La escuela de los momios

FC Winterthur v FC Luzern

Inicio: 2026-05-16 16:00 UTC

Final: FC Winterthur 0–3 FC Luzern

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

FC Winterthur (Local)

Predicción 14.54%6.88momio equitativo
EV +1.78%
Ventaja +0.255%
Kelly +0.297%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.17%14.63%14.46%16.34%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.506.256.407.0018.18%16.00%15.63%14.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

FC Luzern (Visitante)

Predicción 68.33%1.46momio equitativo
EV -5.02%
Ventaja -3.61%
Kelly -12.88%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.39

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
65.92%68.24%68.38%70.37%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.291.361.361.3977.52%73.69%73.53%71.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 17.13%5.84momio equitativo
EV -1.50%
Ventaja -0.261%
Kelly -0.317%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.00%17.13%17.17%19.79%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.335.195.155.7523.09%19.26%19.42%17.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
FanDuel7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +1.78%E +0.255%K +0.297%G +0.005%1.31I 76.34%NM 70.37%EV -10.49%E -8.01%K -33.83%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.46%EV -4.07%E -0.727%K -0.885%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-16 15:54
LowVig.ag6.80I 14.71%NM 13.89%EV -1.13%E -0.166%K -0.194%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.94%EV -6.39%E -4.66%K -17.27%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.79%E -1.05%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-16 15:50
BetOnline.ag6.80I 14.71%NM 13.89%EV -1.13%E -0.166%K -0.194%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.94%EV -6.39%E -4.66%K -17.27%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.79%E -1.05%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-16 15:50
BetUS6.80I 14.71%NM 13.89%EV -1.13%E -0.166%K -0.194%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.94%EV -6.39%E -4.66%K -17.27%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.79%E -1.05%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-16 15:54
BetAnything6.80I 14.71%NM 13.89%EV -1.13%E -0.166%K -0.194%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.94%EV -6.39%E -4.66%K -17.27%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.79%E -1.05%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-16 15:50
Coolbet6.75I 14.81%NM 14.15%EV -1.85%E -0.274%K -0.322%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.23%EV -5.70%E -4.13%K -15.01%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.62%EV -1.50%E -0.261%K -0.317%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-16 15:30
Pinnacle6.66I 15.02%NM 14.22%EV -3.16%E -0.475%K -0.559%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.14%EV -5.02%E -3.61%K -12.88%G +0.000%5.37I 18.62%NM 17.64%EV -8.01%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 15:55
Marathon Bet6.65I 15.04%NM 14.02%EV -3.31%E -0.497%K -0.585%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -7.07%E -5.20%K -19.64%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.43%EV -8.36%E -1.56%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 15:50
DraftKings6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -5.49%E -0.844%K -0.998%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.34%EV -5.70%E -4.13%K -15.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -5.79%E -1.05%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 15:35
Betway6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -5.49%E -0.844%K -0.998%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.34%EV -5.70%E -4.13%K -15.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -5.79%E -1.05%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 15:50
Unibet (UK)6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -5.49%E -0.844%K -0.998%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.33%EV -7.75%E -5.74%K -22.16%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.28%EV -1.50%E -0.261%K -0.317%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 15:55
PointsBet (AU)6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -5.49%E -0.844%K -0.998%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.82%EV -7.75%E -5.74%K -22.16%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -5.79%E -1.05%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 15:30
Bet Right6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -5.49%E -0.844%K -0.998%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.27%EV -7.75%E -5.74%K -22.16%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -10.07%E -1.92%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-16 15:30
betfred_uk6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -5.49%E -0.844%K -0.998%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.14%EV -9.12%E -6.86%K -27.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -5.79%E -1.05%K -1.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 15:30
Bet Victor6.50I 15.38%NM 14.03%EV -5.49%E -0.844%K -0.998%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.59%EV -9.12%E -6.86%K -27.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.38%EV -10.07%E -1.92%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-16 15:34
PlayUp6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -5.49%E -0.844%K -0.998%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -7.07%E -5.20%K -19.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -21.20%E -4.61%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-16 15:35
SportsBet6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -5.49%E -0.844%K -0.998%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.49%EV -11.17%E -8.59%K -37.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -14.35%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-16 15:55
Paddy Power6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -5.49%E -0.844%K -0.998%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.49%EV -11.17%E -8.59%K -37.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -14.35%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-16 15:10
1xBet6.44I 15.53%NM 14.53%EV -6.36%E -0.988%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.30%EV -6.39%E -4.66%K -17.27%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.17%EV -6.64%E -1.22%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 15:50
Unibet6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -6.94%E -1.08%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.04%EV -5.70%E -4.13%K -15.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -14.35%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 15:10
Casumo6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -6.94%E -1.08%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.04%EV -5.70%E -4.13%K -15.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -14.35%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 15:10
Unibet (SE)6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -6.94%E -1.08%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.04%EV -5.70%E -4.13%K -15.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -14.35%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 15:10
BetRivers6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -6.94%E -1.08%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.04%EV -5.70%E -4.13%K -15.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -14.35%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 15:10
TABtouch6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -6.94%E -1.08%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.04%EV -5.70%E -4.13%K -15.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -14.35%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 15:10
Virgin Bet6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -6.94%E -1.08%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.04%EV -5.70%E -4.13%K -15.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -14.35%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 15:10
Unibet (NL)6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -6.94%E -1.08%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.04%EV -5.70%E -4.13%K -15.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -14.35%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 15:10
Grosvenor6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -6.94%E -1.08%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.04%EV -5.70%E -4.13%K -15.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -14.35%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 15:10
Svenska Spel6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -6.94%E -1.08%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.04%EV -5.70%E -4.13%K -15.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -14.35%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 15:10
