Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

IFK Värnamo v GIF Sundsvall

Kickoff: 2026-04-14 17:02 UTC

Final: IFK Värnamo 3–0 GIF Sundsvall

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

45 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IFK Värnamo (Local)

Prediction 50.79%1.97fair odd
EV -5.54%
Edge -2.98%
Kelly -6.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.08%50.83%50.65%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.791.801.8659.52%55.76%55.56%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

GIF Sundsvall (Visit)

Prediction 22.73%4.40fair odd
EV +6.82%
Edge +1.45%
Kelly +1.84%
Growth +0.126%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.28%22.63%22.95%25.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.064.004.7028.57%24.66%25.00%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.49%3.78fair odd
EV +0.652%
Edge +0.172%
Kelly +0.233%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.61%26.54%26.41%28.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.493.503.8033.33%28.62%28.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IFK Värnamo (Local): 50.79%; GIF Sundsvall (Visit): 22.73%; Draw: 26.49%. For GIF Sundsvall (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.40. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.82%.

Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.25%EV -9.09%E -5.08%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.28%EV +6.82%E +1.45%K +1.84%G +0.126%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -4.65%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-14 16:59
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.35%EV -6.05%E -3.27%K -7.11%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.04%EV -2.05%E -0.475%K -0.618%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.61%EV -5.44%E -1.52%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-14 16:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%EV -10.62%E -6.03%K -13.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -2.27%E -0.529%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV +0.652%E +0.172%K +0.233%G +0.002%6.4%2026-04-14 17:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%EV -10.62%E -6.03%K -13.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -2.27%E -0.529%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV +0.652%E +0.172%K +0.233%G +0.002%6.4%2026-04-14 17:01
Svenska Spel🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%EV -10.62%E -6.03%K -13.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -2.27%E -0.529%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV +0.652%E +0.172%K +0.233%G +0.002%6.4%2026-04-14 17:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%EV -10.62%E -6.03%K -13.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -2.27%E -0.529%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV +0.652%E +0.172%K +0.233%G +0.002%6.4%2026-04-14 17:01
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -7.06%E -3.86%K -8.51%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -2.27%E -0.529%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-14 16:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.16%EV -13.66%E -8.04%K -19.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.02%EV -2.27%E -0.529%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-14 17:00
Unibet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.38%EV -11.63%E -6.69%K -15.72%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -3.41%E -0.802%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -0.672%E -0.179%K -0.244%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-14 17:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.38%EV -11.63%E -6.69%K -15.72%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -3.41%E -0.802%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -0.672%E -0.179%K -0.244%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-14 17:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.04%EV -9.60%E -5.39%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.80%EV -3.41%E -0.802%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.17%EV -6.23%E -1.76%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-14 16:59
Virgin Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.35%EV -12.65%E -7.35%K -17.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -4.55%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -2.00%E -0.540%K -0.739%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-14 17:01
TABtouch🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.35%EV -12.65%E -7.35%K -17.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -4.55%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -2.00%E -0.540%K -0.739%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-14 17:01
Casumo🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.35%EV -12.65%E -7.35%K -17.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -4.55%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -2.00%E -0.540%K -0.739%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-14 17:00
Grosvenor🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.35%EV -12.65%E -7.35%K -17.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -4.55%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -2.00%E -0.540%K -0.739%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-14 17:00
LeoVegas🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.35%EV -12.65%E -7.35%K -17.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -4.55%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -2.00%E -0.540%K -0.739%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-14 17:00
betPARX🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.35%EV -12.65%E -7.35%K -17.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -4.55%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -2.00%E -0.540%K -0.739%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-14 17:01
LowVig.ag🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.38%EV -5.54%E -2.98%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -6.82%E -1.66%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-14 17:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.38%EV -5.54%E -2.98%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -6.82%E -1.66%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-14 17:01
LiveScore Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.48%EV -14.68%E -8.74%K -21.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.91%EV -6.82%E -1.66%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.61%EV -3.32%E -0.910%K -1.25%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-14 17:00
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.33%EV -7.57%E -4.16%K -9.23%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.07%EV -7.95%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.60%EV -3.32%E -0.910%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-14 16:59
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.33%EV -7.57%E -4.16%K -9.23%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.07%EV -7.95%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.60%EV -3.32%E -0.910%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-14 16:58
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -6.05%E -3.27%K -7.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -9.09%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-14 16:59
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -8.59%E -4.77%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.09%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -4.65%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-14 17:00
Everygame🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.32%EV -8.59%E -4.77%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -9.09%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -11.27%E -3.36%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-14 16:59
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -8.59%E -4.77%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -9.09%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -12.59%E -3.82%K -5.47%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-14 17:00
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.90%EV -8.59%E -4.77%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -9.09%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -13.92%E -4.28%K -6.18%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-14 17:01
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.23%EV -5.54%E -2.98%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 23.53%EV -9.77%E -2.46%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.24%EV -5.70%E -1.60%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-14 16:59
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.16%EV -7.06%E -3.86%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.24%EV -10.23%E -2.59%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -8.62%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-14 16:58
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.16%EV -7.06%E -3.86%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.24%EV -10.23%E -2.59%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -8.62%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-14 17:00
BetAnything🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.16%EV -7.06%E -3.86%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.24%EV -10.23%E -2.59%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -8.62%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-14 16:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -7.06%E -3.86%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -11.36%E -2.91%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-14 16:59
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -7.06%E -3.86%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -11.36%E -2.91%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-14 17:00
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -6.05%E -3.27%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -11.36%E -2.91%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -15.24%E -4.76%K -6.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-14 16:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -6.05%E -3.27%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -11.36%E -2.91%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -15.24%E -4.76%K -6.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-14 16:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -6.05%E -3.27%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -11.36%E -2.91%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -15.24%E -4.76%K -6.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-14 16:59
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -8.59%E -4.77%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -11.36%E -2.91%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -15.24%E -4.76%K -6.93%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-14 17:00
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.67%EV -11.13%E -6.36%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.29%EV -11.36%E -2.91%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.04%EV -17.89%E -5.77%K -8.52%G +0.000%15.0%2026-04-14 17:01
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.47%EV -7.06%E -3.86%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.51%EV -12.50%E -3.25%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.02%EV -11.27%E -3.36%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-14 17:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.65%EV -7.57%E -4.16%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -13.64%E -3.59%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-14 16:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.53%EV -8.59%E -4.77%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -13.64%E -3.59%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -12.59%E -3.82%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-14 17:00
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.35%EV -7.06%E -3.86%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -14.77%E -3.94%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-14 16:59
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.37%EV -8.59%E -4.77%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -14.77%E -3.94%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -12.59%E -3.82%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-14 17:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.08%EV -8.59%E -4.77%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.08%EV -14.77%E -3.94%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.85%EV -20.54%E -6.85%K -10.27%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-14 17:00
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.14%EV -7.06%E -3.86%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -20.45%E -5.84%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.69%EV -12.59%E -3.82%K -5.47%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-14 17:01
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.94I 51.55%NM 50.95%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.97%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.08%1.2%2026-04-14 17:01
Matchbook1.94I 51.55%NM 50.95%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.97%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.08%1.2%2026-04-14 17:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.08%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%1.4%2026-04-14 17:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 50.51%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.27%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.22%2.1%2026-04-14 17:01