Language:English
Málaga v Almería
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Málaga (Local)
Prediction 42.57%2.35fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -2.65%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.20%42.61%42.57%43.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.162.152.2750.00%46.29%46.51%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Almería (Visit)
Prediction 28.04%3.57fair odd
EV +1.21%
Edge +0.336%
Kelly +0.465%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 3.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.28%28.12%27.96%30.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.273.303.6133.33%30.57%30.30%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.39%3.40fair odd
EV -0.063%
Edge -0.019%
Kelly -0.026%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.76%29.27%29.47%31.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.633.133.103.4038.02%31.91%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Málaga (Local): 42.57%; Almería (Visit): 28.04%; Draw: 29.39%. For Almería (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.57. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.21%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.32%EV -6.77%E -3.09%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.61I 27.70%NM 26.28%EV +1.21%E +0.336%K +0.465%G +0.006% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.41%EV -8.29%E -2.66%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.60%EV -3.37%E -1.48%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.47%EV -1.31%E -0.372%K -0.519%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.94%EV -5.06%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.72%EV -3.37%E -1.48%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.71%EV -1.87%E -0.534%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.57%EV -3.59%E -1.09%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70%EV -5.07%E -2.27%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.30%EV -4.47%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70%EV -5.07%E -2.27%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.30%EV -4.47%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.22%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.94%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.94%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.94%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.99%EV -4.64%E -2.07%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.99%EV -4.64%E -2.07%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -7.41%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -7.48%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -0.063%E -0.019%K -0.026%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.48%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.48%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.94%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -7.48%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.41%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -7.48%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.41%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -7.48%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.41%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -7.48%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.41%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.48%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.76%EV -8.90%E -4.16%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -7.48%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -7.48%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -9.75%E -4.60%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -9.75%E -4.60%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -9.75%E -4.60%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -12.73%E -6.21%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-06-14 18:58 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.96%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 27.93%EV -9.44%E -2.92%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.10%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -10.28%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -3.00%E -0.910%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -10.28%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -4.47%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -10.28%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -5.94%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -10.28%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -3.00%E -0.910%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 42.72%EV -12.31%E -5.97%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.94%EV -11.68%E -3.71%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.34%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 42.48%EV -11.88%E -5.74%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.91%EV -11.68%E -3.71%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 29.61%EV -12.70%E -4.28%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -13.08%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -4.47%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -13.08%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -13.08%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -13.08%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -13.08%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -13.08%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -13.08%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -5.94%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 41.20%EV -14.86%E -7.43%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 27.47%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 31.33%EV -22.70%E -8.63%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 21.4% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.95% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.30% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.75% | 0.4% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.16% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64% | 0.7% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.16% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64% | 0.7% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.00% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.47% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52% | 1.1% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.81% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.35% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.84% | 1.6% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.15% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41% | 2.1% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |