Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Varbergs BoIS v IFK Värnamo

Kickoff: 2026-05-08 17:00 UTC

Final: Varbergs BoIS 3–2 IFK Värnamo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Varbergs BoIS (Local)

Prediction 42.03%2.38fair odd
EV +0.460%
Edge +0.193%
Kelly +0.331%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.81%42.01%42.02%45.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.182.182.3950.00%45.83%45.87%41.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IFK Värnamo (Visit)

Prediction 30.69%3.26fair odd
EV -4.55%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -2.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.11%30.80%30.69%33.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.003.053.1137.04%33.37%32.79%32.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.28%3.67fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -0.893%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.78%27.19%27.29%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.343.353.5533.33%29.92%29.85%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Varbergs BoIS (Local): 42.03%; IFK Värnamo (Visit): 30.69%; Draw: 27.28%. For Varbergs BoIS (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.38. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.39, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.460%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.81%EV +0.460%E +0.193%K +0.331%G +0.002%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.39%EV -12.53%E -4.40%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -3.17%E -0.893%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 09:15
Pinnacle🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.22%EV -5.00%E -2.21%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.68%EV -4.55%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.11%EV -3.99%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-08 16:44
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.84%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -5.90%E -1.71%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-08 16:43
LowVig.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.78%EV -5.84%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.53%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-08 16:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.78%EV -5.84%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.53%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-08 16:49
BetAnything🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.78%EV -5.84%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.53%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-08 16:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -6.27%E -2.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.86%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-08 16:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -6.27%E -2.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.86%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-08 16:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -6.27%E -2.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.86%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-08 16:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -6.27%E -2.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.86%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-08 16:24
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.80%EV -6.27%E -2.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.46%EV -6.09%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.74%EV -8.35%E -2.49%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 16:54
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.00%EV -6.69%E -3.01%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-08 16:44
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.00%EV -6.69%E -3.01%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-08 16:44
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.86%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 16:44
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -4.53%E -1.30%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-08 16:39
Marathon Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.15%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.41%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.44%EV -7.81%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-08 16:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-08 16:39
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-08 16:34
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 16:54
Everygame🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -9.46%E -3.21%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.99%E -3.03%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-08 16:44
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -11.00%E -3.79%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -11.35%E -3.49%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-08 16:55
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -11.00%E -3.79%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -11.35%E -3.49%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-08 16:54
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:24
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:25
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:25
TABtouch🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:24
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:24
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:24
BetRivers🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.00%EV -8.79%E -4.05%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.99%E -3.03%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-08 16:24
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -4.86%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.99%E -3.03%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-08 16:30
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.99%E -3.03%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 16:54
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -11.00%E -3.79%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-08 16:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -11.00%E -3.79%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-08 16:40
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.61%E -4.03%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -9.99%E -3.03%K -4.34%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-08 16:40
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.61%E -4.03%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -9.99%E -3.03%K -4.34%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-08 16:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -11.00%E -3.79%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -15.44%E -4.98%K -7.35%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-08 16:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -11.00%E -3.79%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -15.44%E -4.98%K -7.35%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-08 16:30
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.69%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.40%EV -17.14%E -6.35%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.92%EV -11.35%E -3.49%K -5.05%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-08 16:44
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.95%EV -10.05%E -4.70%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.43%EV -9.46%E -3.21%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -11.35%E -3.49%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-08 16:25
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -11.73%E -5.59%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.35%E -3.49%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-08 16:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -11.73%E -5.59%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.35%E -3.49%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-08 16:30
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -11.73%E -5.59%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.35%E -3.49%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-08 16:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.82%EV -11.73%E -5.59%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.61%EV -14.07%E -5.02%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -18.17%E -6.06%K -9.09%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-08 16:40
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.49%EV -13.83%E -6.75%K -13.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.11%EV -14.07%E -5.02%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.40%EV -9.99%E -3.03%K -4.34%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-08 16:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -15.93%E -7.97%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -4.86%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -4.53%E -1.30%K -1.81%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-08 16:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%0.8%2026-05-08 16:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%0.8%2026-05-08 16:44
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%0.8%2026-05-08 16:44
Matchbook2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%0.8%2026-05-08 16:44