The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hearts v SK Sturm Graz

Kickoff: 2026-07-28 18:45 UTC

Final: Hearts 0–2 SK Sturm Graz

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hearts (Local)

Prediction 50.93%1.96fair odd
EV -4.77%
Edge -2.55%
Kelly -5.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.80%50.91%50.97%51.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.811.821.8758.48%55.25%54.95%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SK Sturm Graz (Visit)

Prediction 25.32%3.95fair odd
EV -1.00%
Edge -0.256%
Kelly -0.345%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.07%25.31%25.48%27.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.653.653.9129.85%27.40%27.40%25.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.76%4.21fair odd
EV -1.42%
Edge -0.341%
Kelly -0.449%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.48%23.78%23.55%24.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.683.923.904.1527.17%25.53%25.64%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hearts (Local): 50.93%; SK Sturm Graz (Visit): 25.32%; Draw: 23.76%. For SK Sturm Graz (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.95. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.91, with an expected value of -1.00%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.21%EV -4.77%E -2.55%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.55%EV -1.26%E -0.322%K -0.433%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.24%EV -6.17%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-28 18:39
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -5.79%E -3.13%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -3.79%E -0.997%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -9.73%E -2.56%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-28 18:09
1xBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.64%EV -6.30%E -3.42%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.13%EV -4.29%E -1.14%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.23%EV -2.84%E -0.695%K -0.919%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-28 18:40
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.43%EV -6.81%E -3.72%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -2.52%E -0.655%K -0.885%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -7.35%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-28 18:34
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -6.81%E -3.72%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.07%EV -1.00%E -0.256%K -0.345%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.51%EV -8.78%E -2.29%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-28 18:39
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -6.81%E -3.72%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -6.32%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -4.98%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-28 18:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -6.81%E -3.72%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -3.79%E -0.997%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -9.73%E -2.56%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-28 18:39
Coolbet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -6.81%E -3.72%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -8.85%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -4.98%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-28 18:20
888sport🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -6.81%E -3.72%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -8.85%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -10.92%E -2.91%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-28 18:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -6.81%E -3.72%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -8.85%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -10.92%E -2.91%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-28 18:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -6.81%E -3.72%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -8.85%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -10.92%E -2.91%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-28 18:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.66%EV -7.32%E -4.02%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -6.32%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -2.60%E -0.635%K -0.840%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-28 18:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.36%EV -7.32%E -4.02%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.32%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.98%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-28 18:34
Casumo🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.36%EV -7.32%E -4.02%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.32%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.98%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-28 18:34
Unibet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.36%EV -7.32%E -4.02%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.32%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.98%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-28 18:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.36%EV -7.32%E -4.02%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.32%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.98%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-28 18:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.36%EV -7.32%E -4.02%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.32%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.98%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-28 18:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.36%EV -7.32%E -4.02%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.32%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.98%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-28 18:34
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.36%EV -7.32%E -4.02%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.32%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.98%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-28 18:34
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.25%EV -7.32%E -4.02%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -10.12%E -2.85%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.48%EV -1.42%E -0.341%K -0.449%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-28 18:34
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.25%EV -7.32%E -4.02%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -10.12%E -2.85%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.48%EV -1.42%E -0.341%K -0.449%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-28 18:39
Unibet (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.04%EV -7.32%E -4.02%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -15.18%E -4.53%K -6.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -4.98%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-28 18:20
PlayUp🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.80%EV -7.32%E -4.02%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -13.92%E -4.09%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -8.54%E -2.22%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-28 18:34
TABtouch🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.32%EV -7.82%E -4.32%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -7.59%E -2.08%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -4.98%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-28 18:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.32%EV -7.82%E -4.32%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -7.59%E -2.08%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -4.98%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-28 18:35
Bet Right🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.66%EV -7.82%E -4.32%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.83%EV -10.12%E -2.85%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -7.35%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-28 18:19
Grosvenor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.46%EV -8.33%E -4.63%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -7.59%E -2.08%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -4.98%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-28 18:34
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -8.33%E -4.63%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -6.32%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -7.35%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-28 18:34
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -8.33%E -4.63%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.85%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -7.35%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-28 17:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.78%EV -8.33%E -4.63%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -5.05%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.84%EV -12.58%E -3.42%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-28 18:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.78%EV -8.33%E -4.63%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -5.05%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.84%EV -12.58%E -3.42%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-28 18:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.40%EV -9.86%E -5.57%K -12.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -8.85%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.33%EV -7.35%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-28 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.40%EV -9.86%E -5.57%K -12.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -8.85%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.33%EV -7.35%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-28 18:34
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -10.88%E -6.22%K -14.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -8.85%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.73%E -2.56%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-28 18:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -10.88%E -6.22%K -14.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -11.38%E -3.25%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -9.73%E -2.56%K -3.47%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-28 18:29
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.63%EV -10.88%E -6.22%K -14.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -13.92%E -4.09%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -9.73%E -2.56%K -3.47%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-28 17:19
PMU (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 51.40%EV -12.92%E -7.55%K -18.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.47%EV -12.65%E -3.67%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.13%EV -9.73%E -2.56%K -3.47%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-28 18:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.91%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.18%0.3%2026-07-28 18:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.74%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.10%0.7%2026-07-28 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.74%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.10%0.7%2026-07-28 18:40

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