Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Lugano v FC Thun

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Lugano (Local)

Prediction 37.14%2.69fair odd
EV -1.94%
Edge -0.737%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.17%37.05%37.13%38.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.492.502.6443.48%40.17%40.00%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Thun (Visit)

Prediction 36.89%2.71fair odd
EV -1.15%
Edge -0.428%
Kelly -0.683%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.75%36.99%36.86%38.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.482.452.6843.48%40.38%40.82%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.97%3.85fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -0.694%
Kelly -0.946%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.00%25.96%26.01%28.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.503.503.7533.33%28.55%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Lugano (Local): 37.14%; FC Thun (Visit): 36.89%; Draw: 25.97%. For FC Thun (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.71. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.68, with an expected value of -1.15%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.79%EV -1.94%E -0.737%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.24%EV -1.15%E -0.428%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 15:39
BetOnline.ag🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.79%EV -1.94%E -0.737%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.24%EV -1.15%E -0.428%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 15:40
Pinnacle🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.84%EV -2.32%E -0.881%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.84%EV -2.99%E -1.14%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.33%EV -4.42%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-04 15:40
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.23%EV -2.69%E -1.03%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.78%EV -12.21%E -5.13%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 08:05
GTbets🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.71%EV -4.54%E -1.77%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.15%EV -6.31%E -2.49%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.14%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 07:05
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.32%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.60%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.07%EV -5.20%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 15:40
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -2.60%E -0.694%K -0.946%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 15:39
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.06%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.06%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -5.20%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-04 15:40
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 15:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.92%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -10.39%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-02 05:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.92%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -10.39%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-01 00:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.60%E -0.694%K -0.946%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 15:40
1xBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 15:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 15:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.60%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.07%EV -7.02%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 14:44
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 07:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.09%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -3.90%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 15:40
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 15:40
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 15:40
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.59%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 15:39
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 14:49
Everygame🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 15:39
NordicBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.28%EV -7.89%E -3.18%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.68%EV -7.05%E -2.80%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 15:40
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 15:39
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 14:44
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 14:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 14:45
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 14:45
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 15:49
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.79%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 15:40
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-04 15:40
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 15:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.79%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 15:39
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-04 07:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-04 07:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-04 07:05
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-04 07:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.17%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.70%EV -15.16%E -6.59%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.13%EV -22.08%E -7.36%K -11.04%G +0.000%18.5%2026-04-04 15:49
BetUS🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.84%EV -11.60%E -4.87%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.75%EV -1.89%E -0.709%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 12:27
BetAnything🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.84%EV -11.60%E -4.87%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.75%EV -1.89%E -0.709%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 12:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.67%EV -11.97%E -5.05%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.44%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -10.39%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 15:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.30%EV -12.72%E -5.41%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.30%EV -13.32%E -5.67%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.41%EV -10.39%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-04 15:39
NetBet (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.72%EV -13.83%E -5.96%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 36.16%EV -10.74%E -4.44%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.12%EV -12.99%E -3.88%K -5.53%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-04 14:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -14.57%E -6.34%K -11.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 15:39
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.84%EV -14.57%E -6.34%K -11.21%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.57%EV -12.21%E -5.13%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.60%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-04 14:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%0.9%2026-04-04 15:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.86%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.14%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%1.2%2026-04-04 15:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.86%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.14%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%1.2%2026-04-04 15:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.86%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.14%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%1.2%2026-04-04 15:50
Smarkets2.64I 37.88%NM 37.09%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.81%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.11%2.1%2026-04-04 15:50