L’École des cotes

FC Thun v FC Basel

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-18 18:30 UTC

Score final : FC Thun 3–1 FC Basel

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

55 opérateurs (16 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

FC Thun (Local)

Prévision 51.94%1.93cote équitable
EV -3.90%
Avantage -2.11%
Kelly -4.59%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
50.07%51.96%52.10%53.89%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.671.781.801.8559.88%56.17%55.56%54.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

FC Basel (Visiteur)

Prévision 24.99%4.00cote équitable
EV -0.024%
Avantage -0.006%
Kelly -0.008%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.54%25.01%24.83%26.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.303.643.604.0030.30%27.48%27.78%25.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 23.06%4.34cote équitable
EV -1.99%
Avantage -0.468%
Kelly -0.612%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.25

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
22.02%23.03%23.06%25.34%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.303.933.904.2530.30%25.45%25.64%23.53%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (55 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Codere (IT)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.25%EV -3.90%E -2.11%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -7.52%E -2.03%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.13%EV -5.45%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-18 18:15
Pinnacle1.84I 54.35%NM 52.53%EV -4.42%E -2.40%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.41%EV -1.02%E -0.259%K -0.346%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 23.07%EV -3.37%E -0.805%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-18 18:25
William Hill1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -4.94%E -2.70%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -12.37%E -3.25%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 18:15
GTbets1.82I 54.95%NM 51.74%EV -5.46%E -3.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.52%EV -7.77%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 22.74%EV -4.53%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-18 18:20
NordicBet1.82I 54.95%NM 50.86%EV -5.46%E -3.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.43%EV -8.91%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-18 18:15
Betsson1.82I 54.95%NM 50.86%EV -5.46%E -3.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.43%EV -8.91%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-18 18:15
LeoVegas1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -5.46%E -3.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -11.21%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 18:00
Grosvenor1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -5.46%E -3.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -11.21%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 18:01
LeoVegas (SE)1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -5.46%E -3.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -11.21%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 18:01
Unibet (NL)1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -5.46%E -3.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -11.21%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 18:00
Virgin Bet1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -5.46%E -3.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -11.21%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 18:00
Unibet (SE)1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -5.46%E -3.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -11.21%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 18:00
Casumo1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -5.46%E -3.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -11.21%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 18:00
Unibet1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -5.46%E -3.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -11.21%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 18:00
ATG (SE)1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -5.46%E -3.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -11.21%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 18:00
Svenska Spel1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -5.46%E -3.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -11.21%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 18:00
betPARX1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -5.46%E -3.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -11.21%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 18:01
BetRivers1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -5.46%E -3.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -11.21%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 18:00
TABtouch1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -5.46%E -3.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -11.21%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 18:00
DraftKings1.80I 55.56%NM 52.28%EV -6.50%E -3.61%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -5.02%E -1.32%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -5.45%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 18:23
PointsBet (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -6.50%E -3.61%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -1.99%E -0.468%K -0.612%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-18 18:05
Betway1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -6.50%E -3.61%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -6.27%E -1.67%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -7.76%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-18 18:25
betfred_uk1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -6.50%E -3.61%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -7.76%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-18 18:05
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -6.50%E -3.61%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -7.52%E -2.03%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -12.37%E -3.25%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-18 18:25
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -6.50%E -3.61%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -7.52%E -2.03%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -12.37%E -3.25%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-18 18:25
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -6.50%E -3.61%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -7.52%E -2.03%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -12.37%E -3.25%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-18 18:25
PMU (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.64%EV -6.50%E -3.61%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -11.27%E -3.18%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.68%EV -11.21%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-18 18:00
LiveScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 50.64%EV -6.50%E -3.61%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -11.27%E -3.18%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.68%EV -11.21%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-18 18:01
