L’École des cotes

FC Lugano v FC Thun

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-04 16:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

FC Lugano (Local)

Prévision 37.14%2.69cote équitable
EV -1.94%
Avantage -0.737%
Kelly -1.19%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.64

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.17%37.05%37.13%38.84%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.302.492.502.6443.48%40.17%40.00%37.88%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

FC Thun (Visiteur)

Prévision 36.89%2.71cote équitable
EV -1.15%
Avantage -0.428%
Kelly -0.683%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.68

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
34.75%36.99%36.86%38.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.302.482.452.6843.48%40.38%40.82%37.31%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.97%3.85cote équitable
EV -2.60%
Avantage -0.694%
Kelly -0.946%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.00%25.96%26.01%28.13%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.503.503.7533.33%28.55%28.57%26.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
LowVig.ag2.64I 37.88%NM 36.79%EV -1.94%E -0.737%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.24%EV -1.15%E -0.428%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 15:39
BetOnline.ag2.64I 37.88%NM 36.79%EV -1.94%E -0.737%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.24%EV -1.15%E -0.428%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 15:40
Pinnacle2.63I 38.02%NM 36.84%EV -2.32%E -0.881%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.84%EV -2.99%E -1.14%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.33%EV -4.42%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-04 15:40
Betsson2.62I 38.17%NM 35.23%EV -2.69%E -1.03%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.78%EV -12.21%E -5.13%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 08:05
GTbets2.57I 38.91%NM 36.71%EV -4.54%E -1.77%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.15%EV -6.31%E -2.49%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.14%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 07:05
DraftKings2.55I 39.22%NM 37.32%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.60%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.07%EV -5.20%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 15:40
Coolbet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -2.60%E -0.694%K -0.946%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 15:39
Codere (IT)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.06%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.06%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -5.20%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-04 15:40
FanDuel2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 15:39
LeoVegas (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
LeoVegas2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
Grosvenor2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
Unibet (NL)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
Unibet (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
Casumo2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
Virgin Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
Unibet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
BetRivers2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
TABtouch2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
Svenska Spel2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
ATG (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
betPARX2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
PMU (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.92%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -10.39%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-02 05:30
LiveScore Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.92%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -10.39%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-01 00:05
Unibet (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.60%E -0.694%K -0.946%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 15:40
1xBet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 15:49
Tipico (DE)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 15:40
Marathon Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.60%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.07%EV -7.02%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 14:44
BetMGM2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 07:05
PointsBet (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.09%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -3.90%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 15:40
SportsBet2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 15:40
Fanatics2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 15:40
Bet Right2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.59%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 15:39
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 14:49
Everygame2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 15:39
NordicBet2.48I 40.32%NM 37.28%EV -7.89%E -3.18%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.68%EV -7.05%E -2.80%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 15:40
Bet Victor2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 15:39
888sport2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 14:44
888sport (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 14:44
Mr Green (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 14:45
William Hill2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 14:45
PlayUp2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 15:49
Betr (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.79%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 15:40
Paddy Power2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-04 15:40
Sky Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 15:40
Winamax (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.79%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 15:39
Neds2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-04 07:04
Ladbrokes (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-04 07:05
Ladbrokes (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-04 07:05
Coral2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-04 07:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 35.17%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.70%EV -15.16%E -6.59%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.13%EV -22.08%E -7.36%K -11.04%G +0.000%18.5%2026-04-04 15:49
BetUS2.38I 42.02%NM 38.84%EV -11.60%E -4.87%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.75%EV -1.89%E -0.709%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 12:27
BetAnything2.38I 42.02%NM 38.84%EV -11.60%E -4.87%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.75%EV -1.89%E -0.709%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 12:30
Betclic (FR)2.37I 42.19%NM 37.67%EV -11.97%E -5.05%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.44%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -10.39%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 15:39
Winamax (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.30%EV -12.72%E -5.41%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.30%EV -13.32%E -5.67%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.41%EV -10.39%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-04 15:39
NetBet (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 37.72%EV -13.83%E -5.96%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 36.16%EV -10.74%E -4.44%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.12%EV -12.99%E -3.88%K -5.53%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-04 14:49
Unibet (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -14.57%E -6.34%K -11.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 15:39
BoyleSports2.30I 43.48%NM 37.84%EV -14.57%E -6.34%K -11.21%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.57%EV -12.21%E -5.13%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.60%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-04 14:45
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%0.9%2026-04-04 15:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.86%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.14%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%1.2%2026-04-04 15:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.86%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.14%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%1.2%2026-04-04 15:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.86%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.14%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%1.2%2026-04-04 15:50
Smarkets2.64I 37.88%NM 37.09%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.81%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.11%2.1%2026-04-04 15:50