La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Málaga v Real Valladolid CF
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Málaga (Local)
Predicción 43.45%2.30momio equitativo
EV -3.55%
Ventaja -1.60%
Kelly -2.91%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.22
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.29%43.38%43.44%46.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.942.072.052.2251.55%48.31%48.78%45.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Real Valladolid CF (Visitante)
Predicción 27.24%3.67momio equitativo
EV +2.15%
Ventaja +0.574%
Kelly +0.782%
Crecimiento +0.017%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.92%27.33%27.21%28.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.423.403.7534.72%29.24%29.41%26.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 29.31%3.41momio equitativo
EV -1.21%
Ventaja -0.359%
Kelly -0.511%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.37
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.01%29.29%29.35%30.68%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.753.143.153.3736.36%31.84%31.75%29.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -12.24%E -6.06%K -12.00%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV +2.15%E +0.574%K +0.782%G +0.017% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.26%E -0.989%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-07 19:40 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -12.24%E -6.06%K -12.00%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV +2.15%E +0.574%K +0.782%G +0.017% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.26%E -0.989%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-07 19:40 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -12.24%E -6.06%K -12.00%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV +2.15%E +0.574%K +0.782%G +0.017% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.26%E -0.989%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-07 19:40 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -12.24%E -6.06%K -12.00%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV +2.15%E +0.574%K +0.782%G +0.017% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.26%E -0.989%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-07 19:39 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -12.24%E -6.06%K -12.00%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV +2.15%E +0.574%K +0.782%G +0.017% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.26%E -0.989%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-07 19:40 |
| Pinnacle | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.52%EV -3.55%E -1.60%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.47%EV -0.572%E -0.157%K -0.216%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 30.01%EV -5.61%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-07 19:25 |
| Grosvenor | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.60%EV -14.41%E -7.32%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -0.572%E -0.157%K -0.216%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -4.73%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-07 19:40 |
| TABtouch | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.60%EV -14.41%E -7.32%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -0.572%E -0.157%K -0.216%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -4.73%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-07 19:39 |
| Casumo | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.60%EV -14.41%E -7.32%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -0.572%E -0.157%K -0.216%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -4.73%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-07 19:39 |
| betPARX | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.60%EV -14.41%E -7.32%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -0.572%E -0.157%K -0.216%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -4.73%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-07 19:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.52%EV -14.85%E -7.57%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -0.572%E -0.157%K -0.216%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -6.19%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-07 19:40 |
| LeoVegas | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.65%EV -15.28%E -7.84%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.92%EV -0.572%E -0.157%K -0.216%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -6.19%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-07 19:40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.41%EV -15.72%E -8.10%K -16.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.01%EV -1.93%E -0.537%K -0.744%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -7.66%E -2.43%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-07 19:40 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.41%EV -15.72%E -8.10%K -16.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.01%EV -1.93%E -0.537%K -0.744%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -7.66%E -2.43%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-07 19:40 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.79%EV -3.55%E -1.60%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -4.66%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.06%EV -7.37%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.79%EV -3.55%E -1.60%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -4.66%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.06%EV -7.37%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 19:24 |
| Fanatics | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.59%E -3.07%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.66%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.19%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-07 19:05 |
| FanDuel | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.59%E -3.07%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -4.66%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.13%E -2.94%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-07 19:54 |
| Tipico (DE) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -4.66%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.13%E -2.94%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-07 19:09 |
| SportsBet | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -4.66%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.06%E -4.02%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-07 19:50 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.35%EV -6.59%E -3.07%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.78%EV -5.20%E -1.50%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.87%EV -8.54%E -2.74%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-07 19:49 |
| 1xBet | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.38%EV -7.03%E -3.28%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.45%EV -5.75%E -1.66%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.18%EV -1.21%E -0.359%K -0.511%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 19:54 |
| DraftKings | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -4.42%E -2.01%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -6.02%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -6.19%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 19:10 |
| BetAnything | 2.13I 46.95%NM 43.18%EV -7.46%E -3.50%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -6.02%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -10.59%E -3.47%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 19:24 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.59%E -3.07%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.38%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -9.13%E -2.94%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-07 19:54 |
| Betsson | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -7.38%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.19%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-07 19:14 |
| NordicBet | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -7.38%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.19%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-07 19:14 |
| Paddy Power | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.38%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -12.06%E -4.02%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-07 19:50 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.84%EV -9.63%E -4.63%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.22%EV -8.74%E -2.61%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.95%EV -7.66%E -2.43%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-07 19:15 |
| Betr (AU) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.59%E -3.07%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -3.26%E -0.989%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 19:15 |
| Betway | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -4.42%E -2.01%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -9.13%E -2.94%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-07 19:15 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -10.94%E -5.34%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -4.73%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-07 19:14 |
| BetMGM | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -9.13%E -2.94%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-07 19:24 |
| William Hill | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -12.06%E -4.02%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-07 19:55 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.17%EV -12.24%E -6.06%K -12.00%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -9.13%E -2.94%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-07 19:39 |
| Sky Bet | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -14.99%E -5.17%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-07 19:50 |
| BoyleSports | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -10.94%E -5.34%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -12.06%E -4.02%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-07 19:30 |
| Parions Sport (FR) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -13.11%E -6.55%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -9.13%E -2.94%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-03-07 19:15 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -4.42%E -2.01%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -11.47%E -3.53%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -4.73%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-07 19:30 |
| theScore Bet | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.05%EV -6.59%E -3.07%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -11.47%E -3.53%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -4.73%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-07 19:30 |
| Bet Victor | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -11.47%E -3.53%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -6.19%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 19:14 |
| PlayUp | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -6.59%E -3.07%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -11.47%E -3.53%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -12.06%E -4.02%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-07 19:04 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.97I 50.76%NM 44.53%EV -14.41%E -7.32%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.99%EV -11.47%E -3.53%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 28.48%EV -9.71%E -3.15%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-03-07 19:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.94%E -5.34%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -12.83%E -4.01%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -9.13%E -2.94%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-03-07 19:05 |
| Coral | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.94%E -5.34%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -12.83%E -4.01%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -9.13%E -2.94%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-03-07 19:04 |
| Neds | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.94%E -5.34%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -12.83%E -4.01%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -9.13%E -2.94%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-03-07 19:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.94%E -5.34%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -12.83%E -4.01%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -9.13%E -2.94%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-03-07 19:05 |
| NetBet (FR) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.64%EV -13.11%E -6.55%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -12.83%E -4.01%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.09%EV -12.06%E -4.02%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-03-07 19:45 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.86%EV -13.11%E -6.55%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.85%EV -14.19%E -4.51%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -9.13%E -2.94%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-03-07 19:14 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 42.95%EV -15.28%E -7.84%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 26.59%EV -14.19%E -4.51%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 30.46%EV -19.39%E -7.05%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 19.4% | 2026-03-07 19:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 41.29%EV -13.11%E -6.55%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 28.68%EV -21.55%E -7.48%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 30.03%EV -19.39%E -7.05%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 21.1% | 2026-03-07 19:09 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.28% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17% | 0.4% | 2026-03-07 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.28% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17% | 0.4% | 2026-03-07 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.28% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17% | 0.4% | 2026-03-07 19:54 |
| Matchbook | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.28% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17% | 0.4% | 2026-03-07 19:50 |
| Smarkets | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.54% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63% | 0.7% | 2026-03-07 19:55 |
| Kalshi | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.68% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.20% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.12% | 3.1% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |