Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aston Villa v Fenerbahce

2026-10-14 19:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aston Villa (Local)

Prediction 55.09%1.82fair odd
EV -0.838%
Edge -0.465%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.81%55.10%55.08%56.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.701.701.8061.35%58.95%58.82%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fenerbahce (Visit)

Prediction 20.79%4.81fair odd
EV +3.93%
Edge +0.786%
Kelly +0.982%
Growth +0.039%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.83%20.80%20.71%21.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.474.405.0023.81%22.36%22.73%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.12%4.15fair odd
EV +1.32%
Edge +0.314%
Kelly +0.413%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.06%24.10%24.21%25.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.873.854.2027.40%25.87%25.97%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Aston Villa (Local): 55.09%; Fenerbahce (Visit): 20.79%; Draw: 24.12%. For Fenerbahce (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.81. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.00, producing a positive expected value of +3.93%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.39%EV -8.00%E -4.79%K -11.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV +3.93%E +0.786%K +0.982%G +0.039%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -8.33%E -2.19%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-02 11:40
1xBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 54.70%EV -0.838%E -0.465%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.88I 20.49%NM 20.18%EV +1.44%E +0.294%K +0.370%G +0.005%3.92I 25.51%NM 25.12%EV -5.43%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.6%2026-09-30 13:04
Coolbet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.30%EV -4.69%E -2.71%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.51%EV -1.27%E -0.267%K -0.338%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.19%EV +1.32%E +0.314%K +0.413%G +0.005%2.7%2026-09-25 11:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.75%EV -3.59%E -2.05%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -1.27%E -0.267%K -0.338%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.08%EV -7.85%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-30 13:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.82%EV -4.14%E -2.38%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.08%EV -1.27%E -0.267%K -0.338%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.10%EV -8.33%E -2.19%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-02 15:44
SportsBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.09%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.07%EV -1.27%E -0.267%K -0.338%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -3.50%E -0.876%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-02 15:38
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.08%EV -3.59%E -2.05%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.51%EV -2.31%E -0.491%K -0.623%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.40%EV -4.71%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-02 11:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.97%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%EV -2.31%E -0.491%K -0.623%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -3.50%E -0.876%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-02 11:40
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.07%EV -8.00%E -4.79%K -11.94%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -2.31%E -0.491%K -0.623%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01%EV -5.92%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-02 15:40
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.22%EV -5.24%E -3.05%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.43%EV -3.35%E -0.719%K -0.917%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -5.92%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 11:40
GTbets🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.81%EV -2.49%E -1.41%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.12%EV -6.26%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -8.33%E -2.19%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 00:09
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.04%EV -4.69%E -2.71%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -6.46%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -3.50%E -0.876%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-25 11:35
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.94%EV -6.90%E -4.08%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -6.46%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.06%EV -1.09%E -0.266%K -0.352%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-02 16:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -6.46%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -3.50%E -0.876%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-25 11:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -6.46%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -3.50%E -0.876%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-02 16:10
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -6.46%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -3.50%E -0.876%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-02 16:10
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -6.46%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -3.50%E -0.876%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-02 16:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -6.46%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -3.50%E -0.876%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-02 16:10
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.46%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -9.54%E -2.54%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-02 11:40
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.46%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -9.54%E -2.54%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-02 11:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.46%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -9.54%E -2.54%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-02 11:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.46%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -9.54%E -2.54%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-02 11:40
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -8.00%E -4.79%K -11.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.46%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -5.92%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-02 15:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -8.00%E -4.79%K -11.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.46%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -5.92%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-02 11:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.76%EV -6.90%E -4.08%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -6.46%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -9.54%E -2.54%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-01 09:50
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -8.00%E -4.79%K -11.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -6.46%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.33%E -2.19%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-02 15:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.70%EV -10.20%E -6.26%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.40%EV -7.50%E -1.69%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -8.33%E -2.19%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-02 11:40
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.29%EV -3.59%E -2.05%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.59%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.11%EV -4.95%E -1.26%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 11:45
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.73%EV -5.80%E -3.39%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -5.92%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-21 21:09
Bovada🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -4.71%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-02 16:12
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -5.92%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-26 06:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.71%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -7.12%E -1.85%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 09:48
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.71%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -7.12%E -1.85%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 09:50
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.71%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -7.12%E -1.85%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 09:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.71%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -7.12%E -1.85%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 09:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.71%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -7.12%E -1.85%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 09:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.71%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -7.12%E -1.85%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 09:50
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.71%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -7.12%E -1.85%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 09:49
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.71%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -7.12%E -1.85%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 09:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.71%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -7.12%E -1.85%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 09:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.71%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -7.12%E -1.85%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 09:50
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.71%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -7.12%E -1.85%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 09:50
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.71%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -7.12%E -1.85%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 09:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.71%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -7.12%E -1.85%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 09:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.80%EV -8.55%E -5.15%K -12.96%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.15%EV -3.50%E -0.876%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-02 11:39
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.68%EV -6.90%E -4.08%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.33%E -2.19%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-02 11:40
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.65%EV -7.45%E -4.43%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -9.54%E -2.54%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-02 11:39
ReBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.10%EV -9.10%E -5.52%K -14.00%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -9.54%E -2.54%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-02 11:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.42%EV -9.65%E -5.89%K -15.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -8.33%E -2.19%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-02 11:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.03%EV -10.20%E -6.26%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.39%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -11.95%E -3.27%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-02 11:56
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.91%EV -4.69%E -2.71%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -10.00%E -2.31%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -8.33%E -2.19%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-02 11:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.66%EV -9.65%E -5.89%K -15.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.23%EV -10.62%E -2.47%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.11%EV -4.71%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-02 11:39
TAB🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.07%EV -7.45%E -4.43%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.37%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.55%EV -10.74%E -2.90%K -3.98%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-02 11:39
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -12.70%E -3.02%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -8.33%E -2.19%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-30 15:30
Suprabets🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.89%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -12.70%E -3.02%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.30%EV -9.05%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-02 11:40
LeoVegas🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.88%EV -9.65%E -5.89%K -15.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.43%EV -12.70%E -3.02%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -8.33%E -2.19%K -2.97%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-02 11:40
Casumo🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.53%EV -9.65%E -5.89%K -15.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -12.70%E -3.02%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.17%EV -10.74%E -2.90%K -3.98%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-01 09:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 55.72%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.63%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%3.1%2026-10-02 16:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 55.72%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.63%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%3.1%2026-10-02 16:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 55.72%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.63%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%3.1%2026-10-02 16:15
Smarkets◎1.73I 57.80%NM 55.37%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.38%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.25%4.4%2026-10-02 16:20
Arbitrage (3 combinations) +0.64%1xBet 1.80 (55.9%) / BetUS 5.00 (20.1%) / Coolbet 4.20 (24.0%)Show all 3 combinations
Aston Villa (Local)Fenerbahce (Visit)DrawMargin
1xBet🎯 1.80 (55.9%)BetUS🎯 5.00 (20.1%)Coolbet🎯 4.20 (24.0%)+0.639%
1xBet🎯 1.80 (55.6%)1xBet🎯 4.88 (20.5%)Coolbet🎯 4.20 (23.8%)+0.143%
1xBet🎯 1.80 (55.6%)BetUS🎯 5.00 (20.0%)BetMGM🎯 4.10 (24.4%)+0.054%