La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Fenerbahce v Basaksehir
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Fenerbahce (Local)
Predicción 54.43%1.84momio equitativo
EV -3.66%
Ventaja -2.07%
Kelly -4.75%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.77
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.00%54.50%54.48%56.93%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.571.681.701.7763.69%59.40%58.82%56.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Basaksehir (Visitante)
Predicción 22.77%4.39momio equitativo
EV +8.18%
Ventaja +1.72%
Kelly +2.18%
Crecimiento +0.178%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.75
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.71%22.74%22.70%24.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.754.224.204.7526.67%23.68%23.81%21.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 22.79%4.39momio equitativo
EV -1.08%
Ventaja -0.248%
Kelly -0.323%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.34
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.92%22.76%22.82%25.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.304.024.004.3430.30%24.87%25.00%23.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -10.19%E -6.17%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV +8.18%E +1.72%K +2.18%G +0.178% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-02 16:11 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -10.19%E -6.17%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV +8.18%E +1.72%K +2.18%G +0.178% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-02 16:10 |
| Unibet | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -10.73%E -6.54%K -16.77%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV +7.04%E +1.50%K +1.90%G +0.134% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 16:10 |
| Grosvenor | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -10.73%E -6.54%K -16.77%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV +7.04%E +1.50%K +1.90%G +0.134% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 16:11 |
| Casumo | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -10.73%E -6.54%K -16.77%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV +7.04%E +1.50%K +1.90%G +0.134% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 16:10 |
| TABtouch | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -10.73%E -6.54%K -16.77%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV +7.04%E +1.50%K +1.90%G +0.134% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 16:10 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -10.73%E -6.54%K -16.77%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV +7.04%E +1.50%K +1.90%G +0.134% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 16:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -10.73%E -6.54%K -16.77%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV +7.04%E +1.50%K +1.90%G +0.134% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 16:10 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -10.73%E -6.54%K -16.77%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV +7.04%E +1.50%K +1.90%G +0.134% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 16:10 |
| betPARX | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -10.73%E -6.54%K -16.77%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV +7.04%E +1.50%K +1.90%G +0.134% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 16:11 |
| BetRivers | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.84%EV -11.28%E -6.92%K -17.90%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.71%EV +7.04%E +1.50%K +1.90%G +0.134% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -9.97%E -2.52%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-02 16:10 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.88%EV -12.91%E -8.07%K -21.51%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV +4.76%E +1.04%K +1.32%G +0.063% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.34%EV -11.11%E -2.85%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-02 16:11 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.58I 63.29%NM 56.77%EV -14.00%E -8.86%K -24.13%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.93%EV +2.49%E +0.553%K +0.710%G +0.018% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.30%EV -12.25%E -3.18%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-02 16:10 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.58I 63.29%NM 56.77%EV -14.00%E -8.86%K -24.13%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.93%EV +2.49%E +0.553%K +0.710%G +0.018% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.30%EV -12.25%E -3.18%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-02 16:11 |
| LeoVegas | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.93%EV -14.54%E -9.26%K -25.51%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.86%EV +2.49%E +0.553%K +0.710%G +0.018% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.21%EV -12.25%E -3.18%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-02 16:10 |
| FanDuel | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.39%EV -8.01%E -4.74%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.77%EV -2.07%E -0.481%K -0.627%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -6.55%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-02 16:04 |
| Pinnacle | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.53%EV -3.66%E -2.07%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.71%EV -3.21%E -0.755%K -0.987%G +0.000% | 4.24I 23.58%NM 22.76%EV -3.36%E -0.792%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-02 16:50 |
| 1xBet | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.79%EV -3.66%E -2.07%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 4.24I 23.58%NM 22.87%EV -3.43%E -0.810%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.34I 23.04%NM 22.34%EV -1.08%E -0.248%K -0.323%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-02 16:55 |
| Coolbet | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.12%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.70%EV -4.35%E -1.03%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.18%EV -1.99%E -0.463%K -0.603%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-02 16:15 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.10%EV -4.20%E -2.39%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -4.35%E -1.03%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.55%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 16:50 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.10%EV -4.20%E -2.39%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -4.35%E -1.03%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.55%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 16:49 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -4.35%E -1.03%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -4.27%E -1.02%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-02 16:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -4.35%E -1.03%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -4.27%E -1.02%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-02 16:05 |
| Coral | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -4.35%E -1.03%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -4.27%E -1.02%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-02 16:05 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.55%EV -7.47%E -4.39%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -4.35%E -1.03%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -1.99%E -0.463%K -0.603%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-02 16:26 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -4.35%E -1.03%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -6.55%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-02 16:40 |
| Everygame | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.96%EV -7.47%E -4.39%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -4.35%E -1.03%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -6.55%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-02 16:50 |
| SportsBet | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -7.47%E -4.39%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -4.35%E -1.03%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-02 16:05 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.92%E -4.05%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.46%EV -5.48%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.02%EV -7.69%E -1.90%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 16:41 |
| Neds | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -6.62%E -1.62%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -6.55%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-02 16:06 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -6.62%E -1.62%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -6.55%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-02 16:05 |
| Fanatics | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.92%E -4.05%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.62%E -1.62%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.55%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 16:05 |
| GTbets | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.84%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.06%EV -6.85%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.09%EV -2.67%E -0.626%K -0.817%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-02 16:11 |
| NordicBet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.07%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.96%EV -7.76%E -1.92%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.96%EV -7.69%E -1.90%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-02 16:49 |
| Betsson | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.07%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.96%EV -7.76%E -1.92%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.96%EV -7.69%E -1.90%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-02 16:40 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -7.47%E -4.39%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -8.90%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -3.13%E -0.736%K -0.963%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-02 16:15 |
| Bovada | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -6.92%E -4.05%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -8.90%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-02 16:49 |
| BetUS | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -6.92%E -4.05%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -8.90%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-02 16:50 |
| betfred_uk | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.47%E -4.39%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -8.90%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 16:15 |
| Bet Right | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.47%E -4.39%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -8.90%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 16:15 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -9.10%E -5.45%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -8.90%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 22.84%EV -9.28%E -2.33%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-02 16:35 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.95%EV -10.73%E -6.54%K -16.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -8.90%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-02 16:35 |
| Paddy Power | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.85%EV -9.10%E -5.45%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -8.90%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -13.39%E -3.52%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-02 16:10 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.49%EV -8.55%E -5.09%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.18%EV -10.04%E -2.54%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -6.55%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-02 16:35 |
| 888sport | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -11.18%E -2.87%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -11.11%E -2.85%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-02 16:55 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -11.18%E -2.87%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -11.11%E -2.85%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-02 16:55 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -11.18%E -2.87%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -11.11%E -2.85%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-02 16:55 |
| Sky Bet | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.54%EV -9.10%E -5.45%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -11.18%E -2.87%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -13.39%E -3.52%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-02 16:05 |
| Betway | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.97%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -13.46%E -3.54%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-02 16:41 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.00%EV -9.64%E -5.81%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.59%EV -13.46%E -3.54%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-02 16:35 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.13%EV -12.36%E -7.68%K -20.27%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.93%EV -13.46%E -3.54%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.93%EV -13.39%E -3.52%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-05-02 16:55 |
| BoyleSports | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -9.10%E -5.45%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -14.59%E -3.89%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-02 16:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.62I 61.73%NM 52.00%EV -11.82%E -7.30%K -19.06%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.47%EV -14.59%E -3.89%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.53%EV -24.78%E -7.51%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 18.7% | 2026-05-02 16:05 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.28% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.11% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.61% | 0.5% | 2026-05-02 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.41% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 0.8% | 2026-05-02 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.41% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 0.8% | 2026-05-02 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.41% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 0.8% | 2026-05-02 16:50 |
| Kalshi | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.40% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.80% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.80% | 0.8% | 2026-05-02 16:50 |
| Smarkets | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.43% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.43% | 1.3% | 2026-05-02 16:55 |