The School of Odds

Hearts v SK Sturm Graz

2026-07-28 18:45 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

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Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Hearts (Local)

Prediction 49.89%2.00fair odd
EV -5.20%
Edge -2.74%
Kelly -5.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.84%49.96%49.99%53.45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.641.791.821.9061%56%55%53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

SK Sturm Graz (Visit)

Prediction 25.94%3.86fair odd
EV +6.35%
Edge +1.55%
Kelly +2.05%
Growth +0.130%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.12%25.87%25.94%27.55%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.303.763.704.1030%27%27%24%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 24.17%4.14fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -0.834%
Kelly -1.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.17%24.16%24.06%25.34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.603.783.754.0028%26%27%25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)1.73I 57.80%NM 53.10%EV -13.68%E -7.91%K -18.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV +6.35%E +1.55%K +2.05%G +0.130%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -9.38%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-24 12:05
Grosvenor1.73I 57.80%NM 53.10%EV -13.68%E -7.91%K -18.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV +6.35%E +1.55%K +2.05%G +0.130%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -9.38%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-24 12:05
Casumo1.73I 57.80%NM 53.10%EV -13.68%E -7.91%K -18.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV +6.35%E +1.55%K +2.05%G +0.130%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -9.38%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-24 12:05
TABtouch1.73I 57.80%NM 53.10%EV -13.68%E -7.91%K -18.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV +6.35%E +1.55%K +2.05%G +0.130%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -9.38%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-24 12:05
Unibet1.73I 57.80%NM 53.10%EV -13.68%E -7.91%K -18.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV +6.35%E +1.55%K +2.05%G +0.130%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -9.38%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-24 12:05
Unibet (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 53.10%EV -13.68%E -7.91%K -18.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV +6.35%E +1.55%K +2.05%G +0.130%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -9.38%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-24 12:05
LeoVegas (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 53.10%EV -13.68%E -7.91%K -18.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV +6.35%E +1.55%K +2.05%G +0.130%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -9.38%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-24 12:05
Svenska Spel1.73I 57.80%NM 53.10%EV -13.68%E -7.91%K -18.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV +6.35%E +1.55%K +2.05%G +0.130%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -9.38%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-24 12:05
ATG (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 53.10%EV -13.68%E -7.91%K -18.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV +6.35%E +1.55%K +2.05%G +0.130%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -9.38%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-24 12:04
betPARX1.73I 57.80%NM 53.10%EV -13.68%E -7.91%K -18.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV +6.35%E +1.55%K +2.05%G +0.130%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -9.38%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-24 12:04
LiveScore Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 53.36%EV -15.18%E -8.93%K -21.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV +6.35%E +1.55%K +2.05%G +0.130%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -10.59%E -2.86%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-24 12:04
Virgin Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 53.36%EV -15.18%E -8.93%K -21.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV +6.35%E +1.55%K +2.05%G +0.130%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -10.59%E -2.86%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-24 12:04
PMU (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 53.45%EV -18.17%E -11.08%K -28.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.19%EV +2.46%E +0.623%K +0.834%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.35%EV -13.00%E -3.61%K -5.00%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-24 12:05
1xBet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -8.69%E -4.75%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -0.134%E -0.035%K -0.047%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.27%EV -6.48%E -1.67%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-24 13:00
Marathon Bet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.27%EV -9.19%E -5.05%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.43%EV -0.912%E -0.239%K -0.323%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.30%EV -7.20%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-24 12:44
Betsson1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -6.20%E -3.30%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -4.02%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -10.59%E -2.86%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-24 12:05
NordicBet1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -6.20%E -3.30%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -4.02%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -10.59%E -2.86%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-24 12:05
BetUS1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -10.19%E -5.66%K -12.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -4.02%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -3.34%E -0.834%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-24 13:15
Neds1.90I 52.63%NM 49.63%EV -5.20%E -2.74%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -5.75%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-24 11:15
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.69%E -4.16%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -13.00%E -3.61%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-24 11:55
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.69%E -4.16%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -13.00%E -3.61%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-24 12:00
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.69%E -4.16%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -13.00%E -3.61%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-24 11:59
Unibet (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 51.48%EV -14.18%E -8.24%K -19.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.59%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.93%EV -10.59%E -2.86%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-24 13:15
PlayUp1.82I 54.95%NM 49.55%EV -9.19%E -5.05%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.40%EV -7.92%E -2.23%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.05%EV -13.00%E -3.61%K -5.00%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-24 13:15
Betr (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.56%EV -5.20%E -2.74%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -3.34%E -0.834%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-24 12:19
Coolbet1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -6.20%E -3.30%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -3.34%E -0.834%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-24 11:55
Tipico (DE)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -8.69%E -4.75%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -5.75%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-24 11:14
SportsBet1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -6.70%E -3.58%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -11.81%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -3.34%E -0.834%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-24 12:04
FanDuel1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -6.70%E -3.58%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -11.81%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -3.34%E -0.834%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-24 12:10
Bet Right1.86I 53.76%NM 49.26%EV -7.20%E -3.87%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.95%EV -11.81%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.80%EV -6.96%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-24 12:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -7.69%E -4.16%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -14.40%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -5.75%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-24 12:05
Paddy Power1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -7.69%E -4.16%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -14.40%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -8.17%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-24 12:05
BoyleSports1.73I 57.80%NM 49.88%EV -13.68%E -7.91%K -18.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.15%EV -14.40%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.97%EV -13.00%E -3.61%K -5.00%G +0.000%15.9%2026-07-24 12:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 52.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%3.4%2026-07-24 13:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 52.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%3.4%2026-07-24 13:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.85I 54.05%NM 52.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%3.4%2026-07-24 13:15