Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Besiktas JK v Erzurum BB

2026-09-11 17:00 UTC — Turkey Super League

Resultado del partido

41 corredores (13 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Besiktas JK (Local)

Predicción 71.92%1.39momio equitativo
EV -2.91%
Ventaja -2.16%
Kelly -8.31%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
69.00%71.98%71.82%74.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.231.281.281.3581.30%77.87%78.13%74.07%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Erzurum BB (Visitante)

Predicción 9.69%10.32momio equitativo
EV +10.45%
Ventaja +0.916%
Kelly +1.00%
Crecimiento +0.105%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 11.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
8.52%9.70%9.75%11.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
7.259.339.5011.4013.79%10.72%10.53%8.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 18.39%5.44momio equitativo
EV +2.82%
Ventaja +0.504%
Kelly +0.614%
Crecimiento +0.017%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.59

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.12%18.32%18.43%19.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.405.035.025.5922.73%19.86%19.92%17.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Besiktas JK (Local): 71.92%; Erzurum BB (Visitante): 9.69%; Empate: 18.39%. Para Erzurum BB (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 10.32. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 11.40, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +10.45%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (41 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%EV -5.79%E -4.42%K -18.67%G +0.000%11.40I 8.77%NM 8.52%EV +10.45%E +0.916%K +1.00%G +0.105%5.59I 17.89%NM 17.37%EV +2.82%E +0.504%K +0.614%G +0.017%3.0%2026-09-06 22:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.97%EV -7.94%E -6.21%K -28.37%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.90%EV +1.73%E +0.165%K +0.182%G +0.003%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.14%EV -5.27%E -1.02%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 22:25
Betsson🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.54%EV -6.51%E -5.00%K -21.69%G +0.000%10.01I 9.99%NM 9.29%EV -3.02%E -0.302%K -0.335%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.17%EV -10.79%E -2.23%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-06 21:35
NordicBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.54%EV -6.51%E -5.00%K -21.69%G +0.000%10.01I 9.99%NM 9.29%EV -3.02%E -0.302%K -0.335%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.17%EV -10.79%E -2.23%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-06 21:35
Coolbet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.28%EV -5.07%E -3.84%K -15.84%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.54%EV -3.12%E -0.312%K -0.346%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.17%EV -3.44%E -0.654%K -0.808%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 21:40
Fanatics🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.34%EV -7.23%E -5.60%K -24.91%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -3.12%E -0.312%K -0.346%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV +1.16%E +0.211%K +0.258%G +0.003%5.7%2026-09-06 22:23
ATG (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.59%EV -6.51%E -5.00%K -21.69%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -3.12%E -0.312%K -0.346%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -3.44%E -0.654%K -0.808%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 22:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.59%EV -6.51%E -5.00%K -21.69%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -3.12%E -0.312%K -0.346%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -3.44%E -0.654%K -0.808%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 22:19
FanDuel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.62%EV -7.23%E -5.60%K -24.91%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -3.12%E -0.312%K -0.346%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -4.35%E -0.837%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 21:45
SportsBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.90%EV -7.94%E -6.21%K -28.37%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV -3.12%E -0.312%K -0.346%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -3.44%E -0.654%K -0.808%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 21:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.25%EV -7.94%E -6.21%K -28.37%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -3.12%E -0.312%K -0.346%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -8.03%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-06 21:40
GTbets🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.06%EV -2.91%E -2.16%K -8.31%G +0.000%9.76I 10.25%NM 9.83%EV -5.44%E -0.558%K -0.621%G +0.000%5.02I 19.92%NM 19.11%EV -7.67%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-06 21:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -6.51%E -5.00%K -21.69%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -7.96%E -0.838%K -0.937%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -8.03%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-06 22:19
betfred_uk🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.75%EV -7.23%E -5.60%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -7.96%E -0.838%K -0.937%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -8.03%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 21:40
BoyleSports🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.75%EV -7.23%E -5.60%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -7.96%E -0.838%K -0.937%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -8.03%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 23:15
Unibet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.16%EV -7.94%E -6.21%K -28.37%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.72%EV -7.96%E -0.838%K -0.937%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -6.19%E -1.21%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 22:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.16%EV -7.94%E -6.21%K -28.37%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.72%EV -7.96%E -0.838%K -0.937%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -6.19%E -1.21%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 22:20
TABtouch🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.16%EV -7.94%E -6.21%K -28.37%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.72%EV -7.96%E -0.838%K -0.937%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -6.19%E -1.21%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 22:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.16%EV -7.94%E -6.21%K -28.37%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.72%EV -7.96%E -0.838%K -0.937%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -6.19%E -1.21%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 22:19
