La escuela de los momios

Varbergs BoIS v IFK Värnamo

Inicio: 2026-05-08 17:00 UTC

Final: Varbergs BoIS 3–2 IFK Värnamo

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

47 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Varbergs BoIS (Local)

Predicción 42.03%2.38momio equitativo
EV +0.460%
Ventaja +0.193%
Kelly +0.331%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.39

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.81%42.01%42.02%45.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.182.182.3950.00%45.83%45.87%41.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

IFK Värnamo (Visitante)

Predicción 30.69%3.26momio equitativo
EV -4.55%
Ventaja -1.46%
Kelly -2.16%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.11

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.11%30.80%30.69%33.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.703.003.053.1137.04%33.37%32.79%32.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.28%3.67momio equitativo
EV -3.17%
Ventaja -0.893%
Kelly -1.24%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.78%27.19%27.29%28.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.343.353.5533.33%29.92%29.85%28.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet2.39I 41.84%NM 39.81%EV +0.460%E +0.193%K +0.331%G +0.002%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.39%EV -12.53%E -4.40%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -3.17%E -0.893%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 09:15
Pinnacle2.26I 44.25%NM 42.22%EV -5.00%E -2.21%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.68%EV -4.55%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.11%EV -3.99%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-08 16:44
DraftKings2.25I 44.44%NM 41.84%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -5.90%E -1.71%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-08 16:43
LowVig.ag2.24I 44.64%NM 41.78%EV -5.84%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.53%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-08 16:50
BetOnline.ag2.24I 44.64%NM 41.78%EV -5.84%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.53%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-08 16:49
BetAnything2.24I 44.64%NM 41.78%EV -5.84%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.53%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-08 16:49
Unibet (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -6.27%E -2.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.86%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-08 16:24
LeoVegas (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -6.27%E -2.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.86%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-08 16:24
Svenska Spel2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -6.27%E -2.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.86%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-08 16:24
ATG (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -6.27%E -2.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.86%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-08 16:24
1xBet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.80%EV -6.27%E -2.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.46%EV -6.09%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.74%EV -8.35%E -2.49%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 16:54
NordicBet2.22I 45.05%NM 42.00%EV -6.69%E -3.01%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-08 16:44
Betsson2.22I 45.05%NM 42.00%EV -6.69%E -3.01%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-08 16:44
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.86%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 16:44
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -4.53%E -1.30%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-08 16:39
Marathon Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.15%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.41%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.44%EV -7.81%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-08 16:55
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-08 16:39
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-08 16:34
Bovada2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 16:54
Everygame2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -9.46%E -3.21%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.99%E -3.03%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-08 16:44
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -11.00%E -3.79%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -11.35%E -3.49%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-08 16:55
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -11.00%E -3.79%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -11.35%E -3.49%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-08 16:54
Unibet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:24
Grosvenor2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:24
Unibet (NL)2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:25
LeoVegas2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:25
Virgin Bet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:25
TABtouch2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:24
Casumo2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:24
betPARX2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.37%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.39%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.57%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:24
BetRivers2.17I 46.08%NM 42.00%EV -8.79%E -4.05%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.99%E -3.03%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-08 16:24
BetMGM2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -4.86%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.99%E -3.03%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-08 16:30
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.99%E -3.03%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 16:54
Paddy Power2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -11.00%E -3.79%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-08 16:40
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -11.00%E -3.79%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -7.26%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-08 16:40
betfred_uk2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.61%E -4.03%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -9.99%E -3.03%K -4.34%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-08 16:40
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.61%E -4.03%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -9.99%E -3.03%K -4.34%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-08 16:39
888sport (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -11.00%E -3.79%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -15.44%E -4.98%K -7.35%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-08 16:30
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -11.00%E -3.79%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -15.44%E -4.98%K -7.35%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-08 16:30
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 40.69%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.40%EV -17.14%E -6.35%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.92%EV -11.35%E -3.49%K -5.05%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-08 16:44
LiveScore Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 41.95%EV -10.05%E -4.70%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.43%EV -9.46%E -3.21%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -11.35%E -3.49%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-08 16:25
BetUS2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -11.73%E -5.59%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.35%E -3.49%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-08 16:49
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -11.73%E -5.59%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.35%E -3.49%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-08 16:30
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -11.73%E -5.59%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.93%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.35%E -3.49%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-08 16:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.82%EV -11.73%E -5.59%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.61%EV -14.07%E -5.02%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -18.17%E -6.06%K -9.09%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-08 16:40
SportsBet2.05I 48.78%NM 42.49%EV -13.83%E -6.75%K -13.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.11%EV -14.07%E -5.02%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.40%EV -9.99%E -3.03%K -4.34%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-08 16:40
Tipico (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -15.93%E -7.97%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -4.86%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -4.53%E -1.30%K -1.81%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-08 16:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%0.8%2026-05-08 16:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%0.8%2026-05-08 16:44
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%0.8%2026-05-08 16:44
Matchbook2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%0.8%2026-05-08 16:44