Language:English
AD Ceuta FC v Málaga
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
AD Ceuta FC (Local)
Prediction 23.10%4.33fair odd
EV +0.251%
Edge +0.058%
Kelly +0.075%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.98%23.11%23.09%24.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.004.004.3428.57%24.99%25.00%23.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Málaga (Visit)
Prediction 53.72%1.86fair odd
EV -3.30%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -4.12%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.18%53.74%53.66%55.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.721.721.8061.73%58.20%58.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.18%4.31fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.353%
Kelly -0.461%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.33%23.15%23.24%25.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.883.854.2530.30%25.78%25.97%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AD Ceuta FC (Local): 23.10%; Málaga (Visit): 53.72%; Draw: 23.18%. For AD Ceuta FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.33. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.34, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.251%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.34I 23.04%NM 22.22%EV +0.251%E +0.058%K +0.075%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.10%EV -5.98%E -3.42%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.69%EV -1.50%E -0.353%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-16 14:14 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.33%EV -0.673%E -0.156%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.25%EV -4.91%E -2.77%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.42%EV -4.98%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -1.83%E -0.430%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -5.45%E -3.09%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -10.77%E -2.80%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -1.83%E -0.430%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -5.45%E -3.09%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -10.77%E -2.80%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -1.83%E -0.430%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -5.45%E -3.09%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -10.77%E -2.80%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -1.83%E -0.430%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -5.45%E -3.09%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -10.77%E -2.80%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -1.83%E -0.430%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -5.45%E -3.09%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -10.77%E -2.80%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.23I 23.64%NM 22.45%EV -2.29%E -0.541%K -0.709%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.57%EV -6.52%E -3.75%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 4.13I 24.21%NM 22.99%EV -4.28%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 14:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.46%EV -4.14%E -0.997%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -8.13%E -4.76%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.02%EV -6.13%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-16 14:13 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.98%E -3.42%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -4.98%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-16 14:12 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.52%E -3.75%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -4.98%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.52%E -3.75%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -4.98%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.52%E -3.75%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -4.98%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-16 14:13 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.21%EV -8.13%E -4.76%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.27%EV -7.06%E -4.08%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -11.93%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.27%EV -7.06%E -4.08%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -11.93%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.27%EV -7.06%E -4.08%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -11.93%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.27%EV -7.06%E -4.08%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -11.93%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.34%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.24%EV -7.59%E -4.42%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -13.09%E -3.49%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.39%EV -8.13%E -4.76%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.35%EV -13.09%E -3.49%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.65%EV -9.74%E -5.80%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -14.25%E -3.85%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.65%EV -9.74%E -5.80%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -14.25%E -3.85%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.83%EV -6.45%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -7.59%E -4.42%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -8.45%E -2.14%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-16 14:13 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.83%EV -6.45%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -7.59%E -4.42%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -8.45%E -2.14%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-16 14:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.30%E -1.83%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-16 14:13 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.22%EV -7.06%E -4.08%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -2.66%E -0.633%K -0.831%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.59%EV -4.37%E -2.46%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -9.61%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-16 14:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.78%EV -6.52%E -3.75%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -4.98%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-16 14:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.52%E -3.75%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.30%EV -7.06%E -4.08%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -9.61%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-16 14:13 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -8.67%E -5.10%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -9.61%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-16 14:14 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -7.06%E -4.08%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -13.09%E -3.49%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-16 14:13 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.06%EV -8.76%E -2.22%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.58%EV -8.67%E -5.10%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -9.61%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.27%EV -8.76%E -2.22%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 53.30%EV -11.36%E -6.88%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.43%EV -16.56%E -4.60%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -4.91%E -2.77%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -9.61%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-16 14:13 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.04%EV -8.67%E -5.10%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -4.98%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -8.67%E -5.10%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.66%EV -7.06%E -4.08%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.98%EV -11.93%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.22%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 52.95%EV -8.13%E -4.76%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -11.93%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-16 14:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.22%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.26%EV -8.67%E -5.10%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.52%EV -10.77%E -2.80%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 53.79%EV -10.82%E -6.52%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 23.31%EV -11.23%E -2.93%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-16 14:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -11.07%E -2.87%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.10%EV -8.67%E -5.10%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -10.77%E -2.80%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -12.22%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.44%EV -8.67%E -5.10%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.10%EV -14.25%E -3.85%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -12.22%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.44%EV -8.67%E -5.10%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.10%EV -14.25%E -3.85%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -12.22%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.44%EV -8.67%E -5.10%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.10%EV -14.25%E -3.85%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-16 14:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -12.22%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.44%EV -8.67%E -5.10%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.10%EV -14.25%E -3.85%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-16 14:13 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -12.22%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.22%EV -10.28%E -6.16%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -11.93%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -13.38%E -3.57%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -10.28%E -6.16%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -13.38%E -3.57%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.61%EV -8.67%E -5.10%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -11.93%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.48%EV -13.38%E -3.57%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 53.04%EV -10.82%E -6.52%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.48%EV -13.09%E -3.49%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.14%EV -16.84%E -4.68%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 52.36%EV -10.82%E -6.52%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.49%EV -14.25%E -3.85%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-05-16 14:13 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 23.69%EV -19.15%E -5.47%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 51.18%EV -12.97%E -8.00%K -20.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.13%EV -23.52%E -7.13%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 20.6% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.11% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.30% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.59% | 0.6% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.11% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.30% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.59% | 0.6% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.11% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.30% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.59% | 0.6% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.39% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.28% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.33% | 1.8% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.42% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.25% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.33% | 4.1% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.66% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.75% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 22.59% | 6.1% | 2026-05-16 14:15 |