Language:English
Fenerbahce v SK Sturm Graz
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fenerbahce (Local)
Prediction 73.05%1.37fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -2.14%
Kelly -8.61%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.30%72.76%73.10%76.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.261.261.3386.21%79.44%79.37%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
SK Sturm Graz (Visit)
Prediction 10.29%9.72fair odd
EV +8.03%
Edge +0.765%
Kelly +0.845%
Growth +0.068%
assuming max odds 10.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.00%10.46%10.29%11.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.359.3910.5012.50%10.70%10.64%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 16.66%6.00fair odd
EV +8.30%
Edge +1.28%
Kelly +1.51%
Growth +0.125%
assuming max odds 6.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.75%16.78%16.61%18.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.815.846.5020.00%17.20%17.12%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fenerbahce (Local): 73.05%; SK Sturm Graz (Visit): 10.29%; Draw: 16.66%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.00. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.30%.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.11%EV -7.96%E -6.31%K -30.60%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.13%EV +8.03%E +0.765%K +0.845%G +0.068% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.75%EV +8.30%E +1.28%K +1.51%G +0.125% | 4.3% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.11%EV -7.96%E -6.31%K -30.60%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.13%EV +8.03%E +0.765%K +0.845%G +0.068% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.75%EV +8.30%E +1.28%K +1.51%G +0.125% | 4.3% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.23%EV -9.42%E -7.59%K -39.24%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.00%EV +8.03%E +0.765%K +0.845%G +0.068% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.77%EV +6.63%E +1.04%K +1.23%G +0.081% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.23%EV -9.42%E -7.59%K -39.24%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.00%EV +8.03%E +0.765%K +0.845%G +0.068% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.77%EV +6.63%E +1.04%K +1.23%G +0.081% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.23%EV -9.42%E -7.59%K -39.24%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.00%EV +8.03%E +0.765%K +0.845%G +0.068% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.77%EV +6.63%E +1.04%K +1.23%G +0.081% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.62%EV -9.42%E -7.59%K -39.24%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV +2.88%E +0.288%K +0.321%G +0.009% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.00%EV +4.13%E +0.661%K +0.787%G +0.033% | 6.6% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.62%EV -9.42%E -7.59%K -39.24%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV +2.88%E +0.288%K +0.321%G +0.009% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.00%EV +4.13%E +0.661%K +0.787%G +0.033% | 6.6% | 2026-08-05 17:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.92%EV -10.88%E -8.92%K -49.45%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +2.88%E +0.288%K +0.321%G +0.009% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.82%EV +4.13%E +0.661%K +0.787%G +0.033% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.92%EV -10.88%E -8.92%K -49.45%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +2.88%E +0.288%K +0.321%G +0.009% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.82%EV +4.13%E +0.661%K +0.787%G +0.033% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.92%EV -10.88%E -8.92%K -49.45%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +2.88%E +0.288%K +0.321%G +0.009% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.82%EV +4.13%E +0.661%K +0.787%G +0.033% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.84%EV -2.84%E -2.14%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.53%EV -13.58%E -1.62%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.63%EV +3.30%E +0.532%K +0.634%G +0.021% | 3.2% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.33%EV -7.23%E -5.69%K -26.76%G +0.000% | 9.15I 10.93%NM 10.32%EV -5.86%E -0.640%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.35%EV +2.46%E +0.401%K +0.479%G +0.012% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 17:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.33%EV -7.23%E -5.69%K -26.76%G +0.000% | 9.15I 10.93%NM 10.32%EV -5.86%E -0.640%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.35%EV +2.46%E +0.401%K +0.479%G +0.012% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 17:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.95%EV -12.34%E -10.28%K -61.70%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.11%EV +2.88%E +0.288%K +0.321%G +0.009% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.94%EV +1.63%E +0.267%K +0.320%G +0.005% | 9.7% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.95%EV -12.34%E -10.28%K -61.70%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.11%EV +2.88%E +0.288%K +0.321%G +0.009% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.94%EV +1.63%E +0.267%K +0.320%G +0.005% | 9.7% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.53%EV -10.15%E -8.25%K -44.12%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -7.40%E -0.823%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -0.035%E -0.006%K -0.007%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-05 17:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.28%EV -7.96%E -6.31%K -30.60%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.85%EV -2.26%E -0.238%K -0.266%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -1.70%E -0.288%K -0.347%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-05 17:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.08%EV -7.96%E -6.31%K -30.60%G +0.000% | 9.29I 10.76%NM 10.05%EV -4.42%E -0.476%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 15.87%EV -2.03%E -0.346%K -0.417%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 75.64%EV -15.26%E -13.16%K -95.38%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.24%EV -2.26%E -0.238%K -0.266%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.13%EV -3.37%E -0.580%K -0.701%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.81%EV -4.30%E -3.29%K -13.88%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.60%EV -7.40%E -0.823%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.59%EV -4.20%E -0.730%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 17:33 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.67%EV -6.50%E -5.07%K -23.20%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.93%EV -2.26%E -0.238%K -0.266%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV -4.20%E -0.730%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-05 17:34 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.63%EV -8.69%E -6.95%K -34.75%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -7.40%E -0.823%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.15%EV -5.03%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-05 16:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.99%EV -9.42%E -7.59%K -39.24%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 9.92%EV -4.83%E -0.522%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.10%EV -5.03%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-05 17:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.04%EV -3.57%E -2.71%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 8.61I 11.61%NM 11.04%EV -11.42%E -1.33%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.62I 17.79%NM 16.92%EV -6.37%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.13%EV -6.50%E -5.07%K -23.20%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.85%EV -2.26%E -0.238%K -0.266%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -8.36%E -1.52%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-05 15:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.98%EV -5.03%E -3.87%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV -12.55%E -1.48%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -8.36%E -1.52%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 17:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.24%EV -10.88%E -8.92%K -49.45%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -12.55%E -1.48%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -8.36%E -1.52%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-05 17:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.56%EV -12.34%E -10.28%K -61.70%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.39%EV -12.55%E -1.48%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -8.36%E -1.52%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-08-05 17:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.66%EV -4.30%E -3.29%K -13.88%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.71%EV +0.827%E +0.084%K +0.094%G +0.001% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.63%EV -10.03%E -1.86%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.66%EV -4.30%E -3.29%K -13.88%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.71%EV +0.827%E +0.084%K +0.094%G +0.001% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.63%EV -10.03%E -1.86%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.31%EV -7.23%E -5.69%K -26.76%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -7.40%E -0.823%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.49%EV -12.53%E -2.39%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-05 15:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -5.76%E -4.47%K -19.88%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -12.55%E -1.48%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -16.70%E -3.34%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-05 17:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -5.03%E -3.87%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -17.69%E -2.21%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -16.70%E -3.34%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -5.03%E -3.87%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -17.69%E -2.21%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -16.70%E -3.34%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -5.03%E -3.87%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -17.69%E -2.21%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -16.70%E -3.34%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.09%EV -6.50%E -5.07%K -23.20%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.71%EV -12.55%E -1.48%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -16.70%E -3.34%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-05 17:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.40% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.05% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.55% | 0.5% | 2026-08-05 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.40% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.05% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.55% | 0.5% | 2026-08-05 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.40% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.05% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.55% | 0.5% | 2026-08-05 17:50 |
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