La escuela de los momios

FC Lugano v FC Thun

Inicio: 2026-04-04 16:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

FC Lugano (Local)

Predicción 37.14%2.69momio equitativo
EV -1.94%
Ventaja -0.737%
Kelly -1.19%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.64

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.17%37.05%37.13%38.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.302.492.502.6443.48%40.17%40.00%37.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

FC Thun (Visitante)

Predicción 36.89%2.71momio equitativo
EV -1.15%
Ventaja -0.428%
Kelly -0.683%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.68

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.75%36.99%36.86%38.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.302.482.452.6843.48%40.38%40.82%37.31%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.97%3.85momio equitativo
EV -2.60%
Ventaja -0.694%
Kelly -0.946%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.00%25.96%26.01%28.13%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.503.503.7533.33%28.55%28.57%26.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
LowVig.ag2.64I 37.88%NM 36.79%EV -1.94%E -0.737%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.24%EV -1.15%E -0.428%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 15:39
BetOnline.ag2.64I 37.88%NM 36.79%EV -1.94%E -0.737%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.24%EV -1.15%E -0.428%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 15:40
Pinnacle2.63I 38.02%NM 36.84%EV -2.32%E -0.881%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.84%EV -2.99%E -1.14%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.33%EV -4.42%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-04 15:40
Betsson2.62I 38.17%NM 35.23%EV -2.69%E -1.03%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.78%EV -12.21%E -5.13%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 08:05
GTbets2.57I 38.91%NM 36.71%EV -4.54%E -1.77%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.15%EV -6.31%E -2.49%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.14%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 07:05
DraftKings2.55I 39.22%NM 37.32%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.60%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.07%EV -5.20%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 15:40
Coolbet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -2.60%E -0.694%K -0.946%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 15:39
Codere (IT)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.06%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.06%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -5.20%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-04 15:40
FanDuel2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 15:39
LeoVegas (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
LeoVegas2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
Grosvenor2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
Unibet (NL)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
Unibet (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
Casumo2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
Virgin Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
Unibet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
BetRivers2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
TABtouch2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
Svenska Spel2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
ATG (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
betPARX2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
PMU (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.92%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -10.39%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-02 05:30
LiveScore Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.92%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -10.39%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-01 00:05
Unibet (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.60%E -0.694%K -0.946%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 15:40
1xBet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 15:49
Tipico (DE)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 15:40
Marathon Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.60%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.07%EV -7.02%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 14:44
BetMGM2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 07:05
PointsBet (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.09%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -3.90%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 15:40
SportsBet2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 15:40
Fanatics2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 15:40
Bet Right2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.59%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 15:39
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 14:49
Everygame2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 15:39
NordicBet2.48I 40.32%NM 37.28%EV -7.89%E -3.18%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.68%EV -7.05%E -2.80%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 15:40
Bet Victor2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 15:39
888sport2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 14:44
888sport (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 14:44
Mr Green (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 14:45
William Hill2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 14:45
PlayUp2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 15:49
Betr (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.79%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 15:40
Paddy Power2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-04 15:40
Sky Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 15:40
Winamax (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.79%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 15:39
Neds2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-04 07:04
Ladbrokes (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-04 07:05
Ladbrokes (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-04 07:05
Coral2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-04 07:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 35.17%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.70%EV -15.16%E -6.59%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.13%EV -22.08%E -7.36%K -11.04%G +0.000%18.5%2026-04-04 15:49
BetUS2.38I 42.02%NM 38.84%EV -11.60%E -4.87%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.75%EV -1.89%E -0.709%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 12:27
BetAnything2.38I 42.02%NM 38.84%EV -11.60%E -4.87%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.75%EV -1.89%E -0.709%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 12:30
Betclic (FR)2.37I 42.19%NM 37.67%EV -11.97%E -5.05%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.44%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -10.39%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 15:39
Winamax (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.30%EV -12.72%E -5.41%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.30%EV -13.32%E -5.67%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.41%EV -10.39%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-04 15:39
NetBet (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 37.72%EV -13.83%E -5.96%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 36.16%EV -10.74%E -4.44%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.12%EV -12.99%E -3.88%K -5.53%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-04 14:49
Unibet (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -14.57%E -6.34%K -11.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 15:39
BoyleSports2.30I 43.48%NM 37.84%EV -14.57%E -6.34%K -11.21%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.57%EV -12.21%E -5.13%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.60%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-04 14:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%0.9%2026-04-04 15:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.86%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.14%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%1.2%2026-04-04 15:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.86%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.14%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%1.2%2026-04-04 15:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.86%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.14%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%1.2%2026-04-04 15:50
Smarkets2.64I 37.88%NM 37.09%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.81%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.11%2.1%2026-04-04 15:50