Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

IK Sirius v Hammarby IF

Kickoff: 2026-04-13 17:00 UTC

Final: IK Sirius 2–0 Hammarby IF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IK Sirius (Local)

Prediction 35.76%2.80fair odd
EV +3.71%
Edge +1.28%
Kelly +1.95%
Growth +0.073%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.28%35.54%35.75%36.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.622.602.9041.67%38.21%38.46%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hammarby IF (Visit)

Prediction 36.66%2.73fair odd
EV -1.76%
Edge -0.657%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.03%36.88%36.61%40.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.452.452.6846.08%40.82%40.82%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.58%3.63fair odd
EV +3.43%
Edge +0.914%
Kelly +1.25%
Growth +0.043%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.96%27.59%27.64%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.363.353.7534.72%29.74%29.85%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IK Sirius (Local): 35.76%; Hammarby IF (Visit): 36.66%; Draw: 27.58%. For IK Sirius (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.80. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.71%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.71%EV +3.71%E +1.28%K +1.95%G +0.073%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.23%EV -10.92%E -4.50%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.07%EV +3.43%E +0.914%K +1.25%G +0.043%2.3%2026-04-13 16:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.42%EV +3.71%E +1.28%K +1.95%G +0.073%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.38%EV -12.02%E -5.01%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%EV +2.05%E +0.554%K +0.759%G +0.016%3.2%2026-04-13 16:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.42%EV +3.71%E +1.28%K +1.95%G +0.073%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.38%EV -12.02%E -5.01%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%EV +2.05%E +0.554%K +0.759%G +0.016%3.2%2026-04-13 16:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV +1.92%E +0.675%K +1.04%G +0.020%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -13.86%E -5.90%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -0.709%E -0.197%K -0.273%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-13 16:55
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -1.65%E -0.601%K -0.944%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -15.69%E -6.82%K -12.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -2.09%E -0.588%K -0.819%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-13 16:45
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -1.65%E -0.601%K -0.944%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -15.69%E -6.82%K -12.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -2.09%E -0.588%K -0.819%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-13 16:55
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -1.65%E -0.601%K -0.944%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -15.69%E -6.82%K -12.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -2.09%E -0.588%K -0.819%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-13 16:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -1.65%E -0.601%K -0.944%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -15.69%E -6.82%K -12.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -2.09%E -0.588%K -0.819%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-13 16:45
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -1.65%E -0.601%K -0.944%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -15.69%E -6.82%K -12.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -2.09%E -0.588%K -0.819%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-13 16:45
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.55%EV -1.65%E -0.601%K -0.944%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -16.42%E -7.20%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -2.09%E -0.588%K -0.819%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-13 16:40
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -1.65%E -0.601%K -0.944%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -16.42%E -7.20%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -3.47%E -0.991%K -1.39%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-13 16:54
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -1.65%E -0.601%K -0.944%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -16.42%E -7.20%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -3.47%E -0.991%K -1.39%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-13 16:55
Coolbet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.01%EV -2.01%E -0.733%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.18%EV -5.43%E -2.10%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.81%EV -4.85%E -1.40%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-13 16:55
Pinnacle🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.53%EV -3.44%E -1.27%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.90%EV -4.69%E -1.81%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.57%EV -4.02%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-13 16:45
GTbets🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.51%EV -3.44%E -1.27%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.17%EV -5.43%E -2.10%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.32%EV -3.19%E -0.909%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-13 16:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -3.44%E -1.27%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -8.36%E -3.34%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -11.74%E -3.67%K -5.34%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-13 16:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -3.44%E -1.27%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -8.36%E -3.34%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -11.74%E -3.67%K -5.34%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-13 16:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -3.44%E -1.27%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -17.52%E -7.79%K -14.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -3.47%E -0.991%K -1.39%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-13 16:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -3.44%E -1.27%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.23%EV -17.52%E -7.79%K -14.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.24%EV -4.85%E -1.40%K -1.98%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-13 16:55
Bovada🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.30%EV -4.87%E -1.83%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.68%EV -6.16%E -2.41%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -7.60%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-13 16:44
PMU (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.37%EV -5.94%E -2.26%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.44%EV -20.46%E -9.43%K -17.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.19%EV -7.60%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-13 16:55
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -6.30%E -2.41%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -8.36%E -3.34%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -14.50%E -4.68%K -6.90%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-13 16:54
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -6.30%E -2.41%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -8.36%E -3.34%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -14.50%E -4.68%K -6.90%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-13 16:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -6.30%E -2.41%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -8.36%E -3.34%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -14.50%E -4.68%K -6.90%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-13 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -6.30%E -2.41%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -8.36%E -3.34%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -14.50%E -4.68%K -6.90%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-13 16:55
BetAnything🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 35.93%EV -6.66%E -2.55%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.66%EV -3.59%E -1.37%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -8.98%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-13 16:54
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -7.02%E -2.70%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -4.69%E -1.81%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-13 16:54
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -7.02%E -2.70%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -4.69%E -1.81%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-13 16:55
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -7.02%E -2.70%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -4.69%E -1.81%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.98%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-13 16:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -7.02%E -2.70%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -10.19%E -4.16%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -3.47%E -0.991%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-13 16:45
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -7.02%E -2.70%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -8.36%E -3.34%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-13 16:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -7.02%E -2.70%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -10.19%E -4.16%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-13 16:55
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.02%E -2.70%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -12.02%E -5.01%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -3.47%E -0.991%K -1.39%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-13 16:34
Betsson🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.15%EV -7.73%E -3.00%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.59%EV -3.96%E -1.51%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.98%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-13 16:55
NordicBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.15%EV -7.73%E -3.00%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.59%EV -3.96%E -1.51%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.98%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-13 16:55
BetUS🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.53%EV -8.09%E -3.15%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.03%EV -1.76%E -0.657%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -8.98%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-13 16:55
Everygame🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -8.80%E -3.45%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.33%EV -2.86%E -1.08%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.95%EV -7.60%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-13 16:55
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.10%EV -8.80%E -3.45%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.82%EV -8.36%E -3.34%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-13 16:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -8.80%E -3.45%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -12.02%E -5.01%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-13 16:35
1xBet🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.78%EV -9.16%E -3.61%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.66%EV -3.96%E -1.51%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 27.56%EV -6.50%E -1.92%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-13 16:55
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.52%EV -10.59%E -4.24%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -8.98%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-13 16:54
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.59%E -4.24%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -10.19%E -4.16%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-13 16:55
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.59%E -4.24%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.36%E -3.34%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -8.98%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-13 16:55
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.59%E -4.24%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.36%E -3.34%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -8.98%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-13 16:55
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -10.59%E -4.24%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -11.74%E -3.67%K -5.34%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-13 16:55
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.58%EV -10.59%E -4.24%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.06%EV -12.02%E -5.01%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -10.36%E -3.19%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-13 16:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.58%EV -10.59%E -4.24%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.06%EV -12.02%E -5.01%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -10.36%E -3.19%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-13 16:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.58%EV -10.59%E -4.24%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.06%EV -12.02%E -5.01%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -10.36%E -3.19%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-13 16:54
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.41%EV -10.59%E -4.24%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.35%EV -13.12%E -5.54%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -10.36%E -3.19%K -4.61%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-13 16:45
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -12.38%E -5.05%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -8.36%E -3.34%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -11.74%E -3.67%K -5.34%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-13 16:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 35.63%EV -13.45%E -5.56%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 37.00%EV -14.59%E -6.26%K -10.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.37%EV -13.12%E -4.17%K -6.10%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-13 16:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.52%EV -14.17%E -5.90%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.52%EV -12.02%E -5.01%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -10.36%E -3.19%K -4.61%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-13 16:55
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.36%EV -14.17%E -5.90%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.36%EV -12.02%E -5.01%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -11.74%E -3.67%K -5.34%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-13 16:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.93%EV -14.17%E -5.90%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.69%EV -13.86%E -5.90%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.38%EV -13.12%E -4.17%K -6.10%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-13 16:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.29%EV -14.17%E -5.90%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.29%EV -12.02%E -5.01%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -20.57%E -7.14%K -10.94%G +0.000%18.1%2026-04-13 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.35%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.35%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29%0.4%2026-04-13 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.35%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.35%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29%0.4%2026-04-13 16:55
Matchbook2.72I 36.76%NM 36.48%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.95%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.56%0.8%2026-04-13 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.65%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.86%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.0%2026-04-13 16:55
Smarkets2.66I 37.59%NM 36.37%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.37%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.25%3.4%2026-04-13 16:55