Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Sion v FC Lugano

Kickoff: 2026-05-14 14:30 UTC

Final: FC Sion 2–2 FC Lugano

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Sion (Local)

Prediction 45.86%2.18fair odd
EV -5.99%
Edge -2.92%
Kelly -5.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.39%45.95%45.81%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.002.002.0552.36%49.98%50.00%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Lugano (Visit)

Prediction 26.58%3.76fair odd
EV +2.58%
Edge +0.669%
Kelly +0.902%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 3.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.98%26.53%26.56%27.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.443.403.8632.26%29.11%29.41%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.57%3.63fair odd
EV -3.52%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.56%27.52%27.62%28.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.343.353.5033.33%29.90%29.85%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Sion (Local): 45.86%; FC Lugano (Visit): 26.58%; Draw: 27.57%. For FC Lugano (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.76. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.86, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.58%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.17%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.05%EV +2.58%E +0.669%K +0.902%G +0.023%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.78%EV -4.07%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-14 14:16
BetOnline.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.07%EV -8.74%E -4.39%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.98%EV -0.342%E -0.091%K -0.125%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -7.66%E -2.29%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-14 14:21
LowVig.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.07%EV -8.74%E -4.39%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.98%EV -0.342%E -0.091%K -0.125%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -7.66%E -2.29%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-14 14:16
GTbets🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -6.90%E -3.40%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.70%EV -1.94%E -0.525%K -0.720%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.57%EV -5.18%E -1.50%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 14:20
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.96%EV -8.74%E -4.39%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.39%EV -2.20%E -0.599%K -0.822%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.65%EV -6.83%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-14 14:20
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.33%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -6.28%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-14 14:15
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.84%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.33%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.66%E -2.29%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-14 14:10
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -4.33%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-14 14:20
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -4.33%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -10.41%E -3.20%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-14 14:25
BetUS🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -4.33%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -10.41%E -3.20%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-14 14:25
BetAnything🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -4.33%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -10.41%E -3.20%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-14 14:26
Everygame🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -10.57%E -5.42%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -4.33%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -10.41%E -3.20%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-14 14:16
Marathon Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.04%EV -4.86%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -7.66%E -2.29%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-14 14:26
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.99%E -2.00%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-14 14:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -6.99%E -2.00%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -7.66%E -2.29%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-14 14:10
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -6.99%E -2.00%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-14 14:10
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -10.57%E -5.42%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -6.99%E -2.00%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -10.41%E -3.20%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-14 14:10
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.82%EV -8.32%E -2.41%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-14 14:10
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.82%EV -8.32%E -2.41%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-14 14:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.62%EV -9.11%E -2.66%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.85%EV -9.86%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-14 14:15
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:05
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:05
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:06
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:05
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:06
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -6.28%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-14 14:01
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.13%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -4.90%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-14 14:05
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.28%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-14 14:26
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -10.57%E -5.42%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -6.28%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-14 14:23
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -10.57%E -5.42%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -11.79%E -3.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-14 14:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -10.57%E -5.42%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -11.79%E -3.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-14 14:21
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -10.57%E -5.42%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -11.79%E -3.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-14 14:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -10.57%E -5.42%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -11.79%E -3.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-14 14:21
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -10.57%E -5.42%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -14.55%E -4.69%K -6.93%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-14 14:10
LeoVegas🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.94%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -10.97%E -3.28%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -4.90%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-14 14:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.94%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -10.97%E -3.28%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -4.90%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-14 14:05
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.76%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.32%EV -10.97%E -3.28%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -6.28%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-14 14:16
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.58%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -10.97%E -3.28%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -7.66%E -2.29%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-14 14:10
PlayUp🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.76%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.99%EV -10.97%E -3.28%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -11.79%E -3.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-14 14:21
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -10.97%E -3.28%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -11.79%E -3.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-14 14:10
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -6.28%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-14 14:01
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-14 14:16
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-14 14:21
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-14 14:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-14 14:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.95%EV -9.66%E -4.90%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -6.28%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-14 14:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-14 14:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.07%EV -10.12%E -5.16%K -10.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -6.28%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-14 14:05
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.16%EV -12.41%E -6.50%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.72%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -10.41%E -3.20%K -4.63%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-14 14:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.83%EV -11.95%E -6.22%K -12.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.50%EV -11.79%E -3.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-14 14:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.20%EV -11.03%E -5.69%K -11.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.40%EV -14.96%E -4.67%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.40%EV -11.79%E -3.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-14 14:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 44.39%EV -12.41%E -6.50%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.35%EV -17.62%E -5.68%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.26%EV -17.30%E -5.77%K -8.65%G +0.000%17.9%2026-05-14 14:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.14I 46.73%NM 46.33%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.93%0.9%2026-05-14 14:26
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.17%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.83%1.2%2026-05-14 14:26
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.17%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.83%1.2%2026-05-14 14:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.58%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.99%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.43%1.3%2026-05-14 14:26
Smarkets2.10I 47.62%NM 46.64%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.77%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.59%2.1%2026-05-14 14:26