L’École des cotes

Varbergs BoIS v IFK Värnamo

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-08 17:00 UTC

Score final : Varbergs BoIS 3–2 IFK Värnamo

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

47 opérateurs (15 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Varbergs BoIS (Local)

Prévision 42.03%2.38cote équitable
EV +0.460%
Avantage +0.193%
Kelly +0.331%
Croissance +0.002%

avec la cote maximale 2.39

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
39.81%42.01%42.02%45.11%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.002.182.182.3950.00%45.83%45.87%41.84%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

IFK Värnamo (Visiteur)

Prévision 30.69%3.26cote équitable
EV -4.55%
Avantage -1.46%
Kelly -2.16%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.11

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.11%30.80%30.69%33.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.703.003.053.1137.04%33.37%32.79%32.15%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 27.28%3.67cote équitable
EV -3.17%
Avantage -0.893%
Kelly -1.24%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.55

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.78%27.19%27.29%28.57%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.343.353.5533.33%29.92%29.85%28.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (47 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Coolbet2.39I 41.84%NM 39.81%EV +0.460%E +0.193%K +0.331%G +0.002%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.39%EV -12.53%E -4.40%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -3.17%E -0.893%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 09:15
Pinnacle2.26I 44.25%NM 42.22%EV -5.00%E -2.21%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.68%EV -4.55%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.11%EV -3.99%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-08 16:44
DraftKings2.25I 44.44%NM 41.84%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -5.90%E -1.71%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-08 16:43
LowVig.ag2.24I 44.64%NM 41.78%EV -5.84%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.53%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-08 16:50
BetOnline.ag2.24I 44.64%NM 41.78%EV -5.84%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.53%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-08 16:49
BetAnything2.24I 44.64%NM 41.78%EV -5.84%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.53%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-08 16:49
Unibet (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -6.27%E -2.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.86%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-08 16:24
LeoVegas (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -6.27%E -2.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.86%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-08 16:24
Svenska Spel2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -6.27%E -2.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.86%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-08 16:24
ATG (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -6.27%E -2.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.86%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-08 16:24
1xBet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.80%EV -6.27%E -2.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.46%EV -6.09%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.74%EV -8.35%E -2.49%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 16:54
NordicBet2.22I 45.05%NM 42.00%EV -6.69%E -3.01%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-08 16:44
Betsson2.22I 45.05%NM 42.00%EV -6.69%E -3.01%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-08 16:44
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.86%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 16:44
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -4.53%E -1.30%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-08 16:39
Marathon Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.15%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.41%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.44%EV -7.81%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-08 16:55
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-08 16:39
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-08 16:34
Bovada2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 16:54
Everygame2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -9.46%E -3.21%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.99%E -3.03%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-08 16:44
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -11.00%E -3.79%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -11.35%E -3.49%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-08 16:55
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -11.00%E -3.79%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -11.35%E -3.49%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-08 16:54
Unibet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:24
Grosvenor2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:24
Unibet (NL)2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:25
LeoVegas2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:25
Virgin Bet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:25
TABtouch2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:24
Casumo2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:24
betPARX2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:24
BetRivers2.17I 46.08%NM 42.00%EV -8.79%E -4.05%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.99%E -3.03%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-08 16:24
BetMGM2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -4.86%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.99%E -3.03%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-08 16:30
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.99%E -3.03%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 16:54
Paddy Power2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -11.00%E -3.79%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-08 16:40
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -11.00%E -3.79%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-08 16:40
betfred_uk2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.61%E -4.03%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -9.99%E -3.03%K -4.34%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-08 16:40
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.61%E -4.03%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -9.99%E -3.03%K -4.34%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-08 16:39
888sport (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -11.00%E -3.79%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -15.44%E -4.98%K -7.35%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-08 16:30
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -11.00%E -3.79%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -15.44%E -4.98%K -7.35%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-08 16:30
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 40.69%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.40%EV -17.14%E -6.35%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.92%EV -11.35%E -3.49%K -5.05%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-08 16:44
LiveScore Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 41.95%EV -10.05%E -4.70%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.43%EV -9.46%E -3.21%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -11.35%E -3.49%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-08 16:25
BetUS2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -11.73%E -5.59%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.35%E -3.49%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-08 16:49
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -11.73%E -5.59%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.35%E -3.49%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-08 16:30
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -11.73%E -5.59%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.35%E -3.49%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-08 16:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.82%EV -11.73%E -5.59%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.61%EV -14.07%E -5.02%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -18.17%E -6.06%K -9.09%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-08 16:40
SportsBet2.05I 48.78%NM 42.49%EV -13.83%E -6.75%K -13.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.11%EV -14.07%E -5.02%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.40%EV -9.99%E -3.03%K -4.34%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-08 16:40
Tipico (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -15.93%E -7.97%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -4.86%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -4.53%E -1.30%K -1.81%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-08 16:39
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%0.8%2026-05-08 16:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%0.8%2026-05-08 16:44
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%0.8%2026-05-08 16:44
Matchbook2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%0.8%2026-05-08 16:44