Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hibernian v Kilmarnock

Kickoff: 2026-09-15 18:45 UTC

Final: Hibernian 0–1 Kilmarnock

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hibernian (Local)

Prediction 66.48%1.50fair odd
EV -3.60%
Edge -2.48%
Kelly -8.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.30%66.35%66.62%67.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.401.401.4574.63%71.24%71.43%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kilmarnock (Visit)

Prediction 13.94%7.17fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -0.322%
Kelly -0.376%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.12%14.04%13.78%15.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.576.507.0116.67%15.21%15.38%14.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.58%5.11fair odd
EV -2.12%
Edge -0.423%
Kelly -0.529%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.35%19.62%19.61%21.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.694.655.0023.26%21.31%21.51%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hibernian (Local): 66.48%; Kilmarnock (Visit): 13.94%; Draw: 19.58%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.11. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.00, with an expected value of -2.12%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.41%EV -3.60%E -2.48%K -8.01%G +0.000%7.01I 14.27%NM 13.74%EV -2.26%E -0.322%K -0.376%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.85%EV -5.05%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-15 18:41
Svenska Spel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.32%EV -4.93%E -3.45%K -11.47%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -9.95%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-15 18:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.32%EV -4.93%E -3.45%K -11.47%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -9.95%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-15 18:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.18%EV -4.93%E -3.45%K -11.47%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -10.77%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -9.95%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-15 18:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.18%EV -4.93%E -3.45%K -11.47%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -10.77%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -9.95%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-15 18:05
Betsson🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.82%EV -4.93%E -3.45%K -11.47%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.63%EV -5.19%E -0.763%K -0.895%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.55%EV -15.82%E -3.68%K -4.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-15 18:35
NordicBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.82%EV -4.93%E -3.45%K -11.47%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.63%EV -5.19%E -0.763%K -0.895%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.55%EV -15.82%E -3.68%K -4.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-15 18:36
Coolbet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.26%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.64%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-15 17:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.56%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.54%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-15 17:44
DraftKings🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.30%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.48%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -4.07%E -0.832%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-15 17:45
LeoVegas🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.17%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%EV -12.86%E -2.06%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-15 17:45
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.88%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -13.86%E -3.15%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-15 18:41
Casumo🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -12.86%E -2.06%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -11.91%E -2.65%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:05
Grosvenor🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -12.86%E -2.06%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -11.91%E -2.65%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -12.86%E -2.06%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -11.91%E -2.65%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -12.86%E -2.06%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -11.91%E -2.65%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:05
betPARX🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -12.86%E -2.06%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -11.91%E -2.65%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:05
Unibet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -12.86%E -2.06%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -11.91%E -2.65%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:05
TABtouch🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -12.86%E -2.06%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -11.91%E -2.65%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:05
1xBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.28%EV -6.26%E -4.44%K -15.27%G +0.000%6.86I 14.58%NM 13.62%EV -4.35%E -0.634%K -0.743%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.10%EV -8.97%E -1.93%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-15 18:40
Bovada🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.13%EV -6.26%E -4.44%K -15.27%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.69%EV -12.86%E -2.06%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.18%EV -10.93%E -2.40%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-15 18:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.30%EV -6.26%E -4.44%K -15.27%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.86%EV -14.95%E -2.45%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.84%EV -14.84%E -3.41%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-15 18:05
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-15 17:21
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-15 14:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-15 17:20
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-15 14:15
Fanatics🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-15 18:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.31%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -4.07%E -0.832%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-15 17:21
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.30%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.86%EV -5.19%E -0.763%K -0.895%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.84%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-15 14:16
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.30%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.86%EV -5.19%E -0.763%K -0.895%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.84%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-15 14:15
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -6.03%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-15 17:39
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -6.03%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-15 17:39
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.71%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -5.89%E -0.872%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -6.03%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-15 14:16
BetOnline.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.50%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.69%EV -5.19%E -0.763%K -0.895%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -7.99%E -1.70%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-15 18:41
LowVig.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.50%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.69%EV -5.19%E -0.763%K -0.895%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -7.99%E -1.70%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-15 18:40
BetUS🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.50%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.69%EV -5.19%E -0.763%K -0.895%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -7.99%E -1.70%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-15 18:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.43%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.85I 14.60%NM 13.58%EV -4.49%E -0.656%K -0.768%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.00%EV -8.97%E -1.93%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-15 18:34
Bet Right🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -7.01%E -1.48%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-15 17:20
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -7.01%E -1.48%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-15 17:41
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -9.95%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:15
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -9.95%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -9.95%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -9.95%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:16
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -16.34%E -2.72%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -11.91%E -2.65%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-15 17:50
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.30%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -16.34%E -2.72%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.69%EV -14.84%E -3.41%K -4.43%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-15 18:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.30%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -16.34%E -2.72%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.69%EV -14.84%E -3.41%K -4.43%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-15 18:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 65.20%EV -7.59%E -5.46%K -19.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV -16.34%E -2.72%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.70%EV -9.95%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-15 17:45
SportsBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.36%EV -8.26%E -5.98%K -21.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.28%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV -6.03%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-15 18:35
FanDuel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -9.59%E -7.05%K -26.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -6.03%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:35
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -9.59%E -7.05%K -26.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -7.01%E -1.48%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-15 18:35
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -9.59%E -7.05%K -26.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-15 18:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.57%EV -9.59%E -7.05%K -26.63%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.62%EV -14.95%E -2.45%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.82%EV -11.91%E -2.65%K -3.40%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-15 18:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.96%EV -10.25%E -7.59%K -29.29%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.69%EV -6.58%E -0.983%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-15 17:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.02%EV -10.92%E -8.15%K -32.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.75%EV -16.34%E -2.72%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.23%EV -9.95%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-15 18:16
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.97%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.81%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.22%0.1%2026-09-15 18:41
Smarkets◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.75%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.10%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15%0.4%2026-09-15 18:41
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.75%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.10%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15%0.4%2026-09-15 18:41
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.75%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.10%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15%0.4%2026-09-15 18:41
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.75%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.10%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15%0.4%2026-09-15 18:41
Kalshi◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.30%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.88%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.83%1.0%2026-09-15 18:00