Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Trabzonspor v Galatasaray

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 17:00 UTC

Final: Trabzonspor 4–0 Galatasaray

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Trabzonspor (Local)

Prediction 31.35%3.19fair odd
EV +1.89%
Edge +0.582%
Kelly +0.841%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.48%31.20%31.46%32.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.993.003.2535.71%33.47%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Galatasaray (Visit)

Prediction 43.41%2.30fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -2.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.57%43.47%43.38%45.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.132.122.2250.00%46.97%47.17%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.24%3.96fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -0.399%
Kelly -0.536%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.05%25.33%25.16%26.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.673.703.9029.41%27.28%27.03%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Trabzonspor (Local): 31.35%; Galatasaray (Visit): 43.41%; Draw: 25.24%. For Trabzonspor (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.19. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.89%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.48%EV +1.89%E +0.582%K +0.841%G +0.016%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.63%EV -8.85%E -4.21%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.89%EV -2.82%E -0.732%K -0.988%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-19 15:55
BetOnline.ag🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 29.78%EV +1.27%E +0.392%K +0.567%G +0.007%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.37%EV -7.98%E -3.76%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.85%EV -2.31%E -0.597%K -0.806%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-19 16:00
LowVig.ag🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 29.78%EV +1.27%E +0.392%K +0.567%G +0.007%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.37%EV -7.98%E -3.76%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.85%EV -2.31%E -0.597%K -0.806%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-19 16:00
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV +0.325%E +0.101%K +0.148%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -8.85%E -4.21%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -6.60%E -1.78%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 14:02
1xBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.44%EV -1.24%E -0.395%K -0.578%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.78%EV -4.94%E -2.26%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.78%EV -6.10%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-19 16:54
Pinnacle🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 30.79%EV -1.56%E -0.496%K -0.727%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.56%EV -3.64%E -1.64%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.65%EV -4.84%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-19 16:50
GTbets🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 30.12%EV -2.18%E -0.700%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.75%EV -8.85%E -4.21%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.13%EV -5.59%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 14:02
Coolbet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.81%E -0.907%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.41%EV -6.68%E -3.11%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -2.82%E -0.732%K -0.988%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-19 16:45
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -2.81%E -0.907%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -6.68%E -3.11%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -9.13%E -2.54%K -3.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 16:53
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.85%EV -4.38%E -1.44%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.39%EV -7.98%E -3.76%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -4.08%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:49
Grosvenor🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.85%EV -4.38%E -1.44%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.39%EV -7.98%E -3.76%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -4.08%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:49
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.85%EV -4.38%E -1.44%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.39%EV -7.98%E -3.76%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -4.08%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:49
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.85%EV -4.38%E -1.44%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.39%EV -7.98%E -3.76%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -4.08%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:49
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.85%EV -4.38%E -1.44%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.39%EV -7.98%E -3.76%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -4.08%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:49
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.85%EV -4.38%E -1.44%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.39%EV -7.98%E -3.76%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -4.08%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:49
betPARX🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.85%EV -4.38%E -1.44%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.39%EV -7.98%E -3.76%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -4.08%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:49
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.85%EV -4.38%E -1.44%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.39%EV -7.98%E -3.76%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -4.08%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:49
TABtouch🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.85%EV -4.38%E -1.44%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.39%EV -7.98%E -3.76%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -4.08%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:49
SportsBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -4.38%E -1.44%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.78%EV -5.37%E -2.47%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -11.65%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-19 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.95%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -6.60%E -1.78%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 16:54
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.95%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -6.60%E -1.78%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 16:54
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.95%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -6.60%E -1.78%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 16:54
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -5.95%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -6.68%E -3.11%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.08%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 16:19
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -5.95%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.67%EV -8.85%E -4.21%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -1.55%E -0.399%K -0.536%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-19 16:54
Marathon Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.00%EV -5.95%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.45%EV -7.11%E -3.32%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.55%EV -8.12%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 16:54
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.78%EV -5.95%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.56%EV -7.98%E -3.76%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -9.13%E -2.54%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-19 16:38
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -7.51%E -2.55%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.34%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-19 16:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.66%EV -7.51%E -2.55%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -6.68%E -3.11%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -5.34%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-19 16:39
Neds🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -7.51%E -2.55%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.13%E -2.54%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-19 16:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -7.51%E -2.55%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.13%E -2.54%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-19 16:55
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -7.51%E -2.55%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.90%EV -3.64%E -1.64%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -11.65%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 16:54
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.39%EV -7.51%E -2.55%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.09%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 26.53%EV -11.90%E -3.41%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-19 16:54
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -9.08%E -3.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -6.68%E -3.11%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -9.13%E -2.54%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-19 16:54
Bet Right🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -9.08%E -3.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -8.85%E -4.21%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -6.60%E -1.78%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-19 16:40
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.08%E -3.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -14.18%E -4.17%K -5.91%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-19 16:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.08%E -3.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -14.18%E -4.17%K -5.91%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-19 16:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.08%E -3.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -14.18%E -4.17%K -5.91%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-19 16:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -9.08%E -3.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.81%EV -10.58%E -5.14%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.07%EV -9.13%E -2.54%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-19 16:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -9.08%E -3.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.81%EV -10.58%E -5.14%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.07%EV -9.13%E -2.54%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-19 16:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -9.08%E -3.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.81%EV -10.58%E -5.14%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.07%EV -9.13%E -2.54%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-19 16:49
PMU (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -9.08%E -3.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.81%EV -10.58%E -5.14%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.07%EV -9.13%E -2.54%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-19 16:49
BetRivers🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.99%EV -9.08%E -3.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.05%EV -11.45%E -5.61%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.96%EV -9.13%E -2.54%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-19 16:49
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -9.08%E -3.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -8.85%E -4.21%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -14.18%E -4.17%K -5.91%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-19 16:55
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -9.08%E -3.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -11.02%E -5.37%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -14.18%E -4.17%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-19 16:25
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -9.71%E -3.37%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.68%EV -8.85%E -4.21%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -5.34%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-19 16:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.61%EV -10.02%E -3.49%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.20%EV -8.85%E -4.21%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -9.13%E -2.54%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-19 16:54
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.76%EV -10.65%E -3.74%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.10%EV -8.85%E -4.21%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -9.13%E -2.54%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-19 16:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -10.65%E -3.74%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.30%EV -13.19%E -6.59%K -13.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.61%EV -9.13%E -2.54%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-19 16:54
NetBet (FR)🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 31.57%EV -11.59%E -4.11%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.00%EV -10.15%E -4.90%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.43%EV -11.65%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-19 16:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14%EV -12.22%E -4.36%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.86%EV -8.85%E -4.21%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -9.13%E -2.54%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-19 16:55
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -12.22%E -4.36%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -11.02%E -5.37%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -9.13%E -2.54%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-19 16:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.23%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.17%0.6%2026-09-19 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.23%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.17%0.6%2026-09-19 16:55
Matchbook◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.23%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.17%0.6%2026-09-19 16:55
Smarkets◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.08%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.43%0.9%2026-09-19 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.45%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%0.9%2026-09-19 16:55
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 31.40%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.16%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.45%2.1%2026-09-19 16:50