La escuela de los momios

Dinamo Zagreb v FC Thun

2026-07-28 18:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Resultado del partido

36 corredores (9 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Dinamo Zagreb (Local)

Predicción 68.98%1.45momio equitativo
EV -4.81%
Ventaja -3.49%
Kelly -12.66%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
66.04%69.02%68.98%70.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.301.351.371.3876.92%73.80%73.26%72.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

FC Thun (Visitante)

Predicción 12.18%8.21momio equitativo
EV +0.480%
Ventaja +0.058%
Kelly +0.066%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.38%12.17%12.27%13.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.757.477.508.2514.81%13.38%13.33%12.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 18.84%5.31momio equitativo
EV -2.02%
Ventaja -0.388%
Kelly -0.480%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.65%18.81%18.75%21.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.304.704.705.2023.26%21.30%21.28%19.23%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (36 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Betr (AU)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.74%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.50%EV +0.480%E +0.058%K +0.066%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.76%EV -9.55%E -1.99%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-25 19:35
BetOnline.ag1.32I 75.76%NM 70.26%EV -8.95%E -6.78%K -27.97%G +0.000%8.15I 12.27%NM 11.38%EV -0.738%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.36%EV -4.84%E -0.959%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-24 15:10
LowVig.ag1.32I 75.76%NM 70.26%EV -8.95%E -6.78%K -27.97%G +0.000%8.15I 12.27%NM 11.38%EV -0.738%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.36%EV -4.84%E -0.959%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-24 15:10
Coolbet1.37I 72.99%NM 68.51%EV -5.50%E -4.02%K -14.87%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -2.57%E -0.321%K -0.366%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -10.50%E -2.21%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-25 19:35
SportsBet1.33I 75.19%NM 69.00%EV -8.26%E -6.21%K -25.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -2.57%E -0.321%K -0.366%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -11.44%E -2.43%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-25 19:34
FanDuel1.33I 75.19%NM 69.00%EV -8.26%E -6.21%K -25.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -2.57%E -0.321%K -0.366%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -11.44%E -2.43%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-25 19:35
Tipico (DE)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.59%EV -10.33%E -7.95%K -34.43%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.76%EV -5.00%E -0.641%K -0.735%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.65%EV -2.02%E -0.388%K -0.480%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-25 13:35
1xBet1.36I 73.53%NM 69.08%EV -6.19%E -4.55%K -17.20%G +0.000%7.65I 13.07%NM 12.28%EV -6.83%E -0.893%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.04I 19.84%NM 18.64%EV -5.03%E -0.998%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-25 15:19
Marathon Bet1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -6.88%E -5.10%K -19.66%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.27%EV -7.44%E -0.979%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -5.78%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-25 15:15
Bovada1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.70%EV -8.65%E -1.15%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.31%EV -2.02%E -0.388%K -0.480%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-25 13:46
Neds1.36I 73.53%NM 69.31%EV -6.19%E -4.55%K -17.20%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV -8.65%E -1.15%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.13%EV -2.02%E -0.388%K -0.480%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-25 13:45
DraftKings1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -7.57%E -5.65%K -22.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -8.65%E -1.15%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -5.78%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-25 18:04
Unibet1.38I 72.46%NM 66.77%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -8.65%E -1.15%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -17.09%E -3.88%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 00:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 66.77%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -8.65%E -1.15%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -17.09%E -3.88%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 00:50
Unibet (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 66.77%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -8.65%E -1.15%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -17.09%E -3.88%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 00:54
Grosvenor1.38I 72.46%NM 66.77%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -8.65%E -1.15%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -17.09%E -3.88%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 00:55
Casumo1.38I 72.46%NM 66.77%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -8.65%E -1.15%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -17.09%E -3.88%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 00:55
Unibet (NL)1.38I 72.46%NM 66.77%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -8.65%E -1.15%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -17.09%E -3.88%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 00:54
TABtouch1.38I 72.46%NM 66.77%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -8.65%E -1.15%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -17.09%E -3.88%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 00:55
betPARX1.38I 72.46%NM 66.77%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -8.65%E -1.15%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -17.09%E -3.88%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 00:55
ATG (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 66.77%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -8.65%E -1.15%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -17.09%E -3.88%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 00:55
Svenska Spel1.38I 72.46%NM 66.77%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -8.65%E -1.15%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -17.09%E -3.88%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 00:55
Bet Right1.35I 74.07%NM 67.87%EV -6.88%E -5.10%K -19.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -8.65%E -1.15%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -13.32%E -2.90%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-25 19:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.30I 76.92%NM 68.68%EV -10.33%E -7.95%K -34.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -8.65%E -1.15%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -13.32%E -2.90%K -3.70%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-25 19:35
Paddy Power1.30I 76.92%NM 68.39%EV -10.33%E -7.95%K -34.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -8.65%E -1.15%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.76%EV -15.21%E -3.38%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-25 19:35
Betsson1.37I 72.99%NM 68.40%EV -5.50%E -4.02%K -14.87%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.66%EV -9.87%E -1.33%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.93%EV -6.73%E -1.36%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-26 06:34
NordicBet1.37I 72.99%NM 68.40%EV -5.50%E -4.02%K -14.87%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.66%EV -9.87%E -1.33%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.93%EV -6.73%E -1.36%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-26 06:34
BetUS1.38I 72.46%NM 67.22%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -14.74%E -2.11%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -10.50%E -2.21%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-24 13:15
888sport1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -6.19%E -4.55%K -17.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -14.74%E -2.11%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -9.55%E -1.99%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-25 16:40
888sport (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -6.19%E -4.55%K -17.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -14.74%E -2.11%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -9.55%E -1.99%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-25 16:40
Mr Green (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -6.19%E -4.55%K -17.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -14.74%E -2.11%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -9.55%E -1.99%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-25 16:40
Virgin Bet1.37I 72.99%NM 66.04%EV -5.50%E -4.02%K -14.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -14.74%E -2.11%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.04%EV -18.97%E -4.41%K -5.75%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-24 00:55
LiveScore Bet1.37I 72.99%NM 66.04%EV -5.50%E -4.02%K -14.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -14.74%E -2.11%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.04%EV -18.97%E -4.41%K -5.75%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-24 00:55
BoyleSports1.30I 76.92%NM 68.52%EV -10.33%E -7.95%K -34.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -14.74%E -2.11%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.75%EV -10.50%E -2.21%K -2.80%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-24 16:54
Unibet (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 68.12%EV -10.33%E -7.95%K -34.43%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 12.83%EV -15.96%E -2.31%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.04%EV -12.38%E -2.66%K -3.39%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-25 16:15
PlayUp1.35I 74.07%NM 66.96%EV -6.88%E -5.10%K -19.66%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.39%EV -17.79%E -2.64%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -13.32%E -2.90%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-26 06:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.39I 71.94%NM 70.16%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.08%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.75%2.5%2026-07-26 06:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.39I 71.94%NM 70.16%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.08%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.75%2.5%2026-07-26 06:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.38I 72.46%NM 70.31%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.03%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.66%3.1%2026-07-26 06:00