The School of Odds
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Fenerbahce v SK Sturm Graz

2026-08-05 18:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fenerbahce (Local)

Prediction 63.06%1.59fair odd
EV -4.77%
Edge -3.16%
Kelly -9.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.29%62.94%63.33%64.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.481.501.5171.43%67.44%66.67%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SK Sturm Graz (Visit)

Prediction 14.72%6.79fair odd
EV +1.56%
Edge +0.226%
Kelly +0.264%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 6.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.77%14.88%14.62%16.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.406.126.006.9018.52%16.34%16.67%14.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.22%4.50fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -0.406%
Kelly -0.525%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.28%22.18%22.05%23.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.124.104.4225.97%24.27%24.39%22.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.34%EV -5.41%E -3.60%K -10.81%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.77%EV +1.56%E +0.226%K +0.264%G +0.004%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.89%EV -7.79%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 11:29
Betsson1.50I 66.67%NM 63.34%EV -5.41%E -3.60%K -10.81%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.77%EV +1.56%E +0.226%K +0.264%G +0.004%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.89%EV -7.79%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 11:29
Betr (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.80%EV -6.67%E -4.50%K -13.89%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.99%EV -0.649%E -0.096%K -0.113%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -5.57%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-30 11:09
Coolbet1.47I 68.03%NM 63.45%EV -7.30%E -4.96%K -15.53%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.35%EV -4.33%E -0.666%K -0.787%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -6.68%E -1.59%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-30 11:09
SportsBet1.43I 69.93%NM 64.41%EV -9.82%E -6.87%K -22.84%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -4.33%E -0.666%K -0.787%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.42%EV -4.46%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-30 11:05
Bet Right1.45I 68.97%NM 63.42%EV -8.56%E -5.90%K -19.02%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -4.33%E -0.666%K -0.787%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -8.91%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-30 10:59
FanDuel1.42I 70.42%NM 64.57%EV -10.45%E -7.36%K -24.88%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -4.33%E -0.666%K -0.787%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -4.46%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-30 11:03
1xBet1.51I 66.23%NM 63.43%EV -4.77%E -3.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%6.43I 15.55%NM 14.90%EV -5.36%E -0.833%K -0.987%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.67%EV -1.80%E -0.406%K -0.525%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-30 11:10
Marathon Bet1.47I 68.03%NM 63.41%EV -7.30%E -4.96%K -15.53%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -8.01%E -1.28%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.68%EV -4.46%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-30 11:10
Neds1.50I 66.67%NM 62.86%EV -5.41%E -3.60%K -10.81%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -11.69%E -1.95%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -2.24%E -0.509%K -0.659%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-30 10:59
Unibet1.51I 66.23%NM 61.73%EV -4.77%E -3.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -11.69%E -1.95%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -8.91%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-30 10:50
Unibet (NL)1.51I 66.23%NM 61.73%EV -4.77%E -3.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -11.69%E -1.95%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -8.91%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-30 10:49
Unibet (SE)1.51I 66.23%NM 61.73%EV -4.77%E -3.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -11.69%E -1.95%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -8.91%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-30 10:49
LeoVegas (SE)1.51I 66.23%NM 61.73%EV -4.77%E -3.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -11.69%E -1.95%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -8.91%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-30 10:50
TABtouch1.51I 66.23%NM 61.73%EV -4.77%E -3.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -11.69%E -1.95%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -8.91%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-30 10:50
Casumo1.51I 66.23%NM 61.73%EV -4.77%E -3.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -11.69%E -1.95%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -8.91%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-30 10:50
ATG (SE)1.51I 66.23%NM 61.73%EV -4.77%E -3.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -11.69%E -1.95%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -8.91%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-30 10:49
betPARX1.51I 66.23%NM 61.73%EV -4.77%E -3.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -11.69%E -1.95%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -8.91%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-30 10:49
Svenska Spel1.51I 66.23%NM 61.73%EV -4.77%E -3.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -11.69%E -1.95%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -8.91%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-30 10:49
Grosvenor1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -5.41%E -3.60%K -10.81%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -11.69%E -1.95%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.13%E -2.78%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-30 10:49
BoyleSports1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -5.41%E -3.60%K -10.81%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -11.69%E -1.95%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.13%E -2.78%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-30 12:45
PlayUp1.48I 67.57%NM 61.31%EV -6.67%E -4.50%K -13.89%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -11.69%E -1.95%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -14.46%E -3.76%K -5.07%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-30 11:30
Paddy Power1.40I 71.43%NM 63.83%EV -11.71%E -8.37%K -29.28%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -11.69%E -1.95%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -6.68%E -1.59%K -2.09%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-30 11:03
Virgin Bet1.48I 67.57%NM 61.36%EV -6.67%E -4.50%K -13.89%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.66%EV -14.63%E -2.52%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.99%EV -12.24%E -3.10%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-30 10:49
LiveScore Bet1.48I 67.57%NM 61.36%EV -6.67%E -4.50%K -13.89%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.66%EV -14.63%E -2.52%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.99%EV -12.24%E -3.10%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-30 10:49
PMU (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 61.47%EV -9.82%E -6.87%K -22.84%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.70%EV -17.58%E -3.14%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.83%EV -14.46%E -3.76%K -5.07%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-30 10:49
Tipico (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -5.41%E -3.60%K -10.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -19.05%E -3.46%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.68%E -1.59%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-30 12:49
Unibet (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 61.29%EV -9.82%E -6.87%K -22.84%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.23%EV -20.52%E -3.80%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.47%EV -13.35%E -3.42%K -4.60%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-30 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.