La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Málaga v Almería
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Málaga (Local)
Predicción 42.57%2.35momio equitativo
EV -3.37%
Ventaja -1.48%
Kelly -2.65%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.27
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.20%42.61%42.57%43.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.162.152.2750.00%46.29%46.51%44.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Almería (Visitante)
Predicción 28.04%3.57momio equitativo
EV +1.21%
Ventaja +0.336%
Kelly +0.465%
Crecimiento +0.006%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.61
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.28%28.12%27.96%30.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.273.303.6133.33%30.57%30.30%27.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 29.39%3.40momio equitativo
EV -0.063%
Ventaja -0.019%
Kelly -0.026%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.76%29.27%29.47%31.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.633.133.103.4038.02%31.91%32.26%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (44 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.32%EV -6.77%E -3.09%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.61I 27.70%NM 26.28%EV +1.21%E +0.336%K +0.465%G +0.006% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.41%EV -8.29%E -2.66%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| Pinnacle | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.60%EV -3.37%E -1.48%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.47%EV -1.31%E -0.372%K -0.519%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.94%EV -5.06%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.72%EV -3.37%E -1.48%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.71%EV -1.87%E -0.534%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.57%EV -3.59%E -1.09%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70%EV -5.07%E -2.27%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.30%EV -4.47%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70%EV -5.07%E -2.27%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.30%EV -4.47%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Bovada | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.22%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Unibet | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.94%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.94%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.94%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.99%EV -4.64%E -2.07%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.99%EV -4.64%E -2.07%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| DraftKings | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -7.41%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| FanDuel | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| Coolbet | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -7.48%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -0.063%E -0.019%K -0.026%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| Betway | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.48%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| theScore Bet | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.48%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.94%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Grosvenor | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -7.48%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.41%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Casumo | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -7.48%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.41%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| TABtouch | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -7.48%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.41%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| betPARX | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -7.48%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.41%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| SportsBet | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.48%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.76%EV -8.90%E -4.16%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -7.48%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Paddy Power | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -7.48%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -9.75%E -4.60%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -9.75%E -4.60%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| LeoVegas | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -9.75%E -4.60%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Sky Bet | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -12.73%E -6.21%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-06-14 18:58 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.96%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 27.93%EV -9.44%E -2.92%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.10%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| Betr (AU) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -10.28%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -3.00%E -0.910%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -10.28%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -4.47%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| betfred_uk | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -10.28%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -5.94%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| Bet Victor | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -10.28%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -3.00%E -0.910%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| PMU (FR) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 42.72%EV -12.31%E -5.97%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.94%EV -11.68%E -3.71%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.34%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| NetBet (FR) | 2.07I 48.31%NM 42.48%EV -11.88%E -5.74%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.91%EV -11.68%E -3.71%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 29.61%EV -12.70%E -4.28%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -13.08%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -4.47%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -13.08%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| Neds | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -13.08%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| Coral | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -13.08%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -13.08%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| BetMGM | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -13.08%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| BoyleSports | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -13.08%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-06-14 18:59 |
| William Hill | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -5.94%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 41.20%EV -14.86%E -7.43%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 27.47%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 31.33%EV -22.70%E -8.63%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 21.4% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.95% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.30% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.75% | 0.4% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.16% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64% | 0.7% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.16% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64% | 0.7% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.00% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.47% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52% | 1.1% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Smarkets | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.81% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.35% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.84% | 1.6% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |
| Kalshi | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.15% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41% | 2.1% | 2026-06-14 19:00 |