Idioma:Español
Mallorca v AD Ceuta FC
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Mallorca (Local)
Predicción 67.62%1.48momio equitativo
EV -2.63%
Ventaja -1.82%
Kelly -5.97%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.44
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
64.19%67.58%67.55%69.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.301.371.371.4476.92%72.88%72.99%69.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
AD Ceuta FC (Visitante)
Predicción 12.83%7.79momio equitativo
EV +16.11%
Ventaja +1.78%
Kelly +2.00%
Crecimiento +0.322%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.05
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.51%12.85%12.91%14.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.806.926.909.0517.24%14.45%14.49%11.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 19.55%5.12momio equitativo
EV -2.26%
Ventaja -0.451%
Kelly -0.564%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.73%19.57%19.54%21.54%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.104.554.505.0024.39%21.99%22.22%20.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Mallorca (Local): 67.62%; AD Ceuta FC (Visitante): 12.83%; Empate: 19.55%. Para AD Ceuta FC (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 7.79. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 9.05, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +16.11%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.44%EV -6.01%E -4.32%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 9.05I 11.05%NM 10.51%EV +16.11%E +1.78%K +2.00%G +0.322% | 4.52I 22.12%NM 21.05%EV -11.64%E -2.58%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-30 16:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.04%E -5.91%K -22.32%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV +2.64%E +0.330%K +0.377%G +0.010% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -12.03%E -2.67%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.51%EV -10.74%E -8.14%K -33.56%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.76%EV +0.073%E +0.009%K +0.011%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.73%EV -4.21%E -0.859%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-30 16:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.78%EV -5.33%E -3.81%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.24%EV -0.568%E -0.073%K -0.084%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.98%EV -7.14%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 16:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.63%EV -8.04%E -5.91%K -22.32%G +0.000% | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.12%EV -1.21%E -0.157%K -0.181%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.25%EV -5.19%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 16:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.12%EV -4.65%E -3.30%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 7.58I 13.19%NM 12.67%EV -2.75%E -0.363%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV -2.26%E -0.451%K -0.564%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.50%EV -5.33%E -3.81%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -3.78%E -0.503%K -0.581%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -7.14%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-30 16:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.27%EV -8.04%E -5.91%K -22.32%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -3.78%E -0.503%K -0.581%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -6.17%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-30 16:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.24%EV -7.36%E -5.37%K -19.89%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -3.78%E -0.503%K -0.581%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -12.03%E -2.67%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-30 16:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -8.04%E -5.91%K -22.32%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -3.78%E -0.503%K -0.581%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -10.08%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-30 16:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.46%EV -9.39%E -7.01%K -27.61%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.23%EV -3.78%E -0.503%K -0.581%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.31%EV -7.14%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-30 16:45 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.62%EV -10.06%E -7.57%K -30.50%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -3.78%E -0.503%K -0.581%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.21%EV -7.14%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-30 16:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.62%EV -10.06%E -7.57%K -30.50%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -3.78%E -0.503%K -0.581%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.21%EV -7.14%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-30 16:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.09%EV -8.04%E -5.91%K -22.32%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -3.78%E -0.503%K -0.581%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -13.99%E -3.18%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.31%EV -5.33%E -3.81%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -10.19%E -1.46%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -4.21%E -0.859%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-30 16:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.88%EV -6.68%E -4.84%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -10.19%E -1.46%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -2.26%E -0.451%K -0.564%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-30 16:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -5.33%E -3.81%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -10.19%E -1.46%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -7.14%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-30 16:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -8.04%E -5.91%K -22.32%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -10.19%E -1.46%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.08%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -8.04%E -5.91%K -22.32%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -10.19%E -1.46%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -12.03%E -2.67%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-30 16:35 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -8.71%E -6.45%K -24.89%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -10.19%E -1.46%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -10.08%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.03%EV -10.06%E -7.57%K -30.50%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -10.19%E -1.46%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.05%EV -7.14%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.54%EV -6.68%E -4.84%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -10.19%E -1.46%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -17.89%E -4.26%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-30 16:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.79%EV -10.06%E -7.57%K -30.50%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.69%EV -10.19%E -1.46%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -15.35%E -3.55%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-30 16:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 67.81%EV -12.09%E -9.30%K -40.