La escuela de los momios

IFK Värnamo v GIF Sundsvall

Inicio: 2026-04-14 17:02 UTC

Final: IFK Värnamo 3–0 GIF Sundsvall

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

45 corredores (13 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

IFK Värnamo (Local)

Predicción 50.79%1.97momio equitativo
EV -5.54%
Ventaja -2.98%
Kelly -6.44%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.86

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.08%50.83%50.65%53.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.681.791.801.8659.52%55.76%55.56%53.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

GIF Sundsvall (Visitante)

Predicción 22.73%4.40momio equitativo
EV +6.82%
Ventaja +1.45%
Kelly +1.84%
Crecimiento +0.126%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.28%22.63%22.95%25.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.504.064.004.7028.57%24.66%25.00%21.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.49%3.78momio equitativo
EV +0.652%
Ventaja +0.172%
Kelly +0.233%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.61%26.54%26.41%28.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.493.503.8033.33%28.62%28.57%26.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet1.79I 55.87%NM 53.25%EV -9.09%E -5.08%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.28%EV +6.82%E +1.45%K +1.84%G +0.126%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -4.65%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-14 16:59
Pinnacle1.85I 54.05%NM 51.35%EV -6.05%E -3.27%K -7.11%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.04%EV -2.05%E -0.475%K -0.618%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.61%EV -5.44%E -1.52%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-14 16:59
Unibet (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%EV -10.62%E -6.03%K -13.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -2.27%E -0.529%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV +0.652%E +0.172%K +0.233%G +0.002%6.4%2026-04-14 17:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%EV -10.62%E -6.03%K -13.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -2.27%E -0.529%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV +0.652%E +0.172%K +0.233%G +0.002%6.4%2026-04-14 17:01
Svenska Spel1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%EV -10.62%E -6.03%K -13.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -2.27%E -0.529%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV +0.652%E +0.172%K +0.233%G +0.002%6.4%2026-04-14 17:00
ATG (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%EV -10.62%E -6.03%K -13.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -2.27%E -0.529%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV +0.652%E +0.172%K +0.233%G +0.002%6.4%2026-04-14 17:01
FanDuel1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -7.06%E -3.86%K -8.51%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -2.27%E -0.529%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-14 16:59
Tipico (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.16%EV -13.66%E -8.04%K -19.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.02%EV -2.27%E -0.529%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-14 17:00
Unibet1.74I 57.47%NM 53.38%EV -11.63%E -6.69%K -15.72%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -3.41%E -0.802%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -0.672%E -0.179%K -0.244%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-14 17:00
Unibet (NL)1.74I 57.47%NM 53.38%EV -11.63%E -6.69%K -15.72%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -3.41%E -0.802%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -0.672%E -0.179%K -0.244%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-14 17:00
Marathon Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.04%EV -9.60%E -5.39%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.80%EV -3.41%E -0.802%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.17%EV -6.23%E -1.76%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-14 16:59
Virgin Bet1.72I 58.14%NM 53.35%EV -12.65%E -7.35%K -17.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -4.55%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -2.00%E -0.540%K -0.739%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-14 17:01
TABtouch1.72I 58.14%NM 53.35%EV -12.65%E -7.35%K -17.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -4.55%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -2.00%E -0.540%K -0.739%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-14 17:01
Casumo1.72I 58.14%NM 53.35%EV -12.65%E -7.35%K -17.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -4.55%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -2.00%E -0.540%K -0.739%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-14 17:00
Grosvenor1.72I 58.14%NM 53.35%EV -12.65%E -7.35%K -17.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -4.55%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -2.00%E -0.540%K -0.739%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-14 17:00
LeoVegas1.72I 58.14%NM 53.35%EV -12.65%E -7.35%K -17.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -4.55%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -2.00%E -0.540%K -0.739%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-14 17:00
betPARX1.72I 58.14%NM 53.35%EV -12.65%E -7.35%K -17.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -4.55%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -2.00%E -0.540%K -0.739%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-14 17:01
LowVig.ag1.86I 53.76%NM 50.38%EV -5.54%E -2.98%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -6.82%E -1.66%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-14 17:00
BetOnline.ag1.86I 53.76%NM 50.38%EV -5.54%E -2.98%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -6.82%E -1.66%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-14 17:01
LiveScore Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 53.48%EV -14.68%E -8.74%K -21.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.91%EV -6.82%E -1.66%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.61%EV -3.32%E -0.910%K -1.25%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-14 17:00
NordicBet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.33%EV -7.57%E -4.16%K -9.23%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.07%EV -7.95%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.60%EV -3.32%E -0.910%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-14 16:59