Grosvenor🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.16%EV -7.94%E -6.21%K -28.37%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.72%EV -7.96%E -0.838%K -0.937%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -6.19%E -1.21%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 22:20
Casumo🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.16%EV -7.94%E -6.21%K -28.37%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.72%EV -7.96%E -0.838%K -0.937%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -6.19%E -1.21%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 22:19
betPARX🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.16%EV -7.94%E -6.21%K -28.37%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.72%EV -7.96%E -0.838%K -0.937%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -6.19%E -1.21%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 22:19
Bet Right🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.64%EV -7.94%E -6.21%K -28.37%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -7.96%E -0.838%K -0.937%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.71%EV -9.87%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 21:40
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.38%EV -10.10%E -8.08%K -40.41%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -7.96%E -0.838%K -0.937%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -8.03%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-06 21:44
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.37%EV -4.35%E -3.27%K -13.18%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.55%EV -12.80%E -1.42%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -3.44%E -0.654%K -0.808%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 21:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.37%EV -4.35%E -3.27%K -13.18%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.55%EV -12.80%E -1.42%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -3.44%E -0.654%K -0.808%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 21:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.42%EV -6.51%E -5.00%K -21.69%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -12.80%E -1.42%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV +1.16%E +0.211%K +0.258%G +0.003%6.2%2026-09-06 22:50
Betway🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -7.23%E -5.60%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -12.80%E -1.42%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -8.03%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 23:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.68%EV -8.66%E -6.82%K -32.09%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.11%EV -12.80%E -1.42%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.21%EV -8.03%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-06 21:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.68%EV -8.66%E -6.82%K -32.09%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.11%EV -12.80%E -1.42%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.21%EV -8.03%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-06 21:35
BetRivers🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 71.57%EV -9.38%E -7.45%K -36.09%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.02%EV -12.80%E -1.42%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.40%EV -9.87%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-06 21:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.18%EV -10.10%E -8.08%K -40.41%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.89%EV -12.80%E -1.42%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.93%EV -13.55%E -2.88%K -3.66%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-06 23:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 71.63%EV -10.82%E -8.73%K -45.09%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.87%EV -12.80%E -1.42%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.50%EV -11.71%E -2.44%K -3.08%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 22:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 71.63%EV -10.82%E -8.73%K -45.09%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.87%EV -12.80%E -1.42%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.50%EV -11.71%E -2.44%K -3.08%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 22:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 70.82%EV -9.38%E -7.45%K -36.09%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.20%EV -15.23%E -1.74%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.99%EV -13.55%E -2.88%K -3.66%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-06 22:20
Neds🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.97%EV -5.07%E -3.84%K -15.84%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.02%EV -17.65%E -2.08%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -4.35%E -0.837%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 21:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.97%EV -5.07%E -3.84%K -15.84%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.02%EV -17.65%E -2.08%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -4.35%E -0.837%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 21:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.16%EV -10.10%E -8.08%K -40.41%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 10.57%EV -19.59%E -2.36%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.27%EV -16.31%E -3.58%K -4.59%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-06 22:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.53%EV -8.66%E -6.82%K -32.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.20%EV -22.49%E -2.81%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.28%EV -9.87%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-06 22:20
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 69.23%EV -10.10%E -8.08%K -40.41%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.54%EV -27.34%E -3.64%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.23%EV -17.23%E -3.83%K -4.92%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-06 21:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 69.00%EV -11.54%E -9.38%K -50.18%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 11.71%EV -29.76%E -4.10%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.29%EV -19.07%E -4.33%K -5.61%G +0.000%17.8%2026-09-06 22:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets1.24I 80.65%NM 69.09%7.80I 12.82%NM 10.98%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.92%16.7%2026-09-06 22:20
Kalshi1.33I 75.19%NM 37.70%1.61I 62.11%NM 31.15%1.61I 62.11%NM 31.15%99.4%2026-09-07 02:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-06 22:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-06 22:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-06 22:00