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.59%EV -10.19%E -1.46%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.59%EV -12.03%E -2.67%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-08-30 16:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 67.81%EV -12.09%E -9.30%K -40.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.59%EV -10.19%E -1.46%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.59%EV -12.03%E -2.67%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-08-30 16:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 67.54%EV -12.09%E -9.30%K -40.31%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 12.73%EV -11.47%E -1.66%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 19.73%EV -13.01%E -2.92%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-08-30 16:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.50%EV -5.33%E -3.81%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.69%EV -12.76%E -1.88%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -8.12%E -1.73%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.50%EV -5.33%E -3.81%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.69%EV -12.76%E -1.88%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -8.12%E -1.73%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.50%EV -5.33%E -3.81%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.69%EV -12.76%E -1.88%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -8.12%E -1.73%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.68%E -4.84%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -13.40%E -1.98%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -8.12%E -1.73%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.51%EV -8.71%E -6.45%K -24.89%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.50%EV -13.40%E -1.98%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -6.17%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 66.89%EV -12.09%E -9.30%K -40.31%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 12.88%EV -13.40%E -1.98%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.22%EV -15.94%E -3.71%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.87%EV -2.63%E -1.82%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -16.61%E -2.55%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -12.03%E -2.67%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.87%EV -2.63%E -1.82%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -16.61%E -2.55%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -12.03%E -2.67%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.87%EV -2.63%E -1.82%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -16.61%E -2.55%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -12.03%E -2.67%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 16:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.87%EV -2.63%E -1.82%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -16.61%E -2.55%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -12.03%E -2.67%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.87%EV -2.63%E -1.82%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -16.61%E -2.55%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -12.03%E -2.67%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.38%EV -6.68%E -4.84%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.88%EV -16.61%E -2.55%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.74%EV -14.96%E -3.44%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.86%EV -8.04%E -5.91%K -22.32%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -16.61%E -2.55%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -13.99%E -3.18%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-30 16:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.86%EV -8.04%E -5.91%K -22.32%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -16.61%E -2.55%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -13.99%E -3.18%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-30 16:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.86%EV -8.04%E -5.91%K -22.32%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -16.61%E -2.55%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -13.99%E -3.18%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-30 16:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.86%EV -8.04%E -5.91%K -22.32%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -16.61%E -2.55%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -13.99%E -3.18%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-30 16:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%EV -10.06%E -7.57%K -30.50%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.75%EV -16.61%E -2.55%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.02%EV -8.12%E -1.73%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.37%EV -4.65%E -3.30%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.52%EV -19.81%E -3.17%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -15.94%E -3.71%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.37%EV -4.65%E -3.30%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.52%EV -19.81%E -3.17%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -15.94%E -3.71%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.37%EV -4.65%E -3.30%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.52%EV -19.81%E -3.17%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -15.94%E -3.71%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-30 16:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.37%EV -4.65%E -3.30%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.52%EV -19.81%E -3.17%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -15.94%E -3.71%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-30 16:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 64.48%EV -6.68%E -4.84%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.59%EV -21.74%E -3.56%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.94%EV -16.92%E -3.98%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 64.32%EV -6.68%E -4.84%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.55%EV -21.74%E -3.56%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.13%EV -17.89%E -4.26%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 64.32%EV -6.68%E -4.84%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.55%EV -21.74%E -3.56%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.13%EV -17.89%E -4.26%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 64.19%EV -9.39%E -7.01%K -27.61%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 14.83%EV -25.59%E -4.41%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 20.98%EV -19.85%E -4.84%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.71% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.25% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.04% | 1.0% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.71% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.25% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.04% | 1.0% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.71% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.25% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.04% | 1.0% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.71% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.25% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.04% | 1.0% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.24% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.62% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.14% | 2.4% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.91% | 8.33I 12.00%NM 11.66% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.43% | 2.9% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |