The School of Odds
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Celta Fortuna v Tenerife

2026-10-19 18:30 UTC — La Liga 2 - Spain

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Celta Fortuna (Local)

Prediction 34.99%2.86fair odd
EV +3.21%
Edge +1.09%
Kelly +1.65%
Growth +0.053%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.55%35.16%35.00%36.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.702.652.9540.82%36.99%37.74%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tenerife (Visit)

Prediction 35.99%2.78fair odd
EV +0.040%
Edge +0.014%
Kelly +0.022%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.91%35.91%35.94%39.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.442.452.7846.08%40.94%40.82%35.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.03%3.45fair odd
EV -1.31%
Edge -0.385%
Kelly -0.545%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.82%28.94%29.06%29.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.173.203.4034.48%31.57%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Celta Fortuna (Local): 34.99%; Tenerife (Visit): 35.99%; Draw: 29.03%. For Celta Fortuna (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.86. 4 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.95, producing a positive expected value of +3.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV +3.21%E +1.09%K +1.65%G +0.053%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.38%EV -14.35%E -6.03%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.66%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-12 19:15
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV +3.21%E +1.09%K +1.65%G +0.053%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.38%EV -14.35%E -6.03%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.66%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-12 19:14
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV +3.21%E +1.09%K +1.65%G +0.053%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.38%EV -14.35%E -6.03%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.66%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-12 19:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV +3.21%E +1.09%K +1.65%G +0.053%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.38%EV -14.35%E -6.03%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.66%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-12 19:14
TABtouch🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -0.285%E -0.100%K -0.154%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -17.23%E -7.49%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -8.57%E -2.72%K -3.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-12 19:15
Casumo🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -0.285%E -0.100%K -0.154%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -17.23%E -7.49%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -8.57%E -2.72%K -3.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-12 19:14
Grosvenor🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -0.285%E -0.100%K -0.154%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -17.23%E -7.49%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -8.57%E -2.72%K -3.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-12 19:15
betPARX🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -0.285%E -0.100%K -0.154%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -17.23%E -7.49%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -8.57%E -2.72%K -3.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-12 19:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.55%EV -0.285%E -0.100%K -0.154%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.44%EV -17.95%E -7.87%K -14.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-12 19:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.55%EV -0.285%E -0.100%K -0.154%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.44%EV -17.95%E -7.87%K -14.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-12 19:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -2.03%E -0.727%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -19.03%E -8.46%K -15.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-12 19:14
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.59%EV -3.78%E -1.38%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.82%EV -4.21%E -1.28%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-12 16:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -5.53%E -2.05%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%EV -8.24%E -3.23%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -1.31%E -0.385%K -0.545%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-12 15:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -5.53%E -2.05%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -10.04%E -4.01%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.11%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-12 17:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.65%EV -5.53%E -2.05%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 39.38%EV -21.91%E -10.10%K -18.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.97%EV -14.37%E -4.87%K -7.37%G +0.000%17.0%2026-10-12 19:14
1xBet🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 36.07%EV -6.93%E -2.61%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.02%EV -1.40%E -0.511%K -0.805%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.90%EV -3.63%E -1.09%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-12 19:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.93%EV -7.28%E -2.75%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -10.04%E -4.01%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -4.21%E -1.28%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-12 18:40
SportsBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.67%EV -7.28%E -2.75%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -11.84%E -4.83%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -4.21%E -1.28%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-12 19:19
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.67%EV -7.28%E -2.75%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -11.84%E -4.83%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -4.21%E -1.28%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-12 19:18
Betsson🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.39%EV -7.28%E -2.75%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -8.24%E -3.23%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.88%EV -11.47%E -3.76%K -5.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-12 15:40
NordicBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.39%EV -7.28%E -2.75%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -8.24%E -3.23%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.88%EV -11.47%E -3.76%K -5.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-12 15:40
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -8.33%E -3.18%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -10.04%E -4.01%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -5.66%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-12 15:50
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -8.33%E -3.18%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -10.04%E -4.01%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.02%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-12 16:35
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.51%EV -8.33%E -3.18%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.67%EV -13.63%E -5.68%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -5.66%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-12 19:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.82%EV -9.03%E -3.47%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -8.24%E -3.23%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.68%EV -11.47%E -3.76%K -5.59%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-12 19:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.36%EV -9.03%E -3.47%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 36.16%EV -11.12%E -4.50%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 29.48%EV -12.05%E -3.98%K -5.94%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-12 15:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.09%EV -9.73%E -3.77%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.00%EV -4.28%E -1.61%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.91%EV -6.53%E -2.03%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-12 19:15
Pinnacle🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.82%EV -10.43%E -4.07%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.91%EV +0.040%E +0.014%K +0.022%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.27%EV -6.53%E -2.03%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-12 19:30
betano_uk🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -10.78%E -4.23%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -8.24%E -3.23%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -7.11%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-12 19:18
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -10.78%E -4.23%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -8.24%E -3.23%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -7.11%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-12 19:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.21%EV -12.53%E -5.01%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.93%EV -11.84%E -4.83%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.86%EV -11.47%E -3.76%K -5.59%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-12 16:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 33.35%EV -12.53%E -5.01%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 37.90%EV -20.83%E -9.47%K -17.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.75%EV -15.82%E -5.46%K -8.33%G +0.000%19.9%2026-10-12 15:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.24%EV -14.28%E -5.83%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.98%EV -13.63%E -5.68%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.78%EV -12.92%E -4.31%K -6.46%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-12 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.48I 40.32%NM 34.72%2.42I 41.32%NM 35.58%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.69%16.1%2026-10-12 15:40
Arbitrage (12 combinations) +0.72%Unibet (SE) 2.95 (34.1%) / Pinnacle 2.78 (36.2%) / Betr (AU) 3.40 (29.6%)Show all 12 combinations
Celta Fortuna (Local)Tenerife (Visit)DrawMargin
Unibet (SE)🎯 2.95 (34.1%)Pinnacle🎯 2.78 (36.2%)Betr (AU)🎯 3.40 (29.6%)+0.724%
Unibet🎯 2.95 (34.1%)Pinnacle🎯 2.78 (36.2%)Betr (AU)🎯 3.40 (29.6%)+0.724%
Svenska Spel🎯 2.95 (34.1%)Pinnacle🎯 2.78 (36.2%)Betr (AU)🎯 3.40 (29.6%)+0.724%
ATG (SE)🎯 2.95 (34.1%)Pinnacle🎯 2.78 (36.2%)Betr (AU)🎯 3.40 (29.6%)+0.724%
Unibet (SE)🎯 2.95 (34.0%)1xBet🎯 2.74 (36.6%)Betr (AU)🎯 3.40 (29.5%)+0.194%
Unibet🎯 2.95 (34.0%)1xBet🎯 2.74 (36.6%)Betr (AU)🎯 3.40 (29.5%)+0.194%
Svenska Spel🎯 2.95 (34.0%)1xBet🎯 2.74 (36.6%)Betr (AU)🎯 3.40 (29.5%)+0.194%
ATG (SE)🎯 2.95 (34.0%)1xBet🎯 2.74 (36.6%)Betr (AU)🎯 3.40 (29.5%)+0.194%
Unibet (SE)🎯 2.95 (33.9%)Pinnacle🎯 2.78 (36.0%)1xBet🎯 3.32 (30.1%)+0.010%
Unibet🎯 2.95 (33.9%)Pinnacle🎯 2.78 (36.0%)1xBet🎯 3.32 (30.1%)+0.010%
Svenska Spel🎯 2.95 (33.9%)Pinnacle🎯 2.78 (36.0%)1xBet🎯 3.32 (30.1%)+0.010%
ATG (SE)🎯 2.95 (33.9%)Pinnacle🎯 2.78 (36.0%)1xBet🎯 3.32 (30.1%)+0.010%