La escuela de los momios

FC Sion v FC Lugano

Inicio: 2026-05-14 14:30 UTC

Final: FC Sion 2–2 FC Lugano

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

FC Sion (Local)

Predicción 45.86%2.18momio equitativo
EV -5.99%
Ventaja -2.92%
Kelly -5.70%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.39%45.95%45.81%47.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.912.002.002.0552.36%49.98%50.00%48.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

FC Lugano (Visitante)

Predicción 26.58%3.76momio equitativo
EV +2.58%
Ventaja +0.669%
Kelly +0.902%
Crecimiento +0.023%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.86

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.98%26.53%26.56%27.93%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.443.403.8632.26%29.11%29.41%25.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.57%3.63momio equitativo
EV -3.52%
Ventaja -1.01%
Kelly -1.41%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.56%27.52%27.62%28.56%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.343.353.5033.33%29.90%29.85%28.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.05I 48.78%NM 47.17%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.05%EV +2.58%E +0.669%K +0.902%G +0.023%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.78%EV -4.07%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-14 14:16
BetOnline.ag1.99I 50.25%NM 47.07%EV -8.74%E -4.39%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.98%EV -0.342%E -0.091%K -0.125%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -7.66%E -2.29%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-14 14:21
LowVig.ag1.99I 50.25%NM 47.07%EV -8.74%E -4.39%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.98%EV -0.342%E -0.091%K -0.125%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -7.66%E -2.29%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-14 14:16
GTbets2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -6.90%E -3.40%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.70%EV -1.94%E -0.525%K -0.720%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.57%EV -5.18%E -1.50%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 14:20
1xBet1.99I 50.25%NM 46.96%EV -8.74%E -4.39%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.39%EV -2.20%E -0.599%K -0.822%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.65%EV -6.83%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-14 14:20
FanDuel2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.33%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -6.28%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-14 14:15
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 45.84%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.33%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.66%E -2.29%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-14 14:10
BetMGM2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -4.33%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-14 14:20
Bovada2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -4.33%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -10.41%E -3.20%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-14 14:25
BetUS2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -4.33%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -10.41%E -3.20%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-14 14:25
BetAnything2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -4.33%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -10.41%E -3.20%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-14 14:26
Everygame1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -10.57%E -5.42%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -4.33%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -10.41%E -3.20%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-14 14:16
Marathon Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.04%EV -4.86%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -7.66%E -2.29%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-14 14:26
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.99%E -2.00%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-14 14:20
Unibet (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -6.99%E -2.00%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -7.66%E -2.29%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-14 14:10
SportsBet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -6.99%E -2.00%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-14 14:10
Paddy Power1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -10.57%E -5.42%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -6.99%E -2.00%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -10.41%E -3.20%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-14 14:10
NordicBet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.82%EV -8.32%E -2.41%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-14 14:10
Betsson2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.82%EV -8.32%E -2.41%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-14 14:10
Betclic (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.62%EV -9.11%E -2.66%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.85%EV -9.86%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-14 14:15
Unibet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:05
Unibet (NL)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:05
Virgin Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:05
Casumo2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:05
Unibet (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:05
TABtouch2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:06
Grosvenor2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:05
Svenska Spel2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:05
betPARX2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:05
ATG (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:06
PointsBet (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -6.28%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-14 14:01
BetRivers2.00I 50.00%NM 46.13%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -4.90%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-14 14:05
Fanatics2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.28%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-14 14:26
Bet Victor1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -10.57%E -5.42%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -6.28%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-14 14:23
Neds1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -10.57%E -5.42%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -11.79%E -3.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-14 14:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -10.57%E -5.42%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -11.79%E -3.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-14 14:21
Coral1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -10.57%E -5.42%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -11.79%E -3.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-14 14:20
Ladbrokes (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -10.57%E -5.42%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -11.79%E -3.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-14 14:21
Sky Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -10.57%E -5.42%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -9.64%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -14.55%E -4.69%K -6.93%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-14 14:10
LeoVegas2.00I 50.00%NM 45.94%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -10.97%E -3.28%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -4.90%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-14 14:05
LeoVegas (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.94%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -10.97%E -3.28%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -4.90%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-14 14:05
Bet Right2.00I 50.00%NM 45.76%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.32%EV -10.97%E -3.28%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -6.28%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-14 14:16
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.58%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -10.97%E -3.28%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -7.66%E -2.29%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-14 14:10
PlayUp2.02I 49.50%NM 44.76%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.99%EV -10.97%E -3.28%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -11.79%E -3.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-14 14:21
Unibet (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -10.97%E -3.28%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -11.79%E -3.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-14 14:10
betfred_uk2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -6.28%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-14 14:01
888sport2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-14 14:16
William Hill2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-14 14:21
888sport (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-14 14:15
Mr Green (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-14 14:15
LiveScore Bet1.97I 50.76%NM 45.95%EV -9.66%E -4.90%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -6.28%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-14 14:05
Betr (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-14 14:00
PMU (FR)1.96I 51.02%NM 46.07%EV -10.12%E -5.16%K -10.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -6.28%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-14 14:05
BoyleSports1.91I 52.36%NM 46.16%EV -12.41%E -6.50%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.72%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -10.41%E -3.20%K -4.63%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-14 14:15
NetBet (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 45.83%EV -11.95%E -6.22%K -12.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.50%EV -11.79%E -3.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-14 14:25
Winamax (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 45.20%EV -11.03%E -5.69%K -11.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.40%EV -14.96%E -4.67%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.40%EV -11.79%E -3.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-14 14:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 44.39%EV -12.41%E -6.50%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.35%EV -17.62%E -5.68%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.26%EV -17.30%E -5.77%K -8.65%G +0.000%17.9%2026-05-14 14:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.14I 46.73%NM 46.33%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.93%0.9%2026-05-14 14:26
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.17%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.83%1.2%2026-05-14 14:26
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.17%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.83%1.2%2026-05-14 14:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.58%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.99%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.43%1.3%2026-05-14 14:26
Smarkets2.10I 47.62%NM 46.64%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.77%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.59%2.1%2026-05-14 14:26