Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Las Palmas v Albacete

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 19:30 UTC

Final: Las Palmas 2–1 Albacete

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Las Palmas (Local)

Prediction 47.63%2.10fair odd
EV -3.78%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -3.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.78%47.71%47.59%50.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.891.912.0259.52%52.85%52.36%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Albacete (Visit)

Prediction 24.90%4.02fair odd
EV +5.83%
Edge +1.37%
Kelly +1.79%
Growth +0.104%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.96%24.83%24.89%26.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.783.754.2528.57%26.45%26.67%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.47%3.64fair odd
EV -3.87%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.50%27.46%27.52%28.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.333.303.5032.26%30.06%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Las Palmas (Local): 47.63%; Albacete (Visit): 24.90%; Draw: 27.47%. For Albacete (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.02. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.83%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -12.83%E -7.01%K -15.46%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.96%EV +5.83%E +1.37%K +1.79%G +0.104%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -5.24%E -1.52%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 19:05
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -12.83%E -7.01%K -15.46%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.96%EV +5.83%E +1.37%K +1.79%G +0.104%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -5.24%E -1.52%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 19:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -12.83%E -7.01%K -15.46%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.96%EV +5.83%E +1.37%K +1.79%G +0.104%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -5.24%E -1.52%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 19:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -12.83%E -7.01%K -15.46%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.96%EV +5.83%E +1.37%K +1.79%G +0.104%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -5.24%E -1.52%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 19:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -12.83%E -7.01%K -15.46%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.96%EV +5.83%E +1.37%K +1.79%G +0.104%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -5.24%E -1.52%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 19:04
Grosvenor🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.88%EV -15.21%E -8.55%K -19.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.09%EV +2.09%E +0.510%K +0.675%G +0.014%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -7.99%E -2.38%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-16 19:05
Casumo🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.88%EV -15.21%E -8.55%K -19.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.09%EV +2.09%E +0.510%K +0.675%G +0.014%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -7.99%E -2.38%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-16 19:05
TABtouch🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.88%EV -15.21%E -8.55%K -19.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.09%EV +2.09%E +0.510%K +0.675%G +0.014%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -7.99%E -2.38%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-16 19:04
betPARX🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.88%EV -15.21%E -8.55%K -19.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.09%EV +2.09%E +0.510%K +0.675%G +0.014%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -7.99%E -2.38%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-16 19:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.68%EV -16.17%E -9.19%K -21.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -0.399%E -0.100%K -0.133%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-16 19:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.82%EV -16.64%E -9.51%K -22.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.23%EV -0.399%E -0.100%K -0.133%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.95%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-16 19:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.82%EV -16.64%E -9.51%K -22.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.23%EV -0.399%E -0.100%K -0.133%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.95%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-16 19:05
Pinnacle🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.76%EV -4.26%E -2.12%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.49%EV -2.39%E -0.610%K -0.819%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.75%EV -4.96%E -1.43%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-16 19:19
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.34%EV -9.02%E -4.72%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -2.89%E -0.741%K -0.996%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-16 19:23
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.47%EV -9.50%E -5.00%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -2.89%E -0.741%K -0.996%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-16 19:19
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 50.77%EV -19.98%E -11.89%K -29.38%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.15%EV -4.13%E -1.07%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.08%EV -13.48%E -4.28%K -6.27%G +0.000%17.2%2026-08-16 19:04
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.75%EV -5.21%E -2.62%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.87%EV -4.88%E -1.28%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.38%EV -4.69%E -1.35%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 19:20
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.48%EV -4.73%E -2.37%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.99%EV -5.38%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.53%EV -5.24%E -1.52%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 19:19
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -4.73%E -2.37%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -5.38%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -6.61%E -1.94%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-16 19:25
SportsBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -9.02%E -4.72%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -5.38%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -10.73%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-16 19:24
Coolbet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -3.78%E -1.87%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.46%EV -6.62%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -3.87%E -1.10%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-16 19:24
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.12%E -3.65%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -6.62%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.61%E -1.94%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-16 19:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.09%EV -9.02%E -4.72%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -6.62%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.42%EV -7.99%E -2.38%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-16 19:24
BetAnything🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.09%EV -9.02%E -4.72%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -6.62%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.42%EV -7.99%E -2.38%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-16 19:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.48%EV -10.45%E -5.56%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.31%EV -6.62%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -7.99%E -2.38%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-16 19:24
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.01%EV -10.93%E -5.84%K -12.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.94%EV -6.62%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -12.11%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-16 19:24
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.96%EV -12.83%E -7.01%K -15.46%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -6.62%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-16 19:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.34%EV -6.16%E -3.13%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.07%EV -7.37%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.59%EV -7.16%E -2.12%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 19:25
Bovada🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.34%EV -7.59%E -3.91%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-16 19:23
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.60%EV -8.55%E -4.45%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.70%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-16 19:19
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.60%EV -8.55%E -4.45%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.70%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-16 19:20
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.81%EV -7.12%E -3.65%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -12.11%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-16 19:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.59%EV -11.40%E -6.13%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.43%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -7.99%E -2.38%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-16 19:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.69%EV -11.88%E -6.42%K -13.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.85%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.46%EV -14.85%E -4.79%K -7.07%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-16 19:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.57%EV -9.02%E -4.72%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-16 19:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.97%EV -10.45%E -5.56%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.71%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-16 19:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -4.73%E -2.37%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -3.87%E -1.10%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-16 19:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.12%E -3.65%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -6.61%E -1.94%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-16 19:25
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.12%E -3.65%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -6.61%E -1.94%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-16 19:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -4.73%E -2.37%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -10.73%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-16 19:24
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -7.12%E -3.65%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-16 19:24
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -7.12%E -3.65%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-16 19:23
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -7.12%E -3.65%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-16 19:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.11%EV -9.50%E -5.00%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -5.24%E -1.52%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-16 19:19
NetBet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.28%EV -12.83%E -7.01%K -15.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.54%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.18%EV -10.73%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-16 19:24
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.38%EV -11.88%E -6.42%K -13.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.35%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.27%EV -14.85%E -4.79%K -7.07%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-16 19:24
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -7.12%E -3.65%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -6.61%E -1.94%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-16 19:24
PlayUp🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.78%EV -5.69%E -2.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -12.11%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-16 19:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.66%EV -10.45%E -5.56%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -7.99%E -2.38%K -3.40%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-16 19:20
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.67%EV -9.02%E -4.72%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.86%EV -12.11%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-16 19:25
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.67%EV -9.02%E -4.72%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.86%EV -12.11%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-16 19:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.67%EV -9.02%E -4.72%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.86%EV -12.11%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-16 19:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.67%EV -9.02%E -4.72%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.86%EV -12.11%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-16 19:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%1.0%2026-08-16 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%1.0%2026-08-16 19:25
Matchbook2.08I 48.08%NM 47.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%1.0%2026-08-16 19:25
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 48.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%1.0%2026-08-16 19:25
Smarkets2.06I 48.54%NM 47.82%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.15%1.5%2026-08-16 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.26%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.01%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.73%1.6%2026-08-16 19:25