L’École des cotes

Lech Poznań v AGF Aarhus

2026-07-29 17:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Résultat du match

29 opérateurs (6 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Lech Poznań (Local)

Prévision 52.62%1.90cote équitable
EV -2.65%
Avantage -1.43%
Kelly -3.12%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
48.73%52.51%52.67%53.38%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.711.751.741.8558.48%56.99%57.47%54.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

AGF Aarhus (Visiteur)

Prévision 22.44%4.46cote équitable
EV -0.813%
Avantage -0.184%
Kelly -0.238%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.42

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.23%22.64%21.97%26.91%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.354.144.254.4229.85%24.15%23.53%22.62%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 24.94%4.01cote équitable
EV -0.240%
Avantage -0.060%
Kelly -0.080%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.43%24.85%25.36%26.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.503.703.654.0028.57%27.06%27.40%25.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (29 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
PlayUp1.85I 54.05%NM 48.73%EV -2.65%E -1.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.91%EV -24.82%E -7.41%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -7.72%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-26 02:35
Betr (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -4.23%E -2.33%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -14.73%E -3.88%K -5.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -0.240%E -0.060%K -0.080%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-25 05:45
Coolbet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.54%EV -4.23%E -2.33%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -15.85%E -4.23%K -5.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -0.240%E -0.060%K -0.080%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-25 05:45
Bovada1.80I 55.56%NM 52.85%EV -5.29%E -2.94%K -6.61%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -3.51%E -0.815%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.03%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-24 14:32
Bet Right1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -5.29%E -2.94%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -16.97%E -4.59%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-25 05:45
1xBet1.76I 56.82%NM 53.37%EV -7.39%E -4.20%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.25%EV -0.813%E -0.184%K -0.238%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.38%EV -7.72%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-24 18:04
LowVig.ag1.76I 56.82%NM 52.54%EV -7.39%E -4.20%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 21.91%EV -5.30%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.55%EV -9.72%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-24 15:14
BetOnline.ag1.76I 56.82%NM 52.54%EV -7.39%E -4.20%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 21.91%EV -5.30%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.55%EV -9.72%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-24 15:15
SportsBet1.76I 56.82%NM 52.23%EV -7.39%E -4.20%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -14.73%E -3.88%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -2.73%E -0.701%K -0.943%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-24 10:40
Marathon Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 53.38%EV -7.92%E -4.52%K -10.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -1.26%E -0.287%K -0.371%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.39%EV -8.22%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-24 17:55
888sport1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -7.92%E -4.52%K -10.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -5.75%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-24 10:40
888sport (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -7.92%E -4.52%K -10.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -5.75%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-24 10:40
Mr Green (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -7.92%E -4.52%K -10.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -5.75%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-24 10:40
Unibet1.74I 57.47%NM 53.28%EV -8.44%E -4.85%K -11.41%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.31%EV -2.38%E -0.548%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.40%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-25 05:00
TABtouch1.74I 57.47%NM 53.28%EV -8.44%E -4.85%K -11.41%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.31%EV -2.38%E -0.548%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.40%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-25 04:59
Casumo1.74I 57.47%NM 53.28%EV -8.44%E -4.85%K -11.41%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.31%EV -2.38%E -0.548%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.40%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-25 05:00
Unibet (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 53.28%EV -8.44%E -4.85%K -11.41%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.31%EV -2.38%E -0.548%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.40%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-25 05:00
Grosvenor1.74I 57.47%NM 53.28%EV -8.44%E -4.85%K -11.41%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.31%EV -2.38%E -0.548%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.40%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-25 05:00
Unibet (NL)1.74I 57.47%NM 53.28%EV -8.44%E -4.85%K -11.41%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.31%EV -2.38%E -0.548%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.40%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-25 05:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 53.28%EV -8.44%E -4.85%K -11.41%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.31%EV -2.38%E -0.548%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.40%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-25 05:00
ATG (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 53.28%EV -8.44%E -4.85%K -11.41%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.31%EV -2.38%E -0.548%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.40%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-25 05:00
betPARX1.74I 57.47%NM 53.28%EV -8.44%E -4.85%K -11.41%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.31%EV -2.38%E -0.548%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.40%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-25 04:59
Svenska Spel1.74I 57.47%NM 53.28%EV -8.44%E -4.85%K -11.41%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.31%EV -2.38%E -0.548%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.40%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-25 05:00
DraftKings1.74I 57.47%NM 52.88%EV -8.44%E -4.85%K -11.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -5.75%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-25 09:50
FanDuel1.74I 57.47%NM 52.52%EV -8.44%E -4.85%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -14.73%E -3.88%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.43%EV -2.73%E -0.701%K -0.943%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-24 10:38
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 52.18%EV -8.97%E -5.18%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -15.85%E -4.23%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-24 10:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 52.18%EV -8.97%E -5.18%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -15.85%E -4.23%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-24 11:15
Virgin Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 53.27%EV -10.02%E -5.86%K -14.11%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -4.63%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-25 05:00
LiveScore Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 53.27%EV -10.02%E -5.86%K -14.11%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -4.63%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-25 05:00
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (3)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%6.2%2026-07-26 02:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%6.2%2026-07-26 02:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%6.2%2026-07-25 18:50