Everygame1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -6.50%E -3.61%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -13.52%E -3.61%K -4.92%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-18 18:20
Bet Right1.78I 56.18%NM 51.56%EV -7.54%E -4.23%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -7.76%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-18 18:05
Winamax (DE)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.00%EV -7.54%E -4.23%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -13.77%E -3.99%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%EV -7.76%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-18 18:15
Betr (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 50.89%EV -7.54%E -4.23%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -12.52%E -3.58%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.23%EV -10.06%E -2.58%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-18 18:05
FanDuel1.77I 56.50%NM 52.64%EV -8.06%E -4.55%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -7.52%E -2.03%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -3.14%E -0.748%K -0.982%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-18 18:25
BetMGM1.77I 56.50%NM 52.53%EV -8.06%E -4.55%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -6.27%E -1.67%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -5.45%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-18 17:15
BetOnline.ag1.76I 56.82%NM 53.50%EV -8.58%E -4.87%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -0.024%E -0.006%K -0.008%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -5.45%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-18 18:25
LowVig.ag1.76I 56.82%NM 53.50%EV -8.58%E -4.87%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -0.024%E -0.006%K -0.008%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -5.45%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-18 18:25
BetAnything1.76I 56.82%NM 53.50%EV -8.58%E -4.87%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -0.024%E -0.006%K -0.008%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -5.45%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-18 18:25
Marathon Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -8.58%E -4.87%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.68%EV -1.52%E -0.387%K -0.518%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -7.76%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-18 18:25
1xBet1.75I 57.14%NM 53.38%EV -9.10%E -5.20%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 23.89%EV -2.27%E -0.581%K -0.781%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 22.73%EV -5.22%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-18 18:24
Tipico (DE)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -9.10%E -5.20%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.02%E -1.32%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -3.14%E -0.748%K -0.982%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-18 18:25
SportsBet1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -9.10%E -5.20%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -7.76%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-18 18:25
PlayUp1.75I 57.14%NM 51.71%EV -9.10%E -5.20%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -8.77%E -2.40%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.50%EV -11.21%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-18 18:25
Betclic (FR)1.75I 57.14%NM 51.03%EV -9.10%E -5.20%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.66%EV -13.02%E -3.74%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.31%EV -11.68%E -3.05%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-18 18:15
Winamax (FR)1.74I 57.47%NM 50.52%EV -9.62%E -5.53%K -12.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -17.52%E -5.31%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.83%EV -11.21%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-18 18:15
Coral1.73I 57.80%NM 51.97%EV -10.14%E -5.86%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.98%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%EV -10.06%E -2.58%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-18 17:15
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 51.97%EV -10.14%E -5.86%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.98%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%EV -10.06%E -2.58%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-18 17:15
Neds1.73I 57.80%NM 51.97%EV -10.14%E -5.86%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.98%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%EV -10.06%E -2.58%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-18 17:15
Ladbrokes (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 51.97%EV -10.14%E -5.86%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.98%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%EV -10.06%E -2.58%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-18 17:15
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 51.90%EV -10.14%E -5.86%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -12.52%E -3.58%K -5.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -7.76%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-18 18:25
Unibet (FR)1.73I 57.80%NM 51.60%EV -10.14%E -5.86%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -12.52%E -3.58%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.89%EV -10.06%E -2.58%K -3.47%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-18 18:15
Sky Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 51.22%EV -10.14%E -5.86%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -15.02%E -4.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.72%EV -10.06%E -2.58%K -3.47%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-18 18:25
BetUS1.71I 58.48%NM 53.89%EV -11.17%E -6.53%K -15.74%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -2.52%E -0.647%K -0.870%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -5.45%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-18 18:25
BoyleSports1.70I 58.82%NM 50.80%EV -11.69%E -6.88%K -16.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.17%EV -17.52%E -5.31%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.03%EV -13.52%E -3.61%K -4.92%G +0.000%15.8%2026-04-18 18:05
NetBet (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 52.54%EV -13.25%E -7.94%K -19.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.37%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -12.37%E -3.25%K -4.42%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-18 18:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 50.07%EV -13.25%E -7.94%K -19.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.59%EV -15.02%E -4.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.34%EV -23.90%E -7.24%K -10.39%G +0.000%19.6%2026-04-18 18:25
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.87I 53.48%NM 52.84%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.46%1.2%2026-04-18 18:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.87I 53.48%NM 52.84%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.46%1.2%2026-04-18 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.87I 53.48%NM 52.84%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.46%1.2%2026-04-18 18:25
Smarkets1.85I 54.05%NM 53.11%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.56%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.33%1.8%2026-04-18 18:25
Matchbook1.85I 54.05%NM 53.11%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.56%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.33%1.8%2026-04-18 18:25