La escuela de los momios

Hearts v SK Sturm Graz

2026-07-28 18:45 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Resultado del partido

37 corredores (8 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Hearts (Local)

Predicción 51.42%1.94momio equitativo
EV -4.87%
Ventaja -2.63%
Kelly -5.73%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.88%51.35%51.36%52.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.701.791.781.8558.82%55.98%56.18%54.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

SK Sturm Graz (Visitante)

Predicción 25.16%3.97momio equitativo
EV -0.624%
Ventaja -0.158%
Kelly -0.212%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.96%25.16%25.10%26.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.673.703.9530.30%27.27%27.03%25.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.42%4.27momio equitativo
EV -1.63%
Ventaja -0.388%
Kelly -0.509%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.28%23.50%23.54%25.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.603.923.954.2027.78%25.53%25.32%23.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Betr (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.17%EV -4.87%E -2.63%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -9.43%E -2.62%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -1.63%E -0.388%K -0.509%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-24 17:55
Bovada1.83I 54.64%NM 51.91%EV -5.90%E -3.22%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -0.624%E -0.158%K -0.212%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -7.48%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-25 18:48
Neds1.83I 54.64%NM 51.26%EV -5.90%E -3.22%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -1.88%E -0.483%K -0.649%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -11.00%E -2.89%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-25 00:50
Tipico (DE)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -5.90%E -3.22%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -11.95%E -3.41%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-25 19:00
Coolbet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -6.42%E -3.53%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -9.43%E -2.62%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -1.63%E -0.388%K -0.509%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-24 17:54
1xBet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.56%EV -6.42%E -3.53%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.25%EV -2.64%E -0.681%K -0.919%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.19%EV -9.12%E -2.35%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-25 15:35
Betsson1.82I 54.95%NM 51.25%EV -6.42%E -3.53%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -10.69%E -3.01%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.48%EV -2.80%E -0.675%K -0.889%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-25 20:05
NordicBet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.25%EV -6.42%E -3.53%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -10.69%E -3.01%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.48%EV -2.80%E -0.675%K -0.889%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-25 20:05
Marathon Bet1.81I 55.25%NM 51.51%EV -6.93%E -3.83%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.28%EV -3.39%E -0.883%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -9.83%E -2.55%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-25 15:30
DraftKings1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.44%E -4.14%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -3.14%E -0.816%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -7.48%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-25 18:45
BetUS1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -7.44%E -4.14%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -6.31%E -1.58%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-24 13:15
Bet Right1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -7.44%E -4.14%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.95%E -3.41%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -6.31%E -1.58%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-24 17:55
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -7.44%E -4.14%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -4.40%E -1.16%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -15.68%E -4.36%K -6.03%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-25 00:49
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -7.44%E -4.14%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -4.40%E -1.16%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -15.68%E -4.36%K -6.03%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-25 00:50
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -7.44%E -4.14%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -4.40%E -1.16%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -15.68%E -4.36%K -6.03%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-25 00:50
PlayUp1.80I 55.56%NM 50.08%EV -7.44%E -4.14%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -14.46%E -4.25%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.41%EV -9.83%E -2.55%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-26 02:04
BetOnline.ag1.78I 56.18%NM 51.96%EV -8.47%E -4.76%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 23.96%EV -2.89%E -0.748%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.08%EV -10.06%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-24 15:10
LowVig.ag1.78I 56.18%NM 51.96%EV -8.47%E -4.76%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 23.96%EV -2.89%E -0.748%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.08%EV -10.06%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-24 15:10
Unibet (NL)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.77%EV -8.47%E -4.76%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -7.48%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 02:30
Grosvenor1.78I 56.18%NM 51.77%EV -8.47%E -4.76%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -7.48%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 02:30
Casumo1.78I 56.18%NM 51.77%EV -8.47%E -4.76%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -7.48%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 02:29
TABtouch1.78I 56.18%NM 51.77%EV -8.47%E -4.76%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -7.48%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 02:29
Unibet1.78I 56.18%NM 51.77%EV -8.47%E -4.76%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -7.48%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 02:30
Unibet (SE)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.77%EV -8.47%E -4.76%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -7.48%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 02:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.77%EV -8.47%E -4.76%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -7.48%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 02:30
Svenska Spel1.78I 56.18%NM 51.77%EV -8.47%E -4.76%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -7.48%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 02:30
ATG (SE)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.77%EV -8.47%E -4.76%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -7.48%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 02:30
betPARX1.78I 56.18%NM 51.77%EV -8.47%E -4.76%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -7.48%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 02:30
SportsBet1.78I 56.18%NM 51.47%EV -8.47%E -4.76%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.95%E -3.41%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-26 00:04
FanDuel1.77I 56.50%NM 51.61%EV -8.99%E -5.08%K -11.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -11.95%E -3.41%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.28%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-26 00:03
LiveScore Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 51.86%EV -10.02%E -5.72%K -13.35%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.87%EV -8.17%E -2.24%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.27%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-25 02:29
Virgin Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 51.86%EV -10.02%E -5.72%K -13.35%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.87%EV -8.17%E -2.24%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.27%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-25 02:30
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -10.02%E -5.72%K -13.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -11.95%E -3.41%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -6.31%E -1.58%K -2.10%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-26 00:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -10.02%E -5.72%K -13.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -11.95%E -3.41%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -6.31%E -1.58%K -2.10%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-26 00:04
BoyleSports1.73I 57.80%NM 49.88%EV -11.04%E -6.38%K -15.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.15%EV -16.98%E -5.14%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.97%EV -15.68%E -4.36%K -6.03%G +0.000%15.9%2026-07-24 12:45
Unibet (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 51.48%EV -11.56%E -6.72%K -16.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.26%EV -8.17%E -2.24%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.26%EV -14.51%E -3.98%K -5.48%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-25 01:05
PMU (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 51.73%EV -12.59%E -7.40%K -17.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.13%EV -11.95%E -3.41%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.14%EV -11.00%E -2.89%K -3.93%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-25 02:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.87I 53.48%NM 52.28%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.44%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.28%2.3%2026-07-25 20:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.87I 53.48%NM 52.28%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.44%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.28%2.3%2026-07-25 20:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.87I 53.48%NM 51.99%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.30%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.71%2.9%2026-07-25 20:05