La scuola delle quote

FC Lugano v FC Thun

Inizio: 2026-04-04 16:00 UTC

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

Testa a testa

58 bookmaker (21 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: IQM

FC Lugano (Casa)

Previsione 37.14%2.69quota equa
EV -1.94%
Vantaggio -0.737%
Kelly -1.19%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 2.64

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
35.17%37.05%37.13%38.84%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
2.302.492.502.6443.48%40.17%40.00%37.88%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

FC Thun (Trasferta)

Previsione 36.89%2.71quota equa
EV -1.15%
Vantaggio -0.428%
Kelly -0.683%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 2.68

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
34.75%36.99%36.86%38.78%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
2.302.482.452.6843.48%40.38%40.82%37.31%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Pareggio

Previsione 25.97%3.85quota equa
EV -2.60%
Vantaggio -0.694%
Kelly -0.946%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 3.75

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
25.00%25.96%26.01%28.13%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
3.003.503.503.7533.33%28.55%28.57%26.67%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Quote dei bookmaker (58 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasa ▼TrasfertaPareggioMargineAggiornamento
LowVig.ag2.64I 37.88%NM 36.79%EV -1.94%E -0.737%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.24%EV -1.15%E -0.428%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 15:39
BetOnline.ag2.64I 37.88%NM 36.79%EV -1.94%E -0.737%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.24%EV -1.15%E -0.428%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 15:40
Pinnacle2.63I 38.02%NM 36.84%EV -2.32%E -0.881%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.84%EV -2.99%E -1.14%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.33%EV -4.42%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-04 15:40
Betsson2.62I 38.17%NM 35.23%EV -2.69%E -1.03%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.78%EV -12.21%E -5.13%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 08:05
GTbets2.57I 38.91%NM 36.71%EV -4.54%E -1.77%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.15%EV -6.31%E -2.49%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.14%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 07:05
DraftKings2.55I 39.22%NM 37.32%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.60%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.07%EV -5.20%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 15:40
Coolbet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -2.60%E -0.694%K -0.946%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 15:39
Codere (IT)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.06%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.06%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -5.20%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-04 15:40
FanDuel2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 15:39
LeoVegas (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
LeoVegas2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
Grosvenor2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
Unibet (NL)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
Unibet (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
Casumo2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
Virgin Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
Unibet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
BetRivers2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
TABtouch2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
Svenska Spel2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:04
ATG (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
betPARX2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 00:05
PMU (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.92%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -10.39%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-02 05:30
LiveScore Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -5.29%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.92%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -10.39%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-01 00:05
Unibet (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.60%E -0.694%K -0.946%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 15:40
1xBet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 15:49
Tipico (DE)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 15:40
Marathon Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.60%EV -5.94%E -2.33%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.07%EV -7.02%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 14:44
BetMGM2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 07:05
PointsBet (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.09%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -3.90%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 15:40
SportsBet2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 15:40
Fanatics2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 15:40
Bet Right2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.59%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 15:39
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 14:49
Everygame2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.14%E -2.86%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 15:39
NordicBet2.48I 40.32%NM 37.28%EV -7.89%E -3.18%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.68%EV -7.05%E -2.80%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 15:40
Bet Victor2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 15:39
888sport2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 14:44
888sport (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 14:44
Mr Green (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 14:45
William Hill2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 14:45
PlayUp2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 15:49
Betr (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.79%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 15:40
Paddy Power2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-04 15:40
Sky Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -9.00%E -3.67%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 15:40
Winamax (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.79%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 15:39
Neds2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-04 07:04
Ladbrokes (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-04 07:05
Ladbrokes (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-04 07:05
Coral2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-04 07:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 35.17%EV -10.86%E -4.52%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.70%EV -15.16%E -6.59%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.13%EV -22.08%E -7.36%K -11.04%G +0.000%18.5%2026-04-04 15:49
BetUS2.38I 42.02%NM 38.84%EV -11.60%E -4.87%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.75%EV -1.89%E -0.709%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 12:27
BetAnything2.38I 42.02%NM 38.84%EV -11.60%E -4.87%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.75%EV -1.89%E -0.709%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 12:30
Betclic (FR)2.37I 42.19%NM 37.67%EV -11.97%E -5.05%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.44%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -10.39%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 15:39
Winamax (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.30%EV -12.72%E -5.41%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.30%EV -13.32%E -5.67%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.41%EV -10.39%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-04 15:39
NetBet (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 37.72%EV -13.83%E -5.96%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 36.16%EV -10.74%E -4.44%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.12%EV -12.99%E -3.88%K -5.53%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-04 14:49
Unibet (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -14.57%E -6.34%K -11.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -7.79%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 15:39
BoyleSports2.30I 43.48%NM 37.84%EV -14.57%E -6.34%K -11.21%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.57%EV -12.21%E -5.13%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.60%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-04 14:45
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (5)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Matchbook2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%0.9%2026-04-04 15:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.86%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.14%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%1.2%2026-04-04 15:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.86%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.14%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%1.2%2026-04-04 15:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.86%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.14%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%1.2%2026-04-04 15:50
Smarkets2.64I 37.88%NM 37.09%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.81%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.11%2.1%2026-04-04 15:50