Language:English
Almería v Las Palmas
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Almería (Local)
Prediction 51.89%1.93fair odd
EV -3.99%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -4.70%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.21%51.82%51.95%52.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.781.781.8559.88%56.06%56.18%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Las Palmas (Visit)
Prediction 23.44%4.27fair odd
EV +4.55%
Edge +1.02%
Kelly +1.31%
Growth +0.060%
assuming max odds 4.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.32%23.52%23.38%25.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.883.884.4628.17%25.76%25.81%22.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.66%4.05fair odd
EV -1.34%
Edge -0.336%
Kelly -0.448%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.68%24.65%24.68%26.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.673.674.0029.41%27.22%27.21%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Almería (Local): 51.89%; Las Palmas (Visit): 23.44%; Draw: 24.66%. For Las Palmas (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.27. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.46, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.55%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.26%EV -5.55%E -3.05%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 4.46I 22.42%NM 21.32%EV +4.55%E +1.02%K +1.31%G +0.060% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -11.21%E -3.11%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-16 16:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.72%EV -5.03%E -2.75%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 4.22I 23.70%NM 22.86%EV -1.08%E -0.256%K -0.335%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.42%EV -2.58%E -0.652%K -0.873%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-16 16:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.64%EV -8.15%E -4.60%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -1.55%E -0.369%K -0.484%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -8.74%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-16 16:28 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.99%EV -8.67%E -4.92%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.47%EV -2.72%E -0.655%K -0.863%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.28%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-16 16:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.28%EV -6.59%E -3.66%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -3.89%E -0.949%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -6.28%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.64%EV -9.18%E -5.25%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -3.89%E -0.949%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -8.74%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.64%EV -9.18%E -5.25%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -3.89%E -0.949%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -8.74%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.67%EV -9.18%E -5.25%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.76%EV -5.06%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -7.51%E -2.00%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-16 16:28 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.59%E -3.66%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -1.34%E -0.336%K -0.448%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -6.59%E -3.66%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -6.28%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.43%EV -7.63%E -4.29%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -5.04%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.43%EV -7.63%E -4.29%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -5.04%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.43%EV -7.63%E -4.29%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -5.04%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-16 16:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -10.22%E -5.91%K -14.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -7.51%E -2.00%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -9.18%E -5.25%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -11.21%E -3.11%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-16 16:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.27%EV -10.22%E -5.91%K -14.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -11.21%E -3.11%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -9.18%E -5.25%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -13.68%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.49%EV -6.59%E -3.66%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -7.41%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -8.74%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-16 16:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.49%EV -6.59%E -3.66%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -7.41%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -8.74%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-16 16:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -3.99%E -2.16%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -8.74%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -3.99%E -2.16%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -8.74%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -3.99%E -2.16%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -8.74%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -3.99%E -2.16%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -8.74%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -3.99%E -2.16%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -8.74%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.60%EV -10.22%E -5.91%K -14.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.89%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -13.68%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 52.10%EV -13.34%E -7.99%K -19.90%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.31%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.59%EV -16.14%E -4.75%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.47%EV -3.99%E -2.16%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -9.75%E -2.53%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -1.34%E -0.336%K -0.448%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-16 16:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.25%EV -8.15%E -4.60%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.56%EV -9.75%E -2.53%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -11.21%E -3.11%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.68%EV -10.22%E -5.91%K -14.00%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 23.34%EV -10.22%E -2.67%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 24.97%EV -11.70%E -3.27%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-16 16:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.57%EV -5.55%E -3.05%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -9.98%E -2.73%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.57%EV -5.55%E -3.05%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -9.98%E -2.73%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.57%EV -5.55%E -3.05%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -9.98%E -2.73%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.57%EV -5.55%E -3.05%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -9.98%E -2.73%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -6.59%E -3.66%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -11.21%E -3.11%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-16 16:28 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.23%EV -5.55%E -3.05%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -3.81%E -0.977%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-16 16:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.61%EV -5.03%E -2.75%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -7.51%E -2.00%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -6.59%E -3.66%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -7.51%E -2.00%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-16 16:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.37%EV -6.07%E -3.35%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.31%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -11.21%E -3.11%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -6.59%E -3.66%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -11.21%E -3.11%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.10%EV -8.15%E -4.60%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.78%EV -9.98%E -2.73%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.85%EV -9.18%E -5.25%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -13.68%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.85%EV -9.18%E -5.25%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -13.68%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-16 16:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.85%EV -9.18%E -5.25%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -13.68%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-16 16:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.85%EV -9.18%E -5.25%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -13.68%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.60%EV -5.03%E -2.75%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -13.27%E -3.59%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -6.28%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-16 16:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.44%EV -7.63%E -4.29%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.27%EV -13.27%E -3.59%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.29%EV -12.44%E -3.50%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.44%EV -7.63%E -4.29%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.27%EV -13.27%E -3.59%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.29%EV -12.44%E -3.50%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 51.37%EV -12.30%E -7.28%K -17.82%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.46%EV -13.27%E -3.59%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.16%EV -14.91%E -4.32%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-05-16 16:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.34%EV -6.59%E -3.66%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.83%EV -14.44%E -3.96%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.83%EV -9.98%E -2.73%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 50.66%EV -9.70%E -5.58%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.15%EV -14.44%E -3.96%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.19%EV -13.68%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.50%EV -10.22%E -5.91%K -14.00%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -15.61%E -4.34%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.76%EV -7.51%E -2.00%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-16 16:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.21%EV -8.67%E -4.92%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.89%EV -16.78%E -4.73%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.89%EV -12.44%E -3.50%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.36% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.69% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.95% | 0.2% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.36% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.69% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.95% | 0.2% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.89% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.62% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.50% | 0.6% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.11% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.07% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.83% | 0.7% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.60% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.86% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.55% | 1.7% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.99% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.46% | 2.0% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |