Language:English
Motherwell v Hearts
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Motherwell (Local)
Prediction 32.22%3.10fair odd
EV -0.129%
Edge -0.042%
Kelly -0.061%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.13%32.20%32.31%35.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.832.853.1038.46%35.34%35.09%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Hearts (Visit)
Prediction 39.32%2.54fair odd
EV +2.23%
Edge +0.857%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.031%
assuming max odds 2.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.41%39.32%39.27%41.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.402.402.6045.45%41.68%41.67%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.46%3.51fair odd
EV +2.47%
Edge +0.687%
Kelly +0.951%
Growth +0.024%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.01%28.48%28.42%30.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.323.353.6032.79%30.11%29.85%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Motherwell (Local): 32.22%; Hearts (Visit): 39.32%; Draw: 28.46%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.51. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.47%.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.44%EV -11.40%E -4.15%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.49%EV +2.23%E +0.857%K +1.39%G +0.031% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.07%EV +2.47%E +0.687%K +0.951%G +0.024% | 2.6% | 2026-05-09 19:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.44%EV -11.40%E -4.15%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.49%EV +2.23%E +0.857%K +1.39%G +0.031% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.07%EV +2.47%E +0.687%K +0.951%G +0.024% | 2.6% | 2026-05-09 19:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.33%EV -13.02%E -4.82%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.41%EV +0.263%E +0.103%K +0.170%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26%EV -0.374%E -0.107%K -0.149%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -14.63%E -5.52%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.48%EV -1.70%E -0.681%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -1.80%E -0.521%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -14.63%E -5.52%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.48%EV -1.70%E -0.681%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -1.80%E -0.521%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -14.63%E -5.52%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.48%EV -1.70%E -0.681%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -1.80%E -0.521%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 19:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.73%EV -1.74%E -0.570%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.86%EV -2.10%E -0.842%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 29.41%EV -6.35%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.43%EV -15.27%E -5.81%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.57%EV -2.49%E -1.00%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -1.80%E -0.521%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.43%EV -15.27%E -5.81%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.57%EV -2.49%E -1.00%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -1.80%E -0.521%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 19:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.43%EV -15.27%E -5.81%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.57%EV -2.49%E -1.00%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -1.80%E -0.521%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 19:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.43%EV -15.27%E -5.81%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.57%EV -2.49%E -1.00%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -1.80%E -0.521%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -14.63%E -5.52%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -3.67%E -1.50%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -3.22%E -0.947%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 18:47 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -16.24%E -6.25%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -3.67%E -1.50%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -3.22%E -0.947%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-09 19:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.14%EV -16.24%E -6.25%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.59%EV -4.46%E -1.83%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.27%EV -4.64%E -1.39%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.14%EV -16.24%E -6.25%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.59%EV -4.46%E -1.83%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.27%EV -4.64%E -1.39%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.14%EV -16.24%E -6.25%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.59%EV -4.46%E -1.83%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.27%EV -4.64%E -1.39%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.36%EV -7.22%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.51%EV -4.85%E -2.00%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -8.91%E -2.79%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 19:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.36%EV -7.22%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.51%EV -4.85%E -2.00%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -8.91%E -2.79%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 19:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.93%EV -6.57%E -2.27%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.79%EV -5.63%E -2.35%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -0.374%E -0.107%K -0.149%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -3.35%E -1.12%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -5.63%E -2.35%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -6.07%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 19:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.82%EV -7.22%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -5.63%E -2.35%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -3.22%E -0.947%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.90%EV -7.54%E -2.63%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.34%EV -5.63%E -2.35%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.77%EV -3.22%E -0.947%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 19:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -8.18%E -2.87%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -5.63%E -2.35%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -3.22%E -0.947%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -9.79%E -3.50%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -5.63%E -2.35%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -3.22%E -0.947%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -9.79%E -3.50%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -5.63%E -2.35%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -3.22%E -0.947%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-09 19:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -9.79%E -3.50%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -5.63%E -2.35%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -3.22%E -0.947%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -9.79%E -3.50%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -5.63%E -2.35%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -3.22%E -0.947%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -7.22%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -5.63%E -2.35%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -7.49%E -2.30%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -4.96%E -1.68%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -5.63%E -2.35%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -10.34%E -3.28%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.49%EV -8.18%E -2.87%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.58%EV -5.63%E -2.35%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.93%EV -8.91%E -2.79%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 19:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.76%EV -5.28%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.07%EV -6.03%E -2.52%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV -8.91%E -2.79%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -6.57%E -2.27%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 38.61%EV -6.03%E -2.52%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.57%EV -11.19%E -3.59%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.22%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -6.42%E -2.70%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -3.22%E -0.947%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-09 18:58 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.42%EV -6.57%E -2.27%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.51%EV -6.42%E -2.70%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.07%EV -4.64%E -1.39%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.79%E -3.50%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.22%EV -6.42%E -2.70%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -3.22%E -0.947%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -6.57%E -2.27%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV -6.42%E -2.70%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -8.91%E -2.79%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-09 19:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.57%E -2.27%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.42%E -2.70%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.76%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.57%E -2.27%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.42%E -2.70%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.76%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.57%E -2.27%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.42%E -2.70%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.76%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -0.129%E -0.042%K -0.061%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.60%E -3.23%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -11.76%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -9.79%E -3.50%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -7.60%E -3.23%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -3.22%E -0.947%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -6.57%E -2.27%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.93%EV -7.60%E -3.23%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -11.76%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-09 19:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.19%EV -0.773%E -0.251%K -0.372%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.05%EV -7.99%E -3.42%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.76%EV -1.51%E -0.437%K -0.615%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -3.35%E -1.12%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -9.57%E -4.16%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.07%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -3.35%E -1.12%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.57%E -4.16%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -11.76%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -3.35%E -1.12%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.57%E -4.16%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -11.76%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -0.129%E -0.042%K -0.061%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -11.53%E -5.13%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.64%E -1.39%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-09 19:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -0.129%E -0.042%K -0.061%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -11.53%E -5.13%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.64%E -1.39%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -9.79%E -3.50%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.07%EV -11.53%E -5.13%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -7.49%E -2.30%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-09 19:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -9.79%E -3.50%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -13.50%E -6.14%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -7.49%E -2.30%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.13%EV -13.02%E -4.82%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.43%EV -13.50%E -6.14%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.44%EV -13.18%E -4.32%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-05-09 18:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 3.12I 32.05%NM 32.03% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.96% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 27.01% | 0.1% | 2026-05-09 19:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.75% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67% | 0.6% | 2026-05-09 19:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.75% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67% | 0.6% | 2026-05-09 19:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.75% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67% | 0.6% | 2026-05-09 19:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.58% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98% | 1.1% | 2026-05-09 19:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.73% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.40% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 19:00 |