Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Hibernian v Kilmarnock

Início: 2026-09-15 18:45 UTC

Final: Hibernian 0–1 Kilmarnock

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

54 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Hibernian (Local)

Previsão 66.48%1.50odd justa
EV -3.60%
Vantagem -2.48%
Kelly -8.01%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.45

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
64.30%66.35%66.62%67.96%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.341.401.401.4574.63%71.24%71.43%68.97%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Kilmarnock (Visitante)

Previsão 13.94%7.17odd justa
EV -2.26%
Vantagem -0.322%
Kelly -0.376%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 7.01

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
13.12%14.04%13.78%15.11%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
6.006.576.507.0116.67%15.21%15.38%14.27%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 19.58%5.11odd justa
EV -2.12%
Vantagem -0.423%
Kelly -0.529%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
18.35%19.62%19.61%21.55%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.304.694.655.0023.26%21.31%21.51%20.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Hibernian (Local): 66.48%; Kilmarnock (Visitante): 13.94%; Empate: 19.58%. Para Empate, essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 5.11. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 5.00, com valor esperado de -2.12%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (54 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.41%EV -3.60%E -2.48%K -8.01%G +0.000%7.01I 14.27%NM 13.74%EV -2.26%E -0.322%K -0.376%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.85%EV -5.05%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-15 18:41
Svenska Spel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.32%EV -4.93%E -3.45%K -11.47%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -9.95%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-15 18:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.32%EV -4.93%E -3.45%K -11.47%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -9.95%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-15 18:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.18%EV -4.93%E -3.45%K -11.47%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -10.77%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -9.95%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-15 18:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.18%EV -4.93%E -3.45%K -11.47%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -10.77%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -9.95%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-15 18:05
Betsson🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.82%EV -4.93%E -3.45%K -11.47%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.63%EV -5.19%E -0.763%K -0.895%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.55%EV -15.82%E -3.68%K -4.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-15 18:35
NordicBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.82%EV -4.93%E -3.45%K -11.47%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.63%EV -5.19%E -0.763%K -0.895%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.55%EV -15.82%E -3.68%K -4.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-15 18:36
Coolbet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.26%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.64%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-15 17:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.56%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.54%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-15 17:44
DraftKings🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.30%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.48%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -4.07%E -0.832%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-15 17:45
LeoVegas🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.17%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%EV -12.86%E -2.06%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-15 17:45
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.88%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -13.86%E -3.15%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-15 18:41
Casumo🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -12.86%E -2.06%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -11.91%E -2.65%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:05
Grosvenor🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -12.86%E -2.06%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -11.91%E -2.65%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -12.86%E -2.06%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -11.91%E -2.65%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -12.86%E -2.06%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -11.91%E -2.65%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:05
betPARX🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -12.86%E -2.06%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -11.91%E -2.65%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:05
Unibet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -12.86%E -2.06%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -11.91%E -2.65%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:05
TABtouch🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%EV -5.60%E -3.94%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -12.86%E -2.06%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -11.91%E -2.65%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:05
1xBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.28%EV -6.26%E -4.44%K -15.27%G +0.000%6.86I 14.58%NM 13.62%EV -4.35%E -0.634%K -0.743%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.10%EV -8.97%E -1.93%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-15 18:40
Bovada🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.13%EV -6.26%E -4.44%K -15.27%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.69%EV -12.86%E -2.06%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.18%EV -10.93%E -2.40%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-15 18:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.30%EV -6.26%E -4.44%K -15.27%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.86%EV -14.95%E -2.45%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.84%EV -14.84%E -3.41%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-15 18:05
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-15 17:21
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-15 14:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-15 17:20
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-15 14:15
Fanatics🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-15 18:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.31%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -4.07%E -0.832%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-15 17:21
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.30%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.86%EV -5.19%E -0.763%K -0.895%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.84%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-15 14:16
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.30%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.86%EV -5.19%E -0.763%K -0.895%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.84%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-15 14:15
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -6.03%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-15 17:39
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -6.03%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-15 17:39
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.71%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -5.89%E -0.872%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -6.03%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-15 14:16
BetOnline.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.50%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.69%EV -5.19%E -0.763%K -0.895%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -7.99%E -1.70%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-15 18:41
LowVig.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.50%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.69%EV -5.19%E -0.763%K -0.895%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -7.99%E -1.70%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-15 18:40
BetUS🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.50%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.69%EV -5.19%E -0.763%K -0.895%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -7.99%E -1.70%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-15 18:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.43%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.85I 14.60%NM 13.58%EV -4.49%E -0.656%K -0.768%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.00%EV -8.97%E -1.93%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-15 18:34
Bet Right🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -7.01%E -1.48%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-15 17:20
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -7.01%E -1.48%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-15 17:41
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -9.95%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:15
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -9.95%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -9.95%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -9.95%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:16
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -16.34%E -2.72%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -11.91%E -2.65%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-15 17:50
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.30%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -16.34%E -2.72%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.69%EV -14.84%E -3.41%K -4.43%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-15 18:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.30%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -16.34%E -2.72%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.69%EV -14.84%E -3.41%K -4.43%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-15 18:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 65.20%EV -7.59%E -5.46%K -19.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV -16.34%E -2.72%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.70%EV -9.95%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-15 17:45
SportsBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.36%EV -8.26%E -5.98%K -21.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.28%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV -6.03%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-15 18:35
FanDuel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -9.59%E -7.05%K -26.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -6.03%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:35
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -9.59%E -7.05%K -26.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -2.40%E -0.343%K -0.400%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -7.01%E -1.48%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-15 18:35
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -9.59%E -7.05%K -26.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -9.37%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-15 18:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.57%EV -9.59%E -7.05%K -26.63%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.62%EV -14.95%E -2.45%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.82%EV -11.91%E -2.65%K -3.40%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-15 18:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.96%EV -10.25%E -7.59%K -29.29%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.69%EV -6.58%E -0.983%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%EV -2.12%E -0.423%K -0.529%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-15 17:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.02%EV -10.92%E -8.15%K -32.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.75%EV -16.34%E -2.72%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.23%EV -9.95%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-15 18:16
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.97%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.81%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.22%0.1%2026-09-15 18:41
Smarkets◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.75%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.10%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15%0.4%2026-09-15 18:41
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.75%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.10%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15%0.4%2026-09-15 18:41
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.75%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.10%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15%0.4%2026-09-15 18:41
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.75%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.10%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15%0.4%2026-09-15 18:41
Kalshi◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.30%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.88%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.83%1.0%2026-09-15 18:00