betPARX6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -6.94%E -1.08%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.04%EV -5.70%E -4.13%K -15.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -14.35%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 15:10
ATG (SE)6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -6.94%E -1.08%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.04%EV -5.70%E -4.13%K -15.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -14.35%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 15:10
GTbets6.33I 15.80%NM 14.78%EV -7.96%E -1.26%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.80%EV -5.70%E -4.13%K -15.01%G +0.000%5.37I 18.62%NM 17.42%EV -8.01%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 15:10
Bovada6.25I 16.00%NM 14.69%EV -9.12%E -1.46%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.49%EV -7.07%E -5.20%K -19.64%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.82%EV -11.78%E -2.29%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-16 15:50
Everygame6.25I 16.00%NM 14.61%EV -9.12%E -1.46%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.13%EV -7.07%E -5.20%K -19.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -14.35%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-16 15:55
Betr (AU)6.25I 16.00%NM 14.54%EV -9.12%E -1.46%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.29%EV -7.75%E -5.74%K -22.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -14.35%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-16 15:30
Sky Bet6.25I 16.00%NM 14.17%EV -9.12%E -1.46%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.12%EV -11.17%E -8.59%K -37.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.71%EV -14.35%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-16 15:55
LeoVegas (SE)6.10I 16.39%NM 15.00%EV -11.30%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.32%EV -5.70%E -4.13%K -15.01%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.68%EV -16.06%E -3.28%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-16 15:10
LeoVegas6.10I 16.39%NM 15.00%EV -11.30%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.32%EV -5.70%E -4.13%K -15.01%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.68%EV -16.06%E -3.28%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-16 15:10
LiveScore Bet6.10I 16.39%NM 14.93%EV -11.30%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.48%EV -6.39%E -4.66%K -17.27%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.59%EV -16.06%E -3.28%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-16 15:10
PMU (FR)6.10I 16.39%NM 14.86%EV -11.30%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.64%EV -7.07%E -5.20%K -19.64%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.50%EV -16.06%E -3.28%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-16 15:10
NetBet (FR)6.10I 16.39%NM 14.44%EV -11.30%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 68.29%EV -11.85%E -9.19%K -40.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.27%EV -12.64%E -2.48%K -3.08%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-16 15:55
BetMGM6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -12.76%E -2.13%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.34%EV -7.07%E -5.20%K -19.64%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.16%EV -1.50%E -0.261%K -0.317%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 15:10
Fanatics6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -12.76%E -2.13%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.85%EV -7.07%E -5.20%K -19.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -5.79%E -1.05%K -1.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 15:10
Betclic (FR)6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -12.76%E -2.13%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.47%EV -7.75%E -5.74%K -22.16%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.35%EV -10.07%E -1.92%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-16 15:52
888sport6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -12.76%E -2.13%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -7.07%E -5.20%K -19.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -14.35%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-16 15:10
William Hill6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -12.76%E -2.13%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -7.07%E -5.20%K -19.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -14.35%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-16 15:10
Mr Green (SE)6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -12.76%E -2.13%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -7.07%E -5.20%K -19.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -14.35%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-16 15:10
888sport (SE)6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -12.76%E -2.13%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -7.07%E -5.20%K -19.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -14.35%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-16 15:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)6.00I 16.67%NM 14.28%EV -12.76%E -2.13%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 65.92%EV -11.17%E -8.59%K -37.24%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.79%EV -25.83%E -5.96%K -7.76%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-16 15:55
Winamax (DE)5.90I 16.95%NM 15.45%EV -14.21%E -2.41%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.55%EV -9.12%E -6.86%K -27.64%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.00%EV -2.36%E -0.414%K -0.502%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-16 15:55
Betsson5.70I 17.54%NM 16.19%EV -17.12%E -3.00%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.40%EV -5.02%E -3.61%K -12.88%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.41%EV -9.21%E -1.74%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 15:55
NordicBet5.70I 17.54%NM 16.19%EV -17.12%E -3.00%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.40%EV -5.02%E -3.61%K -12.88%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.41%EV -9.21%E -1.74%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 15:55
Coral5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -20.03%E -3.64%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.55%EV -7.75%E -5.74%K -22.16%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -10.07%E -1.92%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-16 15:10
Ladbrokes (AU)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -20.03%E -3.64%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.55%EV -7.75%E -5.74%K -22.16%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -10.07%E -1.92%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-16 15:10
Ladbrokes (UK)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -20.03%E -3.64%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.55%EV -7.75%E -5.74%K -22.16%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -10.07%E -1.92%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-16 15:10
Neds5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -20.03%E -3.64%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.55%EV -7.75%E -5.74%K -22.16%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -10.07%E -1.92%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-16 15:10
Winamax (FR)5.50I 18.18%NM 15.95%EV -20.03%E -3.64%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 67.49%EV -11.17%E -8.59%K -37.24%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.55%EV -9.21%E -1.74%K -2.14%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-16 15:55
BoyleSports5.50I 18.18%NM 15.80%EV -20.03%E -3.64%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 66.83%EV -11.17%E -8.59%K -37.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.38%EV -14.35%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%15.1%2026-05-16 15:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)7.80I 12.82%NM 12.70%1.40I 71.43%NM 70.78%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.52%0.9%2026-05-16 15:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)7.80I 12.82%NM 12.70%1.40I 71.43%NM 70.78%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.52%0.9%2026-05-16 15:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)7.80I 12.82%NM 12.70%1.40I 71.43%NM 70.78%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.52%0.9%2026-05-16 15:50
Matchbook7.80I 12.82%NM 12.70%1.40I 71.43%NM 70.78%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.52%0.9%2026-05-16 15:50
Smarkets7.60I 13.16%NM 12.83%1.38I 72.46%NM 70.65%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.52%2.6%2026-05-16 15:50