Betsson1.82I 54.95%NM 51.33%EV -7.57%E -4.16%K -9.23%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.07%EV -7.95%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.60%EV -3.32%E -0.910%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-14 16:58
Bet Victor1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -6.05%E -3.27%K -7.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -9.09%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-14 16:59
Betway1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -8.59%E -4.77%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.09%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -4.65%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-14 17:00
Everygame1.80I 55.56%NM 50.32%EV -8.59%E -4.77%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -9.09%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -11.27%E -3.36%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-14 16:59
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -8.59%E -4.77%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -9.09%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -12.59%E -3.82%K -5.47%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-14 17:00
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 49.90%EV -8.59%E -4.77%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -9.09%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -13.92%E -4.28%K -6.18%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-14 17:01
1xBet1.86I 53.76%NM 50.23%EV -5.54%E -2.98%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 23.53%EV -9.77%E -2.46%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.24%EV -5.70%E -1.60%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-14 16:59
Bovada1.83I 54.64%NM 50.16%EV -7.06%E -3.86%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.24%EV -10.23%E -2.59%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -8.62%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-14 16:58
BetUS1.83I 54.64%NM 50.16%EV -7.06%E -3.86%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.24%EV -10.23%E -2.59%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -8.62%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-14 17:00
BetAnything1.83I 54.64%NM 50.16%EV -7.06%E -3.86%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.24%EV -10.23%E -2.59%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -8.62%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-14 16:59
PointsBet (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -7.06%E -3.86%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -11.36%E -2.91%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-14 16:59
BetMGM1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -7.06%E -3.86%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -11.36%E -2.91%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-14 17:00
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -6.05%E -3.27%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -11.36%E -2.91%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -15.24%E -4.76%K -6.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-14 16:59
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -6.05%E -3.27%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -11.36%E -2.91%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -15.24%E -4.76%K -6.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-14 16:59
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -6.05%E -3.27%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -11.36%E -2.91%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -15.24%E -4.76%K -6.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-14 16:59
Sky Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -8.59%E -4.77%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -11.36%E -2.91%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -15.24%E -4.76%K -6.93%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-14 17:00
SportsBet1.75I 57.14%NM 49.67%EV -11.13%E -6.36%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.29%EV -11.36%E -2.91%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.04%EV -17.89%E -5.77%K -8.52%G +0.000%15.0%2026-04-14 17:01
PlayUp1.83I 54.64%NM 49.47%EV -7.06%E -3.86%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.51%EV -12.50%E -3.25%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.02%EV -11.27%E -3.36%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-14 17:00
Betr (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 49.65%EV -7.57%E -4.16%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -13.64%E -3.59%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-14 16:59
Ladbrokes (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 49.53%EV -8.59%E -4.77%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -13.64%E -3.59%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -12.59%E -3.82%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-14 17:00
betfred_uk1.83I 54.64%NM 49.35%EV -7.06%E -3.86%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -14.77%E -3.94%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-14 16:59
Coral1.80I 55.56%NM 49.37%EV -8.59%E -4.77%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -14.77%E -3.94%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -12.59%E -3.82%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-14 17:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 48.08%EV -8.59%E -4.77%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.08%EV -14.77%E -3.94%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.85%EV -20.54%E -6.85%K -10.27%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-14 17:00
BoyleSports1.83I 54.64%NM 48.14%EV -7.06%E -3.86%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -20.45%E -5.84%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.69%EV -12.59%E -3.82%K -5.47%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-14 17:01
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.94I 51.55%NM 50.95%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.97%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.08%1.2%2026-04-14 17:01
Matchbook1.94I 51.55%NM 50.95%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.97%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.08%1.2%2026-04-14 17:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.08%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%1.4%2026-04-14 17:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 50.51%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.27%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.22%2.1%2026-04-14 17:01