The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Dinamo Zagreb v FC Thun

Kickoff: 2026-07-28 18:02 UTC

Final: Dinamo Zagreb 3–2 FC Thun

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dinamo Zagreb (Local)

Prediction 64.25%1.56fair odd
EV -3.62%
Edge -2.41%
Kelly -7.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.01%64.22%64.45%68.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.411.421.5074.63%70.81%70.67%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Thun (Visit)

Prediction 15.01%6.66fair odd
EV +12.55%
Edge +1.67%
Kelly +1.93%
Growth +0.242%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.21%15.03%14.82%16.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.596.507.5018.18%15.17%15.38%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.74%4.82fair odd
EV -1.48%
Edge -0.312%
Kelly -0.395%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.24%20.74%20.73%22.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.554.554.7525.00%21.97%21.98%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dinamo Zagreb (Local): 64.25%; FC Thun (Visit): 15.01%; Draw: 20.74%. For FC Thun (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.66. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.55%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -12.62%E -9.28%K -35.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV +12.55%E +1.67%K +1.93%G +0.242%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -1.48%E -0.312%K -0.395%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-28 17:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -12.62%E -9.28%K -35.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV +12.55%E +1.67%K +1.93%G +0.242%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -1.48%E -0.312%K -0.395%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-28 17:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -12.62%E -9.28%K -35.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV +12.55%E +1.67%K +1.93%G +0.242%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -1.48%E -0.312%K -0.395%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-28 17:54
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -12.62%E -9.28%K -35.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV +12.55%E +1.67%K +1.93%G +0.242%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -1.48%E -0.312%K -0.395%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-28 17:54
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -12.62%E -9.28%K -35.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV +12.55%E +1.67%K +1.93%G +0.242%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -1.48%E -0.312%K -0.395%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-28 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -12.62%E -9.28%K -35.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV +12.55%E +1.67%K +1.93%G +0.242%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -1.48%E -0.312%K -0.395%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-28 17:54
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -12.62%E -9.28%K -35.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV +12.55%E +1.67%K +1.93%G +0.242%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -1.48%E -0.312%K -0.395%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-28 17:54
betPARX🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -12.62%E -9.28%K -35.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV +12.55%E +1.67%K +1.93%G +0.242%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -1.48%E -0.312%K -0.395%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-28 17:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -12.62%E -9.28%K -35.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV +12.55%E +1.67%K +1.93%G +0.242%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -1.48%E -0.312%K -0.395%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-28 17:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -12.62%E -9.28%K -35.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV +12.55%E +1.67%K +1.93%G +0.242%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -1.48%E -0.312%K -0.395%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-28 17:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.32%EV -13.90%E -10.37%K -40.89%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.21%EV +12.55%E +1.67%K +1.93%G +0.242%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.48%EV -2.52%E -0.536%K -0.680%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-28 17:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.32%EV -13.90%E -10.37%K -40.89%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.21%EV +12.55%E +1.67%K +1.93%G +0.242%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.48%EV -2.52%E -0.536%K -0.680%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-28 17:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.26%EV -8.76%E -6.17%K -20.86%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV +1.29%E +0.191%K +0.225%G +0.003%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -1.48%E -0.312%K -0.395%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-28 17:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -6.83%E -4.71%K -15.19%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.31%EV -1.71%E -0.261%K -0.308%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.06%EV -7.70%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-28 17:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -6.83%E -4.71%K -15.19%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.31%EV -1.71%E -0.261%K -0.308%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.06%EV -7.70%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-28 17:50
Coolbet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.90%EV -8.76%E -6.17%K -20.86%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -2.46%E -0.378%K -0.447%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -1.48%E -0.312%K -0.395%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-28 17:49
FanDuel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.32%EV -8.12%E -5.68%K -18.88%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -2.46%E -0.378%K -0.447%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -4.59%E -0.998%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-28 17:55
Bet Right🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -9.40%E -6.67%K -22.94%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -2.46%E -0.378%K -0.447%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -6.67%E -1.48%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-28 17:49
SportsBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -9.40%E -6.67%K -22.94%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -2.46%E -0.378%K -0.447%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -6.67%E -1.48%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-28 17:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.70%EV -11.97%E -8.74%K -32.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.06%EV -2.46%E -0.378%K -0.447%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -1.48%E -0.312%K -0.395%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-28 17:54
Bovada🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.56%EV -3.62%E -2.41%K -7.24%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.25%EV -6.21%E -0.994%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -6.67%E -1.48%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-28 17:44
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.74%EV -8.76%E -6.17%K -20.86%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.83%EV -6.96%E -1.12%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -6.67%E -1.48%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-28 18:00
BetUS🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.87%EV -5.55%E -3.77%K -11.80%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.27%EV -7.71%E -1.25%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.86%EV -6.67%E -1.48%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-28 17:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.41%EV -5.55%E -3.77%K -11.80%G +0.000%6.05I 16.53%NM 15.41%EV -9.21%E -1.52%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.18%EV -8.74%E -1.99%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-28 17:59
DraftKings🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -4.91%E -3.31%K -10.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -9.96%E -1.66%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -4.59%E -0.998%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-28 17:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.90%EV -12.62%E -9.28%K -35.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.71%EV -9.96%E -1.66%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -10.19%E -2.35%K -3.06%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-28 17:49
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.90%EV -12.62%E -9.28%K -35.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.71%EV -9.96%E -1.66%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -10.19%E -2.35%K -3.06%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-28 17:50
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.50%EV -12.62%E -9.28%K -35.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.62%EV -9.96%E -1.66%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.88%EV -12.89%E -3.07%K -4.03%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-28 17:59
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.40%EV -3.62%E -2.41%K -7.24%G +0.000%5.94I 16.84%NM 16.01%EV -10.86%E -1.83%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.59%EV -4.18%E -0.904%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-28 17:50
Betsson🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.38%EV -4.26%E -2.86%K -8.70%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.75%EV -11.46%E -1.94%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -11.85%E -2.79%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-28 17:45
NordicBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.38%EV -4.26%E -2.86%K -8.70%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.75%EV -11.46%E -1.94%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -11.85%E -2.79%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-28 17:45
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%EV -3.62%E -2.41%K -7.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -13.71%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -6.67%E -1.48%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-28 17:59
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.38%EV -7.48%E -5.19%K -16.99%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.87%EV -13.71%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -8.74%E -1.99%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-28 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.38%EV -7.48%E -5.19%K -16.99%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.87%EV -13.71%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -8.74%E -1.99%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-28 17:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.38%EV -7.48%E -5.19%K -16.99%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.87%EV -13.71%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -8.74%E -1.99%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-28 17:49
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.01%EV -4.91%E -3.31%K -10.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -17.47%E -3.18%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.57%EV -17.04%E -4.26%K -5.68%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-28 17:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.89%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.21%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.90%0.5%2026-07-28 17:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.89%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.21%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.90%0.5%2026-07-28 18:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.88%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.82%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.30%0.5%2026-07-28 18:00

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