Language:English
Real Valladolid CF v Leganés
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Real Valladolid CF (Local)
Prediction 46.46%2.15fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -2.20%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.05%46.41%46.45%47.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.971.982.1056.18%50.66%50.38%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Leganés (Visit)
Prediction 25.28%3.96fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.357%
Kelly -0.480%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.89%25.34%25.28%26.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.593.583.9030.30%27.84%27.97%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.25%3.54fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -0.989%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.57%28.25%28.27%30.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.243.253.4236.36%30.82%30.77%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Valladolid CF (Local): 46.46%; Leganés (Visit): 25.28%; Draw: 28.25%. For Leganés (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.96. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.90, with an expected value of -1.39%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -2.42%E -1.15%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -8.98%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-14 04:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.71%EV -3.82%E -1.84%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.85%EV -1.64%E -0.423%K -0.569%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.44%EV -3.95%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.52%EV -4.75%E -2.32%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -5.18%E -1.38%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.05%EV -3.95%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-14 17:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.61%EV -4.75%E -2.32%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -7.71%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-13 21:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -4.75%E -2.32%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-14 17:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.21%E -2.56%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -8.98%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -3.95%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-14 16:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.21%E -2.56%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -8.98%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -3.95%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-14 16:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.21%E -2.56%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -8.98%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -3.95%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-14 16:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.21%E -2.56%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -8.98%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -3.95%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-14 16:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.21%E -2.56%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -8.98%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -3.95%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-14 16:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.06%EV -6.14%E -3.04%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.15%EV -4.42%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.79%EV -3.38%E -0.989%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-14 17:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.60%EV -7.07%E -3.54%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -1.39%E -0.357%K -0.480%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -3.95%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 17:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.60%EV -7.07%E -3.54%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -1.39%E -0.357%K -0.480%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -3.95%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 17:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -7.07%E -3.54%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -5.18%E -1.38%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -3.95%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-13 17:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -7.07%E -3.54%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -6.45%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-14 17:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.07%E -3.54%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -6.45%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-14 17:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.23%EV -7.07%E -3.54%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.33%EV -7.71%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-10 06:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.23%EV -7.07%E -3.54%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.33%EV -7.71%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-10 06:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -7.07%E -3.54%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%EV -10.24%E -2.88%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-14 16:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -7.07%E -3.54%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%EV -10.24%E -2.88%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-14 16:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -7.07%E -3.54%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%EV -10.24%E -2.88%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-14 16:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -7.07%E -3.54%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%EV -10.24%E -2.88%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-14 16:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -7.07%E -3.54%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.60%E -3.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-12 16:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.32%EV -7.07%E -3.54%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -11.01%E -3.49%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-14 17:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 46.30%EV -7.54%E -3.79%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.45%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.60%E -3.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-14 17:08 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 46.30%EV -7.54%E -3.79%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.45%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.60%E -3.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-14 17:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.08%EV -8.00%E -4.04%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.33%EV -6.95%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.58%EV -4.51%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-14 17:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.30%EV -8.47%E -4.30%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-14 16:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.30%EV -8.47%E -4.30%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-14 16:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.43%EV -8.93%E -4.56%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-13 20:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -9.39%E -4.82%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -6.45%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-13 21:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -9.39%E -4.82%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -3.92%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -9.60%E -3.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-14 10:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -9.39%E -4.82%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -6.45%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-13 23:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -9.39%E -4.82%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -8.98%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-13 21:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.81%EV -9.39%E -4.82%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -6.45%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -9.60%E -3.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-14 10:43 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -9.39%E -4.82%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -8.98%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -9.60%E -3.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-13 20:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.18%EV -9.39%E -4.82%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.10%EV -12.77%E -3.70%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-14 16:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.18%EV -9.39%E -4.82%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.10%EV -12.77%E -3.70%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-14 16:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -9.39%E -4.82%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.60%E -3.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-14 12:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -9.39%E -4.82%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.42%E -4.01%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-12 08:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -9.39%E -4.82%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.42%E -4.01%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-12 08:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -9.39%E -4.82%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.42%E -4.01%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-12 08:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -9.39%E -4.82%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.42%E -4.01%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-12 08:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.52%EV -10.79%E -5.62%K -11.73%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 25.30%EV -10.75%E -3.04%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 28.18%EV -10.44%E -3.29%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.67%EV -11.25%E -5.89%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.86%EV -9.60%E -3.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-14 14:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.26%EV -11.25%E -5.89%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.24%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.50%EV -12.42%E -4.01%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-03-13 21:30 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 46.39%EV -11.72%E -6.17%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.18%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.43%EV -12.42%E -4.01%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-03-14 17:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 46.08%EV -11.72%E -6.17%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.13%EV -15.30%E -4.57%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.79%EV -11.01%E -3.49%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-03-13 20:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 46.80%EV -13.11%E -7.01%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 25.15%EV -12.01%E -3.45%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.05%EV -11.86%E -3.80%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-03-14 17:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 46.61%EV -13.11%E -7.01%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.27%EV -12.77%E -3.70%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.12%EV -12.42%E -4.01%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-03-14 17:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 45.70%EV -14.97%E -8.18%K -18.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 23.89%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 30.41%EV -22.31%E -8.11%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 19.6% | 2026-03-13 21:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 46.89%EV -17.29%E -9.72%K -22.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.29%EV -16.56%E -5.02%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 27.82%EV -15.25%E -5.08%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 19.8% | 2026-03-14 16:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.91% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.26% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.83% | 0.5% | 2026-03-14 17:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.56% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.73% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.71% | 1.1% | 2026-03-14 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.87% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.53% | 1.6% | 2026-03-14 17:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.87% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.53% | 1.6% | 2026-03-14 17:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.87% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.53% | 1.6% | 2026-03-14 17:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.91% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.39% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.70% | 2.5% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |