.84%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 16:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.79%EV -5.10%E -2.90%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -5.84%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 16:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.07%EV -6.18%E -3.55%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -5.84%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-29 16:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -5.64%E -3.22%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -5.84%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -14.83%E -4.12%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-29 16:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -5.64%E -3.22%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -5.84%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -14.83%E -4.12%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-29 16:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -9.95%E -5.96%K -14.85%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -5.84%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -10.10%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-29 16:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -9.95%E -5.96%K -14.85%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -5.84%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -10.10%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-29 16:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -2.94%E -1.63%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -10.32%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -7.73%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-29 16:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -6.72%E -3.88%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -10.32%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-29 16:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.60%EV -4.02%E -2.26%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.70%EV -11.44%E -2.90%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.70%EV -6.55%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-29 16:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -5.64%E -3.22%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.49%EV -11.44%E -2.90%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.49%EV -6.55%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-29 16:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.70%EV -6.18%E -3.55%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 23.78%EV -11.89%E -3.03%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.52%EV -1.82%E -0.438%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-29 16:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.19%EV -4.02%E -2.26%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -12.56%E -3.22%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -0.636%E -0.151%K -0.199%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 16:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.66%EV -6.18%E -3.55%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -15.92%E -4.25%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-29 16:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.48%EV -7.25%E -4.22%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -15.92%E -4.25%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -8.92%E -2.32%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-29 16:40 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (3)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.73% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.69% | 0.5% | 2026-07-29 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.20% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66% | 0.6% | 2026-07-29 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.45% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.58% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97% | 1.2% | 2026-07-29 16:40 |