The School of Odds
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Aston Villa v Fenerbahce

2026-10-14 19:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aston Villa (Local)

Prediction 55.46%1.80fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -3.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.14%55.49%55.37%57.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.691.721.7563.29%59.21%58.14%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fenerbahce (Visit)

Prediction 20.55%4.87fair odd
EV -0.967%
Edge -0.201%
Kelly -0.253%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.14%20.63%20.54%21.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.454.404.8224.39%22.45%22.73%20.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.00%4.17fair odd
EV +1.03%
Edge +0.245%
Kelly +0.321%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 4.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.43%23.88%24.09%24.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.633.873.804.2127.55%25.85%26.32%23.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Aston Villa (Local): 55.46%; Fenerbahce (Visit): 20.55%; Draw: 24.00%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.17. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.21, producing a positive expected value of +1.03%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 56.22%EV -2.95%E -1.69%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 20.41%EV -0.967%E -0.201%K -0.253%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 23.37%EV +1.03%E +0.245%K +0.321%G +0.003%1.6%2026-09-12 19:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.99%EV -4.06%E -2.35%K -5.56%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.39%EV -2.40%E -0.506%K -0.641%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.62%EV -1.61%E -0.392%K -0.519%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-12 19:40
SportsBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.34%EV -6.83%E -4.07%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.58%EV -5.49%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -1.61%E -0.392%K -0.519%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-12 14:20
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.13%EV -10.72%E -6.66%K -17.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44%EV -7.54%E -1.68%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -1.61%E -0.392%K -0.519%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 14:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.97%EV -5.73%E -3.37%K -8.18%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%EV -3.43%E -0.730%K -0.928%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -4.01%E -1.00%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 14:20
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.72%EV -5.73%E -3.37%K -8.18%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.59%EV -5.49%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -4.01%E -1.00%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.73%E -3.37%K -8.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -7.54%E -1.68%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -4.01%E -1.00%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -7.39%E -4.42%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -7.54%E -1.68%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -4.01%E -1.00%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -7.39%E -4.42%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -7.54%E -1.68%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -4.01%E -1.00%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 14:20
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -7.39%E -4.42%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -7.54%E -1.68%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -4.01%E -1.00%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.63%EV -4.62%E -2.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.14%EV -2.40%E -0.506%K -0.641%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.22%EV -5.21%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-12 14:20
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.63%EV -4.62%E -2.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.14%EV -2.40%E -0.506%K -0.641%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.22%EV -5.21%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-12 14:18
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.63%EV -7.94%E -4.79%K -12.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -9.60%E -2.18%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.38%EV -5.21%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Pinnacle🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.60%EV -4.62%E -2.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 21.44%EV -10.01%E -2.28%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.96%EV -5.93%E -1.51%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -4.62%E -2.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.60%E -2.18%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -8.81%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:20
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -4.62%E -2.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.60%E -2.18%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -8.81%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Grosvenor🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -4.62%E -2.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.60%E -2.18%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -8.81%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -4.62%E -2.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.60%E -2.18%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -8.81%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -4.62%E -2.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.60%E -2.18%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -8.81%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -4.62%E -2.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.60%E -2.18%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -8.81%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -4.62%E -2.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.60%E -2.18%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -8.81%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -4.62%E -2.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.60%E -2.18%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -8.81%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:20
TABtouch🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -4.62%E -2.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.60%E -2.18%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -8.81%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -4.62%E -2.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.60%E -2.18%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -8.81%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -4.62%E -2.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.60%E -2.18%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -8.81%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:20
betPARX🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -4.62%E -2.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.60%E -2.18%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -8.81%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Bally Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -4.62%E -2.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.60%E -2.18%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -8.81%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -4.62%E -2.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.60%E -2.18%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -8.81%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -7.39%E -4.42%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -7.54%E -1.68%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.81%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-12 14:17
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -7.39%E -4.42%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -7.54%E -1.68%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.81%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-12 14:20
Suprabets🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.14%EV -6.28%E -3.72%K -9.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -13.71%E -3.26%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.08%EV -8.81%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 14:19
LeoVegas🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.24%EV -9.05%E -5.52%K -14.14%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.92%EV -11.03%E -2.55%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -8.81%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-12 14:20
ReBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.10%EV -8.50%E -5.15%K -13.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -9.60%E -2.18%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -10.01%E -2.67%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.52%EV -10.72%E -6.66%K -17.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.32%EV -9.60%E -2.18%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -11.21%E -3.03%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-12 14:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.26%EV -10.72%E -6.66%K -17.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.69%EV -11.65%E -2.71%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.05%EV -11.21%E -3.03%K -4.15%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.00%EV -12.38%E -7.84%K -21.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.19%EV -15.76%E -3.84%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.81%EV -12.41%E -3.40%K -4.68%G +0.000%15.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 55.18%EV -11.83%E -7.44%K -20.04%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.65%EV -12.68%E -2.98%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.17%EV -12.89%E -3.55%K -4.90%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-12 14:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 56.39%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.09%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.52%3.7%2026-09-12 17:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 56.39%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.09%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.52%3.7%2026-09-12 17:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 56.39%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.09%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.52%3.7%2026-09-12 17:00
Smarkets◎1.58I 63.29%NM 54.44%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.98%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.58%16.3%2026-09-12